The Economy of Catalonia

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likely to be in the firing line are certain branded consumer goods, transportation, tourism from others parts of Spain, and banks, notably Caixa- Bank and Banc de Sabadell. Some companies have already shown foresight by taking preliminary steps in case the process should lead to Catalan statehood. But whatever the outcome, it is difficult to make a quantitative estimate of the negative effects of the overall process. A more serious situation could arise if the aversion towards «all things Catalan»attained such proportions that Spanish consumers began to investigate the origin of everyday or durable consumer goods, industrial products or even services. The same aversion might be shared by certain business people or chief buyers but in any case it could not last long. Firms buy products and services when it is in their interest to do so: quality and profit and loss statementsare what counts, seldom reactions based on feelings. Fourth.To carry on a successful business, companies need stability and shun uncertainty as far as they can. They usually reach decisions in a rational way, invariably in the light of their own interests. But in the case of Catalonia, we have to take into account not only the rational, business-orientated factors, but also the psychological and emotional factors which the independence process may arouse among many Spanish consumers, as well as pressure from political spheres and the media. Fifth. In Catalonia there are3,200 firms under majority foreign ownership but it is the decision of the 100 largest about possible relocation that will prove crucial. Just 2% of foreign industrial companies employed 23% of the working population while 6% accounted for 43% of Catalan exports. We may be sure that these companies are keeping a very close watch on the independence process and weighing up its possible impact on their businesses. In the short term they will pursue a «wait and see» policy, until more concrete developments enable them to assess the situation more accurately. Only if the overall conjuncture were seriously detrimental would they consider relocating. Six.The upheaval and uncertainty caused by the independence process would unquestionably hurt companies in the initial stages and would leave scars. But , according to a widely held opinion, Catalan membership in the EU would, in the long term, bring advantages and a higher standard of living, as happens in other European countries of comparable size. The changeover would offer a good opportunity to correct defects and adapt the model of society to the new times. The Catalan adminis- 202 The Economy of Catalonia
tration could be made less cumbersome and more adaptable, while fiscal policies and incentives conducive to drawing firms and investments could be designed. Many companies, for instance, have their headquarters in Ireland because corporation tax there is 12.5% of profits. The difficulty stems from the complexity of the transition period during which Catalonia would stop being an autonomous community within Spain and become a State in its own right. During this time, other factors, both positive and negative, apart from those already mentioned, will have to be taken into consideration. Seven.Attention must also be paid to the highly significantre percussions the Catalan independence process would have on the Spanish economy. All the macroeconomic variables would be affected, including GDP, government debt, the budget, fiscal revenue, the administrative structure, exports, the balance of payments deficit and level of income. The impact on the Spanish economy must be assessed so as to try to alleviate it and set up an appropriate transition period. The divorce, or separation, could have positive effects if it created a strong incentive for Spain to launch an in-depth political, economic and cultural regeneration. Eight. In order to minimise the possible adverse consequences, it is crucial for the process to unfold in a peaceful and democratic way and for Catalonia to seek membership in the EU and stand by prior commitments. In view of the importance of the issue, the period of uncertainty should be kept as short as possible, which means that the citizens of Catalonia should be consulted at the earliest opportunity. Both sides should consistently act with moderation, while the process is underway and once it is completed, fostering constructive dialogue and mutual understanding, while agreements based on reason should be sought to facilitate the transition and reduce harmful effects as far as possible. It is also important to try to rebuild as many bridges as possible with a view to future cooperation that would be beneficial to the citizens of both countries. Bibliographical references Expansión (2013) «EspecialCataluña», 4 July, p.4. Guinjoan, M. and Cuadras, X. (2012) «Sense Espanya. Balanç econòmic de la independència», Pòrtic. Impact on the number of companies and multinationals 203
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The Economy of Catalonia Questions
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Oriol Amat, Núria Bosch, Antoni Ca
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Contents Preface to the English Edi
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Preface to the English edition This
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Preface (Translated by Jordi Vilano
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Introduction (Translated by Jordi V
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1 The position of an independent Ca
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United States such as Massachusetts
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2010, Catalonia was in 64th place o
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fact, this combination of factors a
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ilar population to Catalonia and sh
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ence in emerging markets, especiall
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fact, the high proportion of multin
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egion in volume of inward investmen
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mega-regions towards sustainability
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also be confronted with the paradox
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the reasons that are emerging for a
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This 47.1% signifies a considerable
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2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 Estim
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and there would be no need for cuts
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centage of freight between Spain an
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to prevent Spain’s point-blank re
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) The effects on markets, especiall
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speak of the coefficient of central
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Bibliographical references Amat, O.
