The Economy of Catalonia

e obtained. Table 3 shows that the additional revenues exceed the expenditures
in all the years considered. The balance (fiscal gain obtained as an independent
State) varies depending on the economic situation. For instance, the
gain would have been 21,071 million euros in 2007 but only 2,007 million
euros in 2009 (mainly as the result of the decreased tax revenues and of the
increased expenses linked to unemployment benefits and to the countercyclical
measures taken by the Spanish central government).
These figures show the self-financing capacity of the Catalan government
and its capability of maintaining the welfare state.
This having been said, it may be noted that to the aforementioned gain
should be added the gain entailed by ceasing to contribute to the financing
of the Spanish State’s budgetary deficit burden. The existence of a
budgetary deficit implies that the public sector gets into debt – a debt
which must be repaid sooner or later through taxation. In short, a deficit
today means more taxes tomorrow. If the burden of the budgetary deficit
is taken into consideration on calculating the fiscal balance, it must
also be considered that this burden will cease to be assumed by Catalonia
on attaining independence.
Accordingly, to the gain obtained in 2008 and 2009 must be added the
gain derived from not having to assume the burden of the Spanish State’s
budgetary deficit. This means that the fiscal gain would rise to 17,205
million and 17,625 million euros in 2008 and 2009, respectively 24 (Table
3). By contrast, the Spanish central public sector’s budget showed a
surplus in the years 2006 and 2007.
Since there are years of prosperity and years of crisis in the period considered,
the average values of the additional income and expenses and of
the fiscal gain for the period 2006-2009 express the structural trend better.
Catalonia as an independent State would consequently have additional
revenues of about 49,000 million euros (25% of the GDP) and
additional expenses of about 35,000 million euros (18% of the GDP).
This represents a gain of about 14,000 million euros (7% of the GDP). If
the gain obtained by ceasing to contribute to the financing of the Spanish
State’s budgetary deficit is added to this gain, the total gain would be
over 16,000 million euros (8.5% of the GDP).
24. It should be noted that the Spanish State’s budgetary deficit in 2009 totalled
8.58% of Spain’s GDP, the highest figure reached in recent times.
142 The Economy of Catalonia