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2. Southern Taveuni, Vuna village Source: Vlad Sokhin/World Bank ECONOMIC AND SOCIAL IMPACTS 24
FIJI Post-Disaster Needs Assessment 2.1 Macroeconomic Impact 2.1.1 Pre-Disaster Economic Outlook Gross Domestic Product The Fijian economy grew at an average of 3.8 percent per annum from 2012 to 2014 on the back of higher government spending (particularly on infrastructure) and strong performances in the manufacturing, wholesale and retail, transport, tourism and financial sectors, among others. In October 2015, the Macroeconomic Committee estimated Fiji’s GDP growth at 4 percent in 2015 and 3.5 percent in 2016, driven by broad-based growth in most sectors. For 2017 and 2018, GDP growth was estimated at 3.1 percent (Figure 10). Before assessing the impact of TC Winston, the PDNA macroeconomic team had to reconsider the Macroeconomic Committee’s October 2015 forecasts in order to establish baseline estimates for 2015 to 2018, taking into account that the government’s revised 2015 and 2016 budget projections and data from key industries were not factored into the October 2015 forecast. This was to ensure that the impact of TC Winston could be properly captured based on the latest data, particularly the potential impact of the disaster on tourist arrivals and agriculture production. This led to the adoption of baseline GDP growth projections of 4.2 percent and 3.8 percent for 2015 and 2016, respectively (Figure 10). GDP Growth (%) 4.5 4.0 3.5 3.0 2.5 2.0 1.5 4.0 4.2 3.5 3.8 3.1 3.2 3.1 3.1 1.0 0.5 Figure 10: Pre-Disaster and Baseline GDP Forecast for 2015–2018 Source: Estimations by Macro Assessment Team. Trade 0.0 Fiji’s exports have grown by an annual average rate of 14.2 percent from 2010–2014, while imports have grown by 12.9 percent per annum over the same period. Export goods are comprised of such commodities as sugar, which is vulnerable to adverse weather conditions. Other major domestic exports include molasses, timber, fish, fruit and vegetables, coconut oil, gold, garments and mineral water. According to baseline projections, exports were anticipated to decline by 12.9 percent in 2015 (due to decreased exports of sugar, fruits and vegetables, and lower re-exports of mineral fuels and fish) and grow by 17.5 percent in 2016. Fiji is a net importer, which means that it is susceptible to volatility in global commodity price fluctuations, which together accounted for about 45 percent of total imports, on average, from 2010 to 2014. Baseline projections expect imports to decline by 7.3 percent in 2015 due in part to lower expected mineral fuel imports. For 2016, imports were projected to grow by 7.8 percent. Balance of Payments 2015 2016 2017 2018 Pre-Disaster GDP Baseline GDP The Current Account deficit as a percent of GDP (at market price) indicated an overall increase from 2010 to 2014, growing from 4.7 percent to 7.2 percent of GDP. Import of goods, in particular mineral fuels, continued to be the underlying reason behind the Current Account deficit throughout the period, even though it was offset by the significantly improved performance in the services and secondary income account, of which tourism receipts from strong visitor arrivals and remittances are the main contributors. Tourism earnings and remittances have shown steady growth from 2010–2014, averaging around 18.1 percent and 4.5 percent of GDP, respectively. This trend is expected to continue. Tropical Cyclone Winston, February 20, 2016 25
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Damage to Namena Island Source: San
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4. Damaged Police Station on Viti L
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Malake landing, Ra, Viti Levu Sourc
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Damage to Ovalau Resort Source: Min
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