The Economy of Catalonia

Scope of analysis
I have no intention of analysing everything that was published but rather
only what I consider a representative sample, confined to the following:
– The series of 29 articles published in La Vanguardia between 14 October
and 23 November 2012. It featured the contributions of a total
of 37 economists, who were selected by that newspaper with the aim
of providing its customary balance of the various political leanings.
This substantial number of contributors and the process by which
they were selected are what give this series of articles, in my opinion,
a representative value.
– A study published by the Wilson Initiative on its website, entitled
“Europe, Oh Europa”, which appeared on 13 November 2012.
– The studies dealing with this matter that were published by the Instituto
de Estudios Económicos (IEE) (Institute of Economic Studies)
within the document “La cuestión catalana, hoy» (The Catalan question
today) (presented on 22 November 2012 in Madrid and on 14
March 2012 in Barcelona), by Fernandez Navarrete, Clemente Polo
and Joaquin Trigo; and the overall presentation by IEE, on its website.
This series of contributions to the public debate showed a marked electoral
tone since they were presented within the forty days previous to the
elections to the Parliament of Catalonia (25 November 2012).
To set these opinions in their context, I will also mention the statements of
Spanish politicians (most of which were made during the aforementioned
period), as well as the opinions of two experts on EU enlargements and the
set of documents published by the British government on Scottish independence
(«Scotland Analysis»).
Political context
It was not the economists but rather the politicians who put the issue on
the table. We may consider that the first to do so was the central government’s
delegate in Catalonia, Llanos de Luna, who stated the following
to COPE radio on 7 April 2012:
«Catalonia would be automatically left out of the European Union [...] The
hypothetically independent Catalonia would have to request admission to the
European Union and, in the best of all cases, assuming moreover that no one
70 The Economy of Catalonia