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2.1 RIFT VALLEY FEVER OVERVIEW CHAPTER 2: BACKGROUND To predict and map areas of Virginia at risk for Rift Valley fever virus establishment and transmission to humans, it is necessary to understand the epidemiology of the disease in the regions in which it has historically been recorded (Rogers and Randolph 2003). This includes an understanding of the pathogen, competent vectors, vertebrate hosts and routes of transmission. Also, it is essential is to understand the ecological dynamics in which transmission takes place and the pattern of the disease – both the distribution in space and changes with time. This baseline knowledge is essential to estimate the likelihood of RVF virus to emerge and become established in regions of Virginia. 2.1.1 BIOLOGY OF RIFT VALLEY FEVER VIRUS The RVF virus is a member of the genus Phlebovirus in the family Bunyaviridae (Woods 2002, CDC 2004b). The virus replicates in mosquitoes and in vertebrates quickly and achieves an extremely high concentration primarily in the host liver and other reticuloendothelial cells (Kasari et al. 2008). Experiments by Findlay (1931) showed that the virus was stable at 27°C in buffered solutions within the pH range 6.9-7.3 for at least 24h (EFSA 2005). The virus can survive at ambient temperature and also when frozen or lyophilized, but it is sensitive to acidic conditions and is readily inactivated by lipid solvents 11
(e.g., ether, chloroform), detergents and common disinfectants (e.g., solutions of sodium or calcium hypochlorite) (OIE 2008). RVF virus is a zoonotic pathogen endemic to Africa (Peters and Linthicum 1994). The susceptibility to and severity of RVF virus infection in numerous vertebrates (e.g., cattle, sheep, goats, camels, rodents, wild ruminants, buffaloes, antelopes, and wildebeest) has been determined during epizootics and in laboratory studies (Table 2.1). Although RVF virus infects a wide range of hosts, including humans, the most significant infections occur in domestic livestock (e.g., sheep, cattle, goats, camels, and buffalo). Table 2.1. Vertebrates susceptible to RVF virus infection. Highly fatal b Moderate disease c Mild and/or inapparent disease d Refractory to disease Lambs e Humans f Cats Swine Calves e Sheep Dogs Birds Kids e Goats Equines Reptiles Puppies e Camels Monkeys Amphibians Kittens Buffalo Mice Rodents g Hamsters Cattle a Information derived from sources cited in text and table modified from Finlay 1931, House et al. 1992, and EFSA 2005. b Near 100% mortality, high viremia. c Illness (with some mortality), abortion, and viremia. d Viremia, some illness or no clinical disease. e Less than 1 week of age. In older young, mortality rate is greater in lambs than in kids or calves (20-70%). f Approximately 1% of humans infected with RVF virus develop severe to fatal disease. g Disease may range from mild to highly fatal depending on species and virus strain. 12
Page 1 and 2: Using Remote Sensing, Ecological Ni
Page 3 and 4: DEDICATION This is dedicated to my
Page 5 and 6: Lastly, I would like to thank all o
Page 7 and 8: CHAPTER 4: RESULTS ................
