Informe El medio ambiente en Europa: Estado y perspectivas 2020

PART 2
The lower carbon intensity of energy
(i.e. fewer emissions from producing
and using energy) was, and is,
expected to remain an important
factor underpinning lower emissions
in the future. According to Member
States’ projections, both an increase
in renewable energy sources and a
less carbon-intensive fossil fuel mix,
with less coal than gas and lower oil
consumption, are expected to drive
reductions in emissions in the future.
3. The decrease in the energy
intensity of GDP has been the largest
contributing factor to lower GHG
emissions from fossil fuel combustion
in the past. The lower energy intensity
of economic growth can be explained
by improvements in energy efficiency
(transformation and end use, including
energy savings) and the strong uptake
of renewables, as well as by changes
in the structure of the economy and
a higher share attributable to the
services sector than to the more
energy-intensive industrial sector (3).
The decrease in the energy intensity
of GDP is expected to remain a key
factor in the transition to a low-carbon
economy and, potentially, to carbon
neutrality. This means continued
improvements in energy efficiency —
in both transformation and end use.
4. The largest emission reductions
in the period 1990-2005 occurred
in the non-energy sectors. In the
period 2005‐2015, energy-related
emissions from both production and
≈80 %
of all EU greenhouse
gas emissions come from
fossils fuels.
consumption decreased faster than
non-energy emissions. Although the
effects of the non-energy sectors
shown in the decomposition analysis
appear to be modest, the actual
emission reductions observed in
industrial processes, agriculture
and waste management have been
substantial since 1990. The largest
emission reductions are projected to
occur in the energy sector, although all
sectors of the economy are expected
to contribute to meeting climate
mitigation objectives.
Overall, the same factors driving
emission reductions in the past are
also expected to play a key role in the
future, although to a different degree.
For the EU as whole, the projected
overall estimates for reductions in
GHG emissions by 2030 (with existing
policies and measures), as reported
by Member States, are consistent
with a 30 % reduction compared with
1990 (excluding LULUCF and including
international aviation). When additional
measures are included, the gap closes
to about a 36 % projected reduction
compared with 1990. Whereas the EU
is on track to achieve its 20 % GHG
emission reduction target by 2020, more
efforts to reduce GHG emissions will be
needed to achieve its reduction target
of at least 40 % by 2030 (EEA, 2018j) ( 4 ).
These results suggest that efforts should,
together with lower energy intensity
and higher efficiency, concentrate on
further improving the carbon intensity
of energy production and consumption.
The transport sector remains one of
the key challenges to decarbonising
the economy, although all sectors of
the economy should contribute to the
emission reductions that are required
for the EU and Member States to meet
their mitigation targets.
It is worth highlighting that,
notwithstanding the different trends
by country and region, warmer winters
are another factor contributing to lower
GHG emissions in Europe. In addition,
there has also been lower fuel use
due to the lower demand for space
heating because of better insulation
standards and retrofitting in buildings.
There is a clear positive correlation
between heating degree‐days and
fuel use and emissions from the
residential sector. According to
Eurostat data (Eurostat, 2019a), the
current demand for heating in Europe
is below its long-term average (defined
as 1980‐2004). An EEA analysis on
heating and cooling showed that
( 3 ) There are various reasons for the lower share of industry in Europe’s economy. Industry can close down, become more efficient and even
relocate. Carbon footprint statistics (consumption-based approach) can be useful for assessing the impact of domestic economic activities
abroad and for analysing emission trends. Yet, the assessment of progress towards GHG mitigation targets used here is consistent with how the
targets have been defined and agreed both domestically and internationally (production-based approach). Also, while Europe may be indirectly
generating some of the emissions elsewhere for final consumption in Europe — via imported products — a share of Europe’s own emissions can
also be linked to final consumption of European goods outside Europe — via EU exports.
( 4 ) In June 2019, the European Commission published its assessment of Member States’ draft national energy and climate plans (NECPs) to
implement the Energy Union objectives and the EU 2030 energy and climate targets. On aggregate, the projected emission reductions submitted
in draft plans appear broadly consistent with the at least 40 % GHG reduction commitment under the Paris Agreement. The significant difference
between the expected emission reductions in the draft NECPs and the 2019 projections reported by Member States under the EU Monitoring
Mechanism Regulation can be explained by the different gap-filling methodologies that have been used when the ‘with additional measures’
(WAM) scenarios were not reported by Member States.
164 SOER 2020/Climate change