The Economy of Catalonia

to prevent Spain’s point-blank refusal to engage in any form of dialogue
from making the independence movement unstoppable.
However – and here we enter the second phase of the game – if, despite
these efforts, independence were to become inevitable, it is not
unrealistic to think that the EU would seek to make sure it causes the
least possible damage. After all, to try to prevent the greater of two
evils is a perfectly reasonable standard of conduct in politics, and for
the EU the greatest evil would be for Catalonia to achieve independence
as a result of a harmful and hard conflict. This would mean agreement,
negotiation, and maintaining normality as far as possible. It
would also mean changing the European situation as little as possible.
The reasons in favour of this are very similar to those previously mentioned:
upheaval and instability are in no one’s interests and, above all,
an acrimonious, non-negotiated split would certainly be very harmful
to Catalonia (and probably beyond its capabilities) and also extremely
bad for Spain. The issue of debt distribution would be one of the key
reasons for this.
In short, Catalonia cannot afford to stay out of the euro and the EU. This
issue cannot be side-stepped or passed over in silence. But neither does
this mean that Catalonia is inevitably a hostage to Spain in the negotiations.
And the fact that it is not a hostage should not lead anyone, as
sometimes seems to happen, to embark on a game in which each side
appears to want to provoke the most extreme reactions from the opposing
side. Far from it: it should lead to the belief that the conflict can only
be solved through agreement and negotiation. Even in order to achieve
independence.
5) Some further strategic issues
When we assess the viability of an independent Catalonia, at least three
other points, apart from those mentioned above, call for in-depth analysis
and the most accurate empirical estimates possible.
a) The impact of decision-making power on economic growth
Having decision-making power over economic policy instruments is decisive
to growth. Indeed the Catalan economy has faced a problem that
44 Economia de Catalunya