Page 9 and 10: LIST OF FIGURES Figures Page 2.1 Kn
Page 11 and 12: AUC - Area Under the Curve LIST OF
Page 13 and 14: ABSTRACT USING REMOTE SENSING, ECOL
Page 15 and 16: Keywords Rift Valley fever, risk as
Page 17 and 18: systematically inventory and monito
Page 19 and 20: populations), human demographics an
Page 21 and 22: The geographic distribution of pote
Page 23 and 24: human and animal health, economic l
Page 25: 1.8 ORGANIZATION OF DISSERTATION Th
Page 29 and 30: (Imam et al. 1979, Davies and Marti
Page 31 and 32: have demonstrated that wild ruminan
Page 33 and 34: flooding of grassland depressions c
Page 35 and 36: and created mosquito breeding habit
Page 37 and 38: may transmit the RVF virus mechanic
Page 39 and 40: virus during inter-epizootic period
Page 41 and 42: grown by nearly 9% per year (Tatem
Page 43 and 44: animals during RVF outbreaks or col
Page 45 and 46: sufficient and continued contact be
Page 47 and 48: Environmental factors are directly
Page 49 and 50: animals could arrive in an uninfect
Page 51 and 52: GIS technology and RS data has been
Page 53 and 54: NDVI is calculated as a normalized
Page 55 and 56: In September 2006, the RVF forecast
Page 57 and 58: In the U.S. RVF is not present and
Page 59 and 60: changes in mosquito populations in
Page 61 and 62: hosts that are widely dispersed thr
Page 63 and 64: mountain range of the Appalachian M
Page 65 and 66: The land area of Hampton Roads incl
Page 67 and 68: 52 Table 3.1. Primary data sets and
Page 69 and 70: Table 3.2. Sources of Virginia mosq
Page 71 and 72: Figure 3.3. Cattle Density in Virgi
Page 73 and 74: Figure 3.6. 2006 Deer Abundance Est
Page 75 and 76: Land-Cover Global land-cover data a
Page 77 and 78:
Figure 3.8. Virginia Land-cover Nor
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Figure 3.9. June 2006 Normalized Di
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Table 3.4. Worldclim interpolated c
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3.2.5 DATA PROCESSING All data sets
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normalize differences among surveil
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for three regions of Virginia - Nor
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Correlation analyses The Pearson‟
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of maximum entropy (i.e., that is m
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When test data are available, MaxEn
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Algebra tool in the ArcGIS Spatial
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CHAPTER 4. RESULTS 4.1 POTENTIAL RV
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1. If a native U.S. vector can tran
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Bioecology of Species Selected for
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ditches, animal waste lagoons, and
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90 Mosquito Species Typical Habitat
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The majority of mosquitoes were col
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Table 4.5. Virginia competent vecto
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Page 113 and 114:
Page 115 and 116:
4.3 MOSQUITO DENSITY CORRELATIONS W
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102 Table 4.8. Mean and range of ea
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Regional graphical analyses In Figu
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Population Density (mean daily trap
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Page 125 and 126:
Competent vector species were plott
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Page 129 and 130:
Predictor correlation analyses Whil
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temperature of the coldest month (b
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data. Mosquito populations tend to
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120 Predictor Variable Northern Vir
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122 was 0.003. At this threshold, t
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124 The Jackknife test of variable
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126 4.5 RISK OF RVF ESTABLISHMENT A
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128 The weighted suitability modeli
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CHAPTER 5. DISCUSSION 5.1 ENVIRONME
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heavily on rainfall as do the predo
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5.2 ENVIRONMENTAL-CLIMATIC VARIABLE
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study; predicted suitable habitat w
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state. The high risk in this region
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The results of this study indicate
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It is recommended that species dive
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individually and over smaller time
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146 APPENDIX A: RVF COMPETENT VECTO
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148 Figure A.3. Ae. sollicitans dis
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150 Figure A.5. Ae. triseriatus dis
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152 Figure A.7. Cx. pipiens distrib
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154 Figure A.9. Cx. salinarius dist
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Desiccation - drying. Diapause - ph
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Larva - immature form of certain or
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Vector competence - the vector comp
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REFERENCES Ackerman GA, Giroux J. A
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Brown H, Duik-Wasser M, Andreadis T
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Diallo M, Nabeth P, Ba K, Sall AA,
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Glass GE, Cheek JE, Patz JA, Shield
Page 185 and 186:
Komar O, Robbins MB, Klenk K, Blitv
Page 187 and 188:
NASA Earth Observatory (EO) Measuri
Page 189 and 190:
Phillips SJ, Dudík M, Schapire RE.
Page 191 and 192:
Tatem AJ, Hay SI, Rogers DJ. Global
Page 193 and 194:
WHO Disease Outbreak News [Internet
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