TESTING INTERNATIONAL PRICE TRANSMISSION UNDER ...

More documents

Recommendations

Info

International Soft Wheat Markets Under Policy Intervention demand is much less concentrated than the export supply (USDA 2005, p.10; see figure 4.4). The EU is a major player, being amongst both the largest exporters and the largest importers; but to whom the “price leadership” on world wheat markets belongs is an open question, to which empirical works have given different answers. Amongst the five world major players (Argentina, Australia, Canada, the EU and the US), Mohanty et al. (1999) show that there is no distinct leader 39 . However, in this work, the US price will be assumed to be representative of the world one. This seems a reasonable assumption; since 1975-76, the US share of global exports has fluctuated between 25 and 45 percent of the world total (USDA 2005, p.8; figure 4.2). 50.000 40.000 30.000 20.000 10.000 0 1961 1963 1965 1967 Figure 4.1 World wheat exports (1000 tonnes) 1969 1971 1973 1975 1977 1979 1981 Source: Faostat 2007 39 They find out that, while the US price is affected by the Canadian and the Australian prices only, the EU responds to US and Canadian changes but doesn’t have any influence on their prices. The EU responds to the US, but the reverse is not true. Previous studies (see Mohanty et al. 1999), some of which could be misspecified for not taking into account cointegration) get different results: some show that there is no significant leadership role between the US and Canada, while others find a strong leadership role for Canada for durum and Hard Red Spring markets. Goodwin and Schroeder (1991) find that both the US and Canada have a significant effect on the price of competing exporters but also that, while the US has an effect on Canada, the reverse is not true; they consider the US as a price leader in the international wheat market. Dawson and Sanjuan (2007) find that Canada is the price leader in the relation with the US price for hard wheats. In Ghoshray and Lyoid (2003) Canada is found to be the price leader in the North American market for hard wheat exports. 1983 1985 Russian Federation Ukraine Argentina Australia Canada US EU 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 55
International Soft Wheat Markets Under Policy Intervention 100% 80% 60% 40% 20% 56 0% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% 1961 1961 1963 1963 1965 Figure 4.2 World wheat exports (share of the world total) 1967 1969 1971 1973 1975 Source: Faostat 2007 1977 1979 1981 Source: Faostat 2007 Figure 4.3 World wheat exports (cumulated share of the world total) 1965 1967 1969 1971 1983 1985 1987 Source: Faostat 2007 1989 1991 1993 Argentina Australia Canada US EU 1973 1975 1977 1979 1981 1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 Argentina Australia Canada US EU World = 100% 1995 1995 1997 1997 1999 1999 2001 2001 2003 2003 2005 2005
Page 1 and 2:
TESTING INTERNATIONAL PRICE TRANSMI
Page 3 and 4:
Associazione “Alessandro Bartola
Page 6 and 7: Index 1 INTRODUCTION ..............
Page 8 and 9: 1 INTRODUCTION The notion of “pri
Page 10 and 11: Introduction These recent phenomena
Page 12: Introduction Whereas the Common Agr
Page 15 and 16: Price Transmission and the Law of O
Page 24 and 25: 3 EMPIRICAL TESTS FOR SPATIAL PRICE
Page 26 and 27: Empirical Tests for Spatial Price A
Page 32 and 33: = β 2 i0 Empirical Tests for Spati
Page 48 and 49: ∆p + t ∑ ⎡β⎤ ' ⎡ p t =
Page 54 and 55: 4 INTERNATIONAL SOFT WHEAT MARKETS
Page 58 and 59: 30.000 20.000 10.000 0 1961 1963 19
Page 60 and 61: International Soft Wheat Markets Un
Page 70 and 71: 250 200 150 100 50 1978:12 Internat
Page 76 and 77: 5 EMPIRICAL ANALYSIS: COINTEGRATION
Page 78 and 79: Empirical Analysis: Cointegration M
Page 82 and 83: α LM test ARCH(13) Empirical Analy
Page 96 and 97: 6 EMPIRICAL ANALYSIS: COINTEGRATION
Page 106 and 107:
Empirical Analysis: Cointegration M
Page 108 and 109:
Page 110:
Page 113 and 114:
Concluding Remarks These models rep
Page 116 and 117:
REFERENCES Alderman, H., 1992. Inte
Page 118 and 119:
References agricultural policies: s
Page 120 and 121:
References Isard, P., 1977. How far
Page 122:
References Thompson, S. R., Sul, D.
Page 125 and 126:
Annexes 124 Annex A - Empirical ana
Page 127 and 128:
Annexes METHODOLOGY DATA USED MAJOR
Page 129 and 130:
Page 131 and 132:
Page 133 and 134:
Page 135 and 136:
Page 137 and 138:
Page 139 and 140:
Annexes Variable swfr 138 Annex B -
Page 141 and 142:
Annexes Variable swfr 140 Table B.3
Page 143 and 144:
Annexes 142 Table B.7 - Unit root t
Page 145 and 146:
Annexes 144 Table C.5 - Cointegrati
Page 147 and 148:
Annexes 146 Table D.4 - Unit root t
Page 149 and 150:
Annexes 148 Annex E - Unit root tes
Page 151 and 152:
Annexes Table E.5 - Unit root tests
Page 153:
The notion of “price transmission
show all

TESTING INTERNATIONAL PRICE TRANSMISSION UNDER ...

You also want an ePaper? Increase the reach of your titles

Delete template?

Save as template?