Informe El medio ambiente en Europa: Estado y perspectivas 2020

PART 2
MAP 7.3
Projected changes in the frequency of meteorological droughts
Scenario RCP
-10°
4.5
0° 10°
70°
Scenario RCP -10°
8.5
0°
60°
70°
60°
60°
50°
50°
40°
0°
10°
20° 30°
40°
0°
10°
20° 30°
40°
Projected change in meteorological drought frequency between 1981-2010 and 2041-2070 under two climate scenarios
Note:
Number of events per 10 years
< -0.2
-0.2 to -0.1
-0.1 to 0
0 to 0.1
0.1 to 0.2
0.2 to 0.3
0.3 to 0.4
0.4 to 0.5
0.5 to 0.6
0.5 to 0.7
At least two-third of No data
the simulations used
agree on the sign of change
The maps show projected changes in drought frequency (number of events per decade) by mid-century (2041-2070 relative to
1981‐2010) for two different emissions scenario: RCP 4.5 (left) and RCP 8.5 (right). For an explanation of these scenarios, see Map 7.1.
Source: Adapted from Spinoni et al. (2018). Open access under CC BY 4.0.
≥ 0.7
Outside scope
0 500 1 000 1 500km
© European Commission. Source: Joint Research Centre
Severe floods have increased
in recent decades in Europe,
but with large interannual
variability.
there are variations across seasons
and some differences between various
drought indicators. The increased
droughts in southern Europe are
driven by reductions in precipitation
as well as by rising temperatures,
which increases evapotranspiration.
This pattern is projected to continue
in the future (Map 7.3) (EEA, 2019i).
Drought frequency is projected to
increase everywhere in Europe in
spring and summer, especially over
southern Europe, and less intensely
in autumn; winter shows a decrease
in drought frequency over northern
Europe (Spinoni et al., 2018). The
observed and projected increase
in drought conditions in southern
Europe is increasing competition
between different water users, such
as agriculture, industry, tourism and
households. For further information on
freshwater systems affected by climate
change, see Chapter 4.
Global and European sea level
Global mean sea level has increased
by about 20 cm since 1900. The rise
in global sea level has accelerated
in recent decades as a result of
human‐induced climate change.
The model simulations used in the
IPCC Fifth assessment report (AR5)
projected a rise in global sea level over
the 21st century that is likely to be
in the range of 28-98 cm (depending
on the emissions scenario), but
substantially higher increases in sea
level were not ruled out. This range
will be revised in the IPCC special
report, The ocean and cryosphere in
a changing climate, which is due to be
published in September 2019. Several
174 SOER 2020/Climate change