Tekstil Teknik Dergisi Nisan 2017 Sayısı

114 PANORAMA
200,000). Import forecasts were lowered for Turkey
(-350,000, from 3.6 to 3.3 million) and Bangladesh
(-200,000, from 6.6 to 6.4 million). Export forecasts
were increased for the U.S. (+500,000, from 12.7
to 13.2 million) and India (+100,000, from 4.4 to 4.5
million). Exports forecasts were reduced for Brazil
(-100,000, from 2.9 to 2.8 million) and Uzbekistan
(-100,000, from 1.8 to 1.7 million).
TEKSTİL & TEKNİK | NİSAN | APRIL | 2017
düşüşü 2017/18 için öngördü. Bu tahmine dair
temel varsayım rezervde tutulan pamuk ihalelerinin
verimli devam etmesidir. Çin hükümeti
ihale işlemlerini 6 Mart’ta tekrar başlattı. Satışların
bu raundu Ağustos sonuna kadar devam
edecek şekilde planlanmış olup talebin yüksek
olması durumunda uzatılabilir. Bir önceki satış
raundunda (Mayıs – Eylül) da olduğu gibi, talep
şimdiye kadar güçlü oldu. İlk dört günün
her birinde, satışa sunulan pamuğun neredeyse
tamamı Çinli işletmeler ve tüccarlar tarafında
satın alındı. Çin dışında, stokların 2017/18’de
ikinci ardışık yıl olarak üçer milyon balya artacağı
öngörülüyor. Erişilebilir arzdaki bu artış
fiyatlara aşağı yönlü baskı anlamına gelmeli.
Ancak, mevcut hasat yılındaki hareketin gösterdiği
gibi, hükümet politikaları, hazırdan satışlar
ve spekülasyonlar ile ilgili daha az öngörülebilir
değişkenler de fiyat yönünü etkileyebilir.
PRICE OUTLOOK
At their annual outlook forum in late February, the
USDA releases preliminary forecasts for the upcoming
crop year. In their early set of figures for
2017/18, the USDA indicated that a decline in ending
stocks of a magnitude similar to that predicted
for 2016/17 (6.6 million bales) can be expected
next crop year. Normally, successive declines of several
million bales would be associated with strong
upward movement in prices. However, the market
has yet to return to normal conditions after the
massive accumulation of stocks in China between
2011/12 and 2014/15. Even with large reductions in
2015/16 and 2016/17, world stocks at the end of the
current crop year are still expected to be about
50% higher than they were in the mid-2000s, a
time period when volumes were setting records
at levels a little over 60 million bales and A Index
prices were between 50 and 60 cents/lb. Another
meaningful decline in global stocks in 2017/18 will
represent another important step on the transition
back to market conditions where global ending
stocks figures will once again have direct implications
for prices, but this transition can be expected
to take several more years. Central to that process
will be the drawdown of stocks in China and the
elimination of the accessibility related distinction
between Chinese stocks and stocks in the rest of
the world. In the current crop year, Chinese stocks
are expected to fall 9.3 million bales (from 58.2 million
in 2015/16 to 48.9 million). Early USDA forecasts
predict a reduction of a similar size in 2017/18. A key
assumption relative to that forecast is continued
uptake at auctions of reserve-held cotton. The Chinese
government reinitiated the auction process
March 6th. The current round of sales is scheduled
to run through the end of August, but it can be extended
if demand is strong. As was the case during
the previous round of sales (May-September),
demand has been strong thus far. In each of the
first five days, essentially all of the cotton offered
for sale was purchased by Chinese mills and traders.
Outside of China, stocks are forecast to rise
by about three million bales for a second consecutive
crop year in 2017/18. This increase in available
supply should imply downward pressure on prices.
However, as movement in the current crop year
has shown, less predictable variables associated
with government policies, on-call sales, and speculation
will also influence price direction.