SAGARMALA

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6 Export decision of private players and MS/HSD production capacity of refineries may determine its availability for domestic consumption Scenario analysis of amount of MS/HSD available for domestic consumption MTPA Considered base case for 2025 % MS/HSD production by refineries 56% 60% 65% Export plans of private players • Reliance SEZ exports 100% product • RIL Jamnagar and Essar Oil export 50% product • Reliance SEZ exports 100% product • RIL Jamnagar and Essar Oil export nothing • Reliance SEZ, RIL Jamnagar and Essar Oil export nothing 126 135 146 140 150 163 162 174 188 • Essar and Reliance currently export 50% of their product due to subsidized domestic market • They plan to sell 100% of the product to domestic market if market remains unregulated • SEZ rules enforce Reliance SEZ to export all of their product • GoI might relax the rules for Reliance SEZ if there is a shortage of product in India • All refineries are trying to install units that will produce more MS in place of residual fuels as the demand has gone up SOURCE: Private sector interviews; PPAC | 6
7 LPG demand in 2025 could range from nearly 29 MTPA to nearly 35 MTPA depending upon level of urbanisation and piped gas penetration Bottom-up analysis of LPG demand in 2025 MTPA Rapid urbanisation Slow urbanisation LPG Consumption 2 – (2005–2025) MTPA High penetration of piped gas 29.9 28.8 5% p.a 32.8 1 Low penetration of piped gas 34.9 33.2 +6% p.a. Assumptions Piped gas penetration Urbanisation ▪ Current penetration of piped gas – 3% of urban Indian households ▪ High penetration of piped gas – 30% of urban Indian households by 2025 ▪ Low penetration of piped gas – 10% of urban Indian households by 2025 ▪ Current urbanisation – 33% of urban Indian households ▪ Rapid urbanisation – 40% of urban Indian households in 2025 ▪ Slow urbanisation – 35% of urban Indian households in 2025 10.0 2005 18.3 2015 2025 LPG demand has grown at around 5% pa in the last 10 years and the expected growth rate is expected to be the same in the next 10 years as well 1 Under base case LPG production – Urbanisation – 37% and Piped gas penetration – 15% of urban Indian households 2 Total LPG penetration in 2025 assumed to be 85% SOURCE: IOCL “Indian LPG Market” report | 7
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SAGARMALA “Building Gateways of G
Page 8 and 9: ii Globally, ports have had a signi
Page 10 and 11: iv ■ ■ ■ Port led development
Page 12 and 13: vi Hamburg - Le Havre (HLH) range i
Page 14 and 15: viii Steel production follows an in
Page 16 and 17: x Port enabled eco-system of Steel
Page 18 and 19: xii Export-driven production is two
Page 20 and 21: xiv Overview of Shenzhen Key facts
Page 22 and 23: xvi Shenzhen had a substantial impa
Page 25 and 26: Executive summary i
Page 27 and 28: iii Comparative impact of port-led
Page 29 and 30: v Impact from Sagarmala - 2025 INR
Page 31 and 32: vii ■ ■ ■ Comparison of end-t
Page 33 and 34: ix Sagarmala: Port-led development
Page 35 and 36: xi Traffic handled at Indian ports
Page 37 and 38: xiii EXIM and domestic shipping car
Page 39 and 40: xv 6-8 potential new ports based on
Page 41 and 42: xvii
Page 43 and 44: xix
Page 45 and 46: xxi Proposed coastal economic zones
Page 47 and 48: xxiii
Page 49 and 50: xxv 40 lakh potential new direct jo
Page 51: xxvii Sagarmala could mobilise inve
Page 54 and 55: 2 -
Page 56 and 57: 4 Demand centres, production and di
Page 60 and 61: 8 LPG demand to outpace domestic pr
Page 62 and 63: 10 Even in the best case scenario,
Page 64 and 65: 12 Gas demand may be concentrated i
Page 66 and 67: 14 12
Page 68 and 69: 16 , 10 states account for 80% of c
Page 70 and 71: 18 Demand growth for thermal coal G
Page 72 and 73: 20 Example of optimisation model: N
Page 74 and 75: 22 Key clusters for coastal movemen
Page 76 and 77: 24 Steel production in India MTPA 6
Page 78 and 79: 26 Steel plants 1 relevant for coki
Page 80 and 81: 28 Imported coking coal origin by c
Page 82 and 83: 30 Iron ore movement in India, FY 1
Page 84 and 85: 32 Iron ore import: Source country
Page 86 and 87: 34 Prevalent market conditions make
Page 88 and 89: 36 — —
Page 90 and 91: 38 Almost every major plant has the
Page 92 and 93: 40 Demand and supply of cement A de
Page 94 and 95: 42 Modes used for cement transporta
Page 96 and 97: 44 Plant-wise potential to shift to
Page 98 and 99: 46 Imported finished fertilisers: O
Page 100 and 101: 48 - Methodology snapshot: For each
Page 102 and 103: 50 ■ ■
Page 104 and 105: 52 EXIM container volumes split for
Page 106 and 107: 54 Overview of expected container t
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56 Comparison of end-to-end time of
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59 2. Port modernisation Prominent
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61 Comparison of port-related KPIs
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63 Port-wise capacity utilisation C
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65 State-wise cargo traffic in 2015
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67 EXIM and domestic shipping cargo
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69 Most ports in India characterise
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71 Substantial performance change t
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73 ■ ■ Ports with cape-size han
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75 ■ ■ ■ ■ ■ ■ ■ ■
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77 Traffic forecast for West Bengal
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79 West Bengal cluster: New opportu
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83 Ports in the northern Andhra Pra
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85
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87 ■ ■ ■
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89 Northern TN cluster: New opportu
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93 Kerala cluster: New opportunitie
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95 - Ports in the Karnataka cluster
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97 Mangalore Port: New opportunitie
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101
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103 ■ ■ ■ - - - - ■
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105 Northern Maharashtra: New oppor
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107 Ports in the Saurashtra cluster