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Rodríguez Mora, J. V. (2012) «Por
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For the purposes of economic analys
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It should also be recalled that the
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The reasons for regional economic i
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their mind» about European integra
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the Copenhagen criteria, which esta
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in the European Economic Area, whic
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ing the status of member of the Uni
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3.2. In or out of the European Unio
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were to veto the request, experts e
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In November 2012, Granell expressed
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-The regulatory fragmentation that
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would have to find alternative solu
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economic shocks, any one of which,
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In my opinion, an impartial reading
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4 In or out of the euro 4.1. An ind
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Analysis of possible scenarios Scen
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official currency and financial ins
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nisms and the European interbank pa
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arising from the integration of a h
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4.2. In or out ofthe euro: certaint
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prevent or limit damage to the mult
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Let me make a short comment on the
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context of a Spain that leaves the
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Col·lectiu Wilson (2012) «Europe,
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termediation, which is performed by
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The Catalan financial system The Ca
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Financial institutions with headqua
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• The bank was put up for auction
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had risen by 16.3%, staff had been
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go to Brussels and say that they ha
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Appendix This article is complement
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The Catalan Public Sector in the Eu
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20% 18% 18.8% 16% 16.2% 15.5% 13.6%
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9% 8% 7.9% 7% 6.5% 6.4% 6.2% 5.8% 5
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It is very obvious that Madrid has
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Spain Catalonia Generalitat Variati
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- Armed Forces: in the form of army
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Pérez, F. (DIR), Cucarella, V. and
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and to the private sector. Another
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2006 2007 2008 2009 Direct taxes 17
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method, that is to say, the expense
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itory. The same applies to the prog
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2006 2007 2008 2009 Spanish State e
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e obtained. Table 3 shows that the
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with the EU in the period 2007-2013
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8 Debt and distribution of assets 2
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this study. The difference between
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Page 155 and 156: It may be asked whether the new Cat
Page 157 and 158: The main source of International La
Page 159 and 160: Principles of distribution of asset
Page 161 and 162: Immovable property of the State con
Page 163 and 164: Social Security Reserve Fund On con
Page 165 and 166: Investments according to Additional
Page 167 and 168: Forecasts Million euros 2007 2008 2
Page 169 and 170: Possible negotiation scenarios What
Page 171 and 172: Even if it were only possible to ev
Page 173 and 174: States that form part of 21st-centu
Page 175: Spanish Royal Decree 496/1987, of 1
Page 178 and 179: Social Security contributions, pens
Page 180 and 181: ury and its managing agencies (auto
Page 182 and 183: citizens tend to join the labour ma
Page 184 and 185: in the economic, social and cultura
Page 186 and 187: declaration of independence, the bo
Page 188 and 189: oycott would have a more pronounced
Page 190 and 191: the will of the people. The great m
Page 192 and 193: Guinjoan, M. and Cuadras, X. (2011)
Page 194 and 195: Denmark, Finland, Austria, the Neth
Page 196 and 197: 2012 Company Sector Sales (€m) 1
Page 198 and 199: Export companies There were 43,176
Page 200 and 201: Spain, and appreciably more than th
Page 202 and 203: Conclusions After considering how c
Page 206 and 207: IDESCAT (2013), based on data from
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Page 212 and 213: sioners, business people and/or the
Page 214 and 215: Impact on the Catalan economy In th
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Page 218 and 219: More specifically, 94.6% of pension
Page 220 and 221: 37.8% 57.8% 4.4% Yes No opinion No
Page 222 and 223: fessionally and 47.8% believe it wo
Page 225 and 226: 13 Conclusions: economic certaintie
Page 227 and 228: having less potential and less per
Page 229 and 230: Catalonia had been an independent S
Page 231: ands and a declining proportion of
Page 234: Anton Gasol. Doctor of Economics, f
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The Economy of Catalonia

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