Tsu-2011 - ieeetsu

'
'
' 2
x
i
y
i y
i
yi
yi
( yi
yi)
1 62 63.7 -1.7 2.89
2 78 71.83 6.17 38.0689
3 70 79.96 -9.96 99.2016
4 90 88.09 1.91 3.6481
4 93 88.09 4.91 24.1081
6 103 104.35 -1.35 1.8225
jami 169.7392
nabiji 6. gamovTvaloT Sefasebis standartuli Secdoma:
n
( ' )) 2
y
1 i
y
i
i 169.7392
Sef : 6.51.
s
n2 62
Sefasebis standartuli Secdoma SeiZleba agreTve gamoiTvalos
fomuliT:
n 2 n n
i 1 i i 1 i i 1 i i
:
y b y a x y
Sef
.
s
n2
magaliTi 4. wina magaliTSi: a). gamoTvaleT Sefasebis standartuli
Secdoma ukanaskneli formulis mixedviT da b). aageT 95%-iani saprognozo
intervali 3 wlis gasamravlebeli manqanisaTvis TveSi gasawevi teqnikuri
momsaxurebis xarjisaTvis.
amoxsna. a).
nabiji 1. SevavsoT qvemoTmoyvanili cxrili:
2
x
i
y
i
xy
i i y
i
1 62 62 3844
2 78 156 6084
3 70 210 4900
4 90 360 8100
4 93 372 8649
6 103 618 10609
jami 496 1778 42186
nabiji 2. vipovoT Sefasebis standartuli Secdoma:
n y 2
b n y a n
x y
i i i i i
i i
1 1 1
42186 55.57 496 8.13 1778
sSef
: 6.48
n2 62
(gasagebia, rom 6.48 axlosaa wina magaliTSi miRebul 6.51-Tan).
b).
2 20
nabiji 1. vipovoT: xi
=20, x i =82, x 3.3 .
6
nabiji 2. xarjis prognozi, roca x 3: y(3) 8.13 355.57 79.96 .
nabiji 3. gamovTvaloT Sefasebis standartuli Secdoma. a). punqtis
mixedviT: s 6.48
Sef .
210