A better world is possible - Global Commons Institute

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Copyright Bruce Nixon 2010. All rights reserved. This electronic copy is provided free for personal, non-commercial use only. www.brucenixon.com has not fulfilled the hopes of citizens, and Kofi Annan, former UN Secretary General who brokered the peace deal, has warned Kenya's leaders that they are "losing momentum" in delivering the badly needed reforms to address Kenya's underlying problems and failing to face up to the big decisions needed to bring about change. However, at least peace has been established. It is to be hoped that citizen pressure will ensure that the necessary action will be taken. Resources for action and to increase your understanding of non-military strategies to prevent and resolve conflict: CND, Campaign Against Arms Trade, Conscience’s Peace Tax Campaign, Darfur Peace & Development, Landmine Action, Ministry for Peace, National Campaign for a Peace Tax Fund, Washington, D.C., Network for Peace, Open Democracy, Oxford Research Group, Peace Pledge Union, Peace Tax International, Reprieve, Responding to Conflict, Rethink Trident, RoadPeace included as a road peace campaign, Sustainable Security – Global responses to global threats, The Elders, founded by Nelson Mandela, UN Conflict Prevention Framework Team, Unlock Democracy - War Powers and Treaties consultation, World Future