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113 New port identification framewo
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115 Traffic projection for Vadhavan
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117 Deviation from main sailing rou
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119 ■ ■ Traffic projection for
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121 Coal: Non-availability of port
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123 Traffic projection for Paradip
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125 Eastern Hinterland: Kolkata Doc
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127 Cargo handled at Haldia and Kol
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130
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132 Comparison of end-to-end time o
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134 Commodity to mode mapping Road
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136 Current rail network is congest
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138 BAGALKOT (BGK) 93.290 BELGAUM (
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140 Hinterland evacuation is domina
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142 High freight charges making rai
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144 Current crude pipeline network
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146 Current product pipeline networ
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148 NW1 is 1,620 km navigable stret
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150 National waterway - 5 Jharsugud
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152 National Waterway 2 Congested r
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154 - - Key clusters for coastal mo
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156 IB Valley/Taclher to Paradip/Dh
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158 ■ ■ ■ ■ ■ ■ ■ ■
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160 ■ ■
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162
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164 Based on the above analysis we
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166 Location justification for Tela
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168 ■ → → → ■ → → ■
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170 Enabler for increased rail shar
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172 Comparison of carrying a contai
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174 Current and potential critical
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176 ■ ■ ■ ■ ■ ■ ■ ■
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182 Four levers identified for cost
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184 ■ ■ 4. 2. ■ ■ ■ ■
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187 4. Port-led industrialisation S
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189
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191 By 2025, India may face ~15 MMT
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193 Trade balance in 2025 with plan
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195 Potential impact from each powe
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197 Limestone reserve mapping for m
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199 Potential impact from each ceme
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201 Two new proposed steel clusters
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203
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205 MARKET TRENDS Globally, overcap
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207 Foreign exchange earnings throu
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Surface ships Submarine 209 INDIA O
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211 India has a significant share i
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213 Key automotive production clust
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215 India’s auto export competive
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217 Breakdown of value chain cost o
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219 Discrete manufacturing selectio
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221 Scoring of discrete manufacturi
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223
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225 Chief purchasing officers plan
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227 Three clusters of cotton produc
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229 World leather exports Raw hides
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231 Leather production centres in I
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233 ■ ■ India lags behind the o
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235 Segment-wise contribution to gl
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237 Processed food cargo flows from
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239 Levels of food processing in In
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241 India’s export basket compris
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243 ■ ■ Potential Impact from e
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245 China has a near monopoly in ex
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247 Furniture cargo flows from Indi
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249 Comparison of Indian units in t
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251 Potential Impact from each furn
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253 Indian electronics and IT hardw
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255 Electronics supply chain Silico
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257 Hsinchu science park has grown
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259 Proposed coastal economic zones
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263 5. Coastal community developmen
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265 HDI 2007-08 0.790 Above all-Ind
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273 BPL families % BPL fishermen fa
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277 ■ ■ ■ ■ ■ ■ ■ ■
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279 ■ ■ ■ ‒ ‒ ‒ ‒ ■
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281 Indian islands Oceanic islands
Page 335:
283 Roadmap for island development
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