The Economy of Catalonia

ased on three elements: Catalonia would need to go through an accession
process; it would be a slow process and subject to veto; and Catalonia’s economic
transactions would be hampered for the duration of the process.
In response to this political approach, economists expressed divergent
and, to a large extent, contradictory opinions. As usual, the differences
stemmed more from the questions which were to be answered than from
the arguments which were put forward to answer them. These questions
were the following:
– Would Catalonia automatically be a member of the EU?
– Would the economic links between Catalonia and the EU be hampered?
The economists who took part in this debate can be classified into three
groups:
– The prophets of doom. This group took a legalistic stance with respect
to the first question above, in line with the expert Granell. Additionally,
they ignore the possibility of there being any alternative to
third-country status for a Catalonia that were not to be a member of
the EU, and this led them accept the prediction that the Common
Customs’ Tariff would be applied to Catalan exports. This group includes
Juan Francisco Rubio and the authors of the IEE publication.
– The denialists. This group aligned itself with the position of the
expert Avery: “For political and practical reasons» the Catalans,
who have been EU members for some twenty years and who «have
acquired rights as European citizens», could not be required «to
leave the EU and to request readmission.» This group includes
Heribert Padrol, Oriol Amat and Casimir de Dalmau.
– The cautious. Like the previous group, this one considered it unthinkable
that there would be any interruption in the free movement
of goods, persons and capital, but they analysed the scenario in which
Catalonia’s accession to the EU were to be vetoed by Spain. In the
event of such veto, they showed that there are political and legal
mechanisms to achieve the desired results and they predicted that
such mechanisms would be applied. This group includes Francesc
Balcells, the fifteen economists of the Collective article (including
Granell himself) and the six economists of the Wilson Initiative.
80 The Economy of Catalonia