The Economy of Catalonia

For the first two experts listed in the table the hypothesis of Catalonia
leaving the EU and negotiating its readmission is as unthinkable as for
Avery, so they question the first «postulate» (and, consequently, the others).
Let’s see what these two people have to say:
Heribert Padrol:
I think it’s nonsensical to think that Spain, as a result of a hypothetical tantrum
and not of a rational strategic reflection, could induce its partners to allow it to exercise
a possible veto on Catalonia’s continued presence in the EU (…) Applying
game theory and taking into account that the opinion of the Community institutions
would bear great weight in a possible scenario of mutual and joint damage,
such an exit of Catalonia from the Union is not in any way foreseeable.”
Oriol Amat:
The expulsion of Catalonia by the EU is not a realistic scenario if we bear in mind
that Catalonia is a net contributor and one of the most pro-Europe nations».
Now let’s analyse the opinions of the economists who make no reference
to the possibility of Catalonia being either inside or outside the
European Union.
We may consider their common starting point to be clearly expressed in
the joint article of fifteen economists 8 (which we call the “Collective”):
In our role as economists, we do not consider it appropriate to comment on
whether or not independence would automatically mean that Catalonia would
leave the EU, since this is a matter of a legal and political nature».
Of much greater interest are the opinions on the consequences of possible
temporary exclusion from the European Union. Let’s begin with two articles
that minimized these consequences, the first one by Francesc Balcells
and the second the Collective one:
Francesc Balcells:
The key point here is how an independent Catalonia arranges its relations
with the EU, the Eurozone and Spain. […] Obviously, the maintenance of
these relations would be, in part, beyond Catalonia’s control and there is a
high risk of a Spanish veto on its continuity as a member. If this is the case, we
8. Alícia Adserà, Oriol Amat, Enriqueta Aragonés, Germà Bel, Núria Bosch, Ramon
Caminal, Xavier Cuadras, Marta Espasa, Francesc Granell, Modest Guinjoan, Elisenda
Paluzie, Alfred Pastor, Clara Ponsatí, Miquel Puig, Jacint Ros.
76 The Economy of Catalonia