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2.1.3 GEOGRAPHIC DISTRIBUTION Since the first major outbreak of RVF was recorded close to Lake Naivasha in Kenya in 1930-1931 (Daubney et al. 1931, CDC 2004b), RVF outbreaks in Africa have occurred as far north as Egypt, throughout most of sub-Saharan Africa and as far south as Southern Africa (House et al. 1992, Davies and Martin 2003). One of the most notable epizootics of RVF occurred in Kenya in 1950-1951 and resulted in the death of an estimated 100,000 sheep (CDC 2004b). The 1977 RVF outbreak in Egypt resulted in both animal and human cases and is believed to have started due to the importation of RVF virus infected domestic animals from Sudan (Gad et al. 1986, Peters and Linthicum 1994). In 1987 transmission of the RVF virus to humans in West Africa (Senegal, Mauritania) was linked to the altered interactions between humans and mosquitoes that resulted from flooding of the lower Senegal River during construction of the Senegal River dam project (CDC 2004b). In 1997- 1998 a RVF outbreak in East Africa affected 89,000 people and caused over 400 deaths (Gerdes 2004). A severe form of the disease was seen in Mauritania (1998) where many thousands of people became sick, 200 people died, and abortion losses in livestock were heavy (CDC 2004b, Gerdes 2004). The 2000 outbreak in Saudia Arabia and Yemen was particularly alarming as this was the first time RVF virus was detected outside the African continent (Ahmad 2000, Jupp et al. 2002, Anyamba et al. 2006), and it demonstrated the potential for the virus to spread with devastating consequences to previously uninfected areas with a variety of different ecological conditions (e.g., wet and tropical areas such as the Gambia, hot and arid areas such as Yemen, irrigated regions such as the Senegal River valley) (Chevalier et al. 2004a). As in other Rift Valley fever outbreaks, the November 2006 outbreak in the horn of Africa began after several months of heavy rains that caused floods 19
and created mosquito breeding habitats. In just four months, 155 people had died, and the outbreak had forced the closure of livestock markets in Kenya devastating the economy of the region (CDC 2007). From November 2006 through March 2007 RVF outbreaks occurred in Somalia, Tanzania, Sudan, and Kenya (ProMed Mail 2007). In Kenya alone, there were 684 human cases with 155 deaths (Linthicum et al. 2008). The most recent cases of clinical disease or infection (without clinical disease) involving domestic ruminant livestock and humans have occurred in Madagascar, South Africa, and Sudan (WHO 2008, OIE 2008, Kasari et al. 2008) (Figure 2.1). 20
Page 1 and 2: Using Remote Sensing, Ecological Ni
Page 3 and 4: DEDICATION This is dedicated to my
Page 5 and 6: Lastly, I would like to thank all o
Page 7 and 8: CHAPTER 4: RESULTS ................
Page 9 and 10: LIST OF FIGURES Figures Page 2.1 Kn
Page 11 and 12: AUC - Area Under the Curve LIST OF
Page 13 and 14: ABSTRACT USING REMOTE SENSING, ECOL
Page 15 and 16: Keywords Rift Valley fever, risk as
Page 17 and 18: systematically inventory and monito
Page 19 and 20: populations), human demographics an
Page 21 and 22: The geographic distribution of pote
Page 23 and 24: human and animal health, economic l
Page 25 and 26: 1.8 ORGANIZATION OF DISSERTATION Th
Page 27 and 28: (e.g., ether, chloroform), detergen
Page 29 and 30: (Imam et al. 1979, Davies and Marti
Page 31 and 32: have demonstrated that wild ruminan
Page 33: flooding of grassland depressions c
Page 37 and 38: may transmit the RVF virus mechanic
Page 39 and 40: virus during inter-epizootic period
Page 41 and 42: grown by nearly 9% per year (Tatem
Page 43 and 44: animals during RVF outbreaks or col
Page 45 and 46: sufficient and continued contact be
Page 47 and 48: Environmental factors are directly
Page 49 and 50: animals could arrive in an uninfect
Page 51 and 52: GIS technology and RS data has been
Page 53 and 54: NDVI is calculated as a normalized
Page 55 and 56: In September 2006, the RVF forecast
Page 57 and 58: In the U.S. RVF is not present and
Page 59 and 60: changes in mosquito populations in
Page 61 and 62: hosts that are widely dispersed thr
Page 63 and 64: mountain range of the Appalachian M
Page 65 and 66: The land area of Hampton Roads incl
Page 67 and 68: 52 Table 3.1. Primary data sets and
Page 69 and 70: Table 3.2. Sources of Virginia mosq
Page 71 and 72: Figure 3.3. Cattle Density in Virgi
Page 73 and 74: Figure 3.6. 2006 Deer Abundance Est
Page 75 and 76: Land-Cover Global land-cover data a
Page 77 and 78: Figure 3.8. Virginia Land-cover Nor
Page 79 and 80: Figure 3.9. June 2006 Normalized Di
Page 81 and 82: Table 3.4. Worldclim interpolated c
Page 83 and 84: 3.2.5 DATA PROCESSING All data sets
Page 85 and 86:
normalize differences among surveil
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for three regions of Virginia - Nor
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Correlation analyses The Pearson‟
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of maximum entropy (i.e., that is m
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When test data are available, MaxEn
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Algebra tool in the ArcGIS Spatial
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CHAPTER 4. RESULTS 4.1 POTENTIAL RV
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1. If a native U.S. vector can tran
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Bioecology of Species Selected for
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ditches, animal waste lagoons, and
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90 Mosquito Species Typical Habitat
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The majority of mosquitoes were col
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Table 4.5. Virginia competent vecto
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Page 113 and 114:
Page 115 and 116:
4.3 MOSQUITO DENSITY CORRELATIONS W
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102 Table 4.8. Mean and range of ea
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Regional graphical analyses In Figu
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Population Density (mean daily trap
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Competent vector species were plott
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Page 129 and 130:
Predictor correlation analyses Whil
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temperature of the coldest month (b
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data. Mosquito populations tend to
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120 Predictor Variable Northern Vir
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122 was 0.003. At this threshold, t
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124 The Jackknife test of variable
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126 4.5 RISK OF RVF ESTABLISHMENT A
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128 The weighted suitability modeli
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CHAPTER 5. DISCUSSION 5.1 ENVIRONME
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heavily on rainfall as do the predo
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5.2 ENVIRONMENTAL-CLIMATIC VARIABLE
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study; predicted suitable habitat w
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state. The high risk in this region
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The results of this study indicate
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It is recommended that species dive
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individually and over smaller time
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146 APPENDIX A: RVF COMPETENT VECTO
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148 Figure A.3. Ae. sollicitans dis
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150 Figure A.5. Ae. triseriatus dis
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152 Figure A.7. Cx. pipiens distrib
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154 Figure A.9. Cx. salinarius dist
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Desiccation - drying. Diapause - ph
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Larva - immature form of certain or
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Vector competence - the vector comp
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REFERENCES Ackerman GA, Giroux J. A
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Brown H, Duik-Wasser M, Andreadis T
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Diallo M, Nabeth P, Ba K, Sall AA,
Page 183 and 184:
Glass GE, Cheek JE, Patz JA, Shield
Page 185 and 186:
Komar O, Robbins MB, Klenk K, Blitv
Page 187 and 188:
NASA Earth Observatory (EO) Measuri
Page 189 and 190:
Phillips SJ, Dudík M, Schapire RE.
Page 191 and 192:
Tatem AJ, Hay SI, Rogers DJ. Global
Page 193 and 194:
WHO Disease Outbreak News [Internet
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