The Economy of Catalonia

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37.8% 57.8% 4.4% Yes No opinion No Figure 16. Do you think that the process of creating a Catalan State could cause a breakdown of social cohesion in Catalonia? (% of total) Pensions 62.3% of economists think that a possible Catalan State will affect people’s pensions, compared with 27.9% who believe it will have no effect, as reflected in Figure 17. 9.8% do not know. Within the first group opinions are divided: 37.1% think that the effects would be positive, 25.2% negative. Based on employment status, employees are the most optimistic with regard to the potential effects of a Catalan State on pensions (39.3%), while business people and/or the self-employed and the unemployed are the more pessimistic (29.7% and 28.3%, respectively). It is worth noting that pensioners are those foreseeing no effects (38.8%). Taking into account the place of residence, the economists located in Girona are the group who show the most positive expectations regarding pensions in the case of a Catalan State (48.5%), in contrast with those in Barcelona (26.3%). The economists located in Lleida are those who most consider there will be no effect (36.4%). 218 The Economy of Catalonia
9.8% 37.1% 25.2% 27.9% Positively Would not affect Negatively No opinion’ Figure 17. How do you think the existence of a Catalan State would affect people’s pensions? (% of total) Impact on their profession As Figure 18 shows, 54.8% of economists believe that the establishment of a Catalan State may have an impact on their area of professional activity, while 38.4% think it would not and 6.8% express no opinion. The effect of this impact is not clear: 29.0% of members foresee a positive effect, but 25.8% suggest it may be negative. 6.8% 38.4% 25.8% 29.0% No Yes, positively Yes, negatively No opinion Figure 18. Do you think the establishment of a Catalan State may have an impact on your professional activity? (% of total) Based on employment status, in the case of a Catalan State, the unemployed are those who most foresee possible consequences for them pro- Impact of an independent Catalonia: the economists’ view 219
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The Economy of Catalonia Questions
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Oriol Amat, Núria Bosch, Antoni Ca
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Contents Preface to the English Edi
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Preface to the English edition This
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Preface (Translated by Jordi Vilano
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Introduction (Translated by Jordi V
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1 The position of an independent Ca
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United States such as Massachusetts
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2010, Catalonia was in 64th place o
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fact, this combination of factors a
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ilar population to Catalonia and sh
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ence in emerging markets, especiall
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fact, the high proportion of multin
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egion in volume of inward investmen
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mega-regions towards sustainability
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also be confronted with the paradox
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the reasons that are emerging for a
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This 47.1% signifies a considerable
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2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 Estim
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and there would be no need for cuts
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centage of freight between Spain an
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to prevent Spain’s point-blank re
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) The effects on markets, especiall
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speak of the coefficient of central
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Bibliographical references Amat, O.
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Rodríguez Mora, J. V. (2012) «Por
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For the purposes of economic analys
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It should also be recalled that the
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The reasons for regional economic i
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their mind» about European integra
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the Copenhagen criteria, which esta
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in the European Economic Area, whic
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ing the status of member of the Uni
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3.2. In or out of the European Unio
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were to veto the request, experts e
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In November 2012, Granell expressed
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-The regulatory fragmentation that
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would have to find alternative solu
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economic shocks, any one of which,
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In my opinion, an impartial reading
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4 In or out of the euro 4.1. An ind
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Analysis of possible scenarios Scen
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official currency and financial ins
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nisms and the European interbank pa
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arising from the integration of a h
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4.2. In or out ofthe euro: certaint
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prevent or limit damage to the mult
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Let me make a short comment on the
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context of a Spain that leaves the
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Col·lectiu Wilson (2012) «Europe,
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termediation, which is performed by
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The Catalan financial system The Ca
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Financial institutions with headqua
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• The bank was put up for auction
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had risen by 16.3%, staff had been
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go to Brussels and say that they ha
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Appendix This article is complement
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The Catalan Public Sector in the Eu
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20% 18% 18.8% 16% 16.2% 15.5% 13.6%
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9% 8% 7.9% 7% 6.5% 6.4% 6.2% 5.8% 5
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It is very obvious that Madrid has
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Spain Catalonia Generalitat Variati
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- Armed Forces: in the form of army
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Pérez, F. (DIR), Cucarella, V. and
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and to the private sector. Another
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2006 2007 2008 2009 Direct taxes 17
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method, that is to say, the expense
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itory. The same applies to the prog
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2006 2007 2008 2009 Spanish State e
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e obtained. Table 3 shows that the
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with the EU in the period 2007-2013
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8 Debt and distribution of assets 2
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this study. The difference between
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the State’s property and debts on
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It may be asked whether the new Cat
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The main source of International La
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Principles of distribution of asset
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Immovable property of the State con
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Social Security Reserve Fund On con
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Investments according to Additional
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Forecasts Million euros 2007 2008 2
Page 169 and 170: Possible negotiation scenarios What
Page 171 and 172: Even if it were only possible to ev
Page 173 and 174: States that form part of 21st-centu
Page 175: Spanish Royal Decree 496/1987, of 1
Page 178 and 179: Social Security contributions, pens
Page 180 and 181: ury and its managing agencies (auto
Page 182 and 183: citizens tend to join the labour ma
Page 184 and 185: in the economic, social and cultura
Page 186 and 187: declaration of independence, the bo
Page 188 and 189: oycott would have a more pronounced
Page 190 and 191: the will of the people. The great m
Page 192 and 193: Guinjoan, M. and Cuadras, X. (2011)
Page 194 and 195: Denmark, Finland, Austria, the Neth
Page 196 and 197: 2012 Company Sector Sales (€m) 1
Page 198 and 199: Export companies There were 43,176
Page 200 and 201: Spain, and appreciably more than th
Page 202 and 203: Conclusions After considering how c
Page 204 and 205: likely to be in the firing line are
Page 206 and 207: IDESCAT (2013), based on data from
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Page 210 and 211: No opinion Increase the centralisat
Page 212 and 213: sioners, business people and/or the
Page 214 and 215: Impact on the Catalan economy In th
Page 216 and 217: alternative. This is not supported
Page 218 and 219: More specifically, 94.6% of pension
Page 222 and 223: fessionally and 47.8% believe it wo
Page 225 and 226: 13 Conclusions: economic certaintie
Page 227 and 228: having less potential and less per
Page 229 and 230: Catalonia had been an independent S
Page 231: ands and a declining proportion of
Page 234: Anton Gasol. Doctor of Economics, f
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The Economy of Catalonia

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