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FIJI Post-Disaster Needs Assessment Table 3: Estimated Value of Per Capita Disaster Effects per Province (F$/person) Province Damage Production Losses Total Effects Ra 7,368 2,747 10,115 Bua 3,786 6,204 9,990 Lomaiviti 5,915 2,629 8,544 Cakaudrove 3,491 2,505 5,996 Lau 2,054 1,164 3,218 Ba 2,153 581 2,734 Tailevu 915 1,133 2,048 Nadroga/Navasa 266 299 565 Naitasiri 257 173 430 Namosi 165 124 289 Serua 67 55 122 Rewa 53 24 77 Namosi 1.2 0.9 2.1 Source: Estimations by Assessment Team. The map in Figure 5 shows the estimated values of per capita disaster effects in the affected provinces. Figure 5: Geographical Distribution of Per Capita Disaster Effects Source: Estimations by Assessment Team. Figure : eograhical Distribution of Per Caita Disaster Effects A comparison made of estimated per capita production losses with average annual household income (Figure 6) reveals that TC Winston ource has stimations affected the by most ssessment impoverished Team. population strata of the country, which should inform recovery and reconstruction priorities. The population in the northern provinces of Bua and Cakaudrove (where average annual household income is F$14,100/per person) have sustained the greatest production losses. comparison made of estimated per capita production losses with average annual 7 household Despite income the fact that Figure Ba Province 6 is reveals where the highest that value TC of inston damage and losses has occurred, affected the per capita the disaster most effects impoverished for Ba residents are only of intermediate value, i.e., 2,700 F$/person. population strata of the country, which should inform recovery and reconstruction priorities. 14 Tropical The Cyclone population Winston, February in 20, the 2016 northern provinces of Bua and Cakaudrove where average annual household income is F$14,100per person have sustained the greatest production
FIJI Post-Disaster Needs Assessment Per capita production losses, F$/person 8,000 7,000 6,000 5,000 4,000 3,000 2,000 1,000 0 Bua Lomaiviti Ra Cakaudrove Lau 0 5,000 10,000 15,000 20,000 25,000 30,000 35,000 Average Annual Household Income, F$ Figure 6: Relationship between Per Capita Production Losses and Average Annual Household Income Arising from TC Winston Source: Estimations by Assessment Team. Note: The sizes of the balls in the above figure represent the ratio between production losses and household income. Summary of Economic and Social Impact Summary of Economic Impact The macroeconomic impact of TC Winston in 2016 is expected to be substantial given the significant damage incurred, particularly to key sectors, such as housing, transport, manufacturing, agriculture, electricity and communications. The losses resulting from TC Winston are estimated to reduce economic growth by 2.5 percent relative to the 2016 pre-cyclone forecast, bringing the growth rate down from 3.8 percent to 1.3 percent. However, taking into account the possible effect of recovery and reconstruction activities, assuming they start during 2016, the GDP growth rate is expected to be 2.4 percent, which is a decrease of 1.4 percent compared to the pre-cyclone baseline estimate. This revised growth also reflects the expected impact of TC Zena, which passed southeast of <strong>Fiji</strong> only six weeks after TC Winston, causing torrential rain and major flooding. The impact of TC Winston on the performance of the balance-of-payments in 2016 will be quite substantial, due to exports declining relative to pre-cyclone forecasted levels. Total exports are now projected to decline by 1.2 percent in 2016 compared to over 17 percent growth anticipated prior to the cyclone. Imports will be higher than previously expected with an inflow of machinery, equipment and materials for reconstruction and replacement of infrastructure in the housing, education, telecommunication and transport sectors. Food imports are also expected to increase due to the loss of locally grown produce. These impacts will raise the trade in goods deficit by 18.5 percent this year, which, as a percent of GDP, is now estimated to increase from 27.3 percent to 32.4 percent in 2016. The cyclone had minimal impact on the tourism sector, which is expected to fully recover during 2016. Aid in-kind and cash grants have risen following the cyclone and reconstruction financing is expected to result in higher inflows during 2016 and beyond. Overall, <strong>Fiji</strong>’s Balance of Payments Current Account deficit for 2016 is estimated to increase by 8.9 percent, driven by lower export earnings and higher import payments. This will raise the Current Account deficit to 12.9 percent of GDP (at market price) in 2016. There will be a number of negative impacts on the government’s fiscal balance. Government expenditure on disaster relief and early recovery activities are being funded through the reprioritization of line ministry budgets. Notable reallocations include top ups for social welfare programmes and food ration distribution. In addition, around F$70 million will be set aside for the upcoming residential rehabilitation and assistance programme (Help for Homes), and the diversion of funds into relief, recovery and reconstruction will reduce funds available for the government’s existing development programmes. Large additional expenditures are expected to be required once the reconstruction and recovery programmes are fully specified. In terms of impacts on revenue, value added tax (VAT) collections are expected to decline by about F$61.9 million during 2016 and there will be reductions in the Service Turnover Tax as a result of losses in the tourism sector. Tropical Cyclone Winston, February 20, 2016 15
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Damage to Namena Island Source: San
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4. Damaged Police Station on Viti L
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Malake landing, Ra, Viti Levu Sourc
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Damage to Ovalau Resort Source: Min
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