Informe El medio ambiente en Europa: Estado y perspectivas 2020

PART 2
FIGURE 7.6
Average global near-surface temperature since the pre-industrial period
Annual average ˚C
1.5
1.0
0.5
0.0
-0.5
1850
1860
1870
1880
1890
1900
1910
1920
1930
1940
1950
1960
1970
1980
1990
2000
2010
2020
HadCRUT4 upper limit HadCRUT4 average HadCRUT4 lower limit ERA5 GISTEMP NOAA Global Temp
Notes:
Source:
HadCRUT4, Met Office Hadley Centre and Climatic Research Unit; GISTEMP, NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies; NOAA Global
Temp, National Centers for Environmental Information; ERA5, C3S by European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts. Light
green area: 95 % confidence interval of HadCRUT4 data set. ’Pre-industrial period’ refers to 1850-1899.
EEA (2019f).
and Sweden in 2018 and Belgium,
Luxembourg, Norway and the United
Kingdom in 2019). Regional and/or
monthly temperature records were
broken in many more locations.
Human‐induced climate change made
those unprecedented heat events in
Europe, which already had considerable
impacts on ecosystems, economic
activities and human health, much more
likely (typically around 10 to 100 times)
than they would have been in an
unchanged climate (EEA, 2019f; C3S,
2019; WMO, 2019; Vautard et al., 2019).
Heat waves are projected to become
even more frequent and longer lasting
in Europe. Under a high-emissions
scenario, very extreme heat waves
(more severe than the 2003 heat wave
affecting southern and central Europe
or the 2010 heat wave affecting eastern
Europe) are projected to occur as
often as every 2 years in the second
half of the 21st century (Map 7.1). The
projected frequency of heat waves is
greatest in southern and south-eastern
Europe (Russo et al., 2014). The most
severe economic and health risks from
heat waves are projected for lowaltitude
river basins in southern Europe
and for the Mediterranean coasts,
where many densely populated urban
centres are located (Fischer and Schär,
2010). The effects of heat waves are
exacerbated in large cities due to the
urban heat island effect.
Total precipitation
Observed and projected changes
in precipitation vary substantially
SOER 2020/Climate change
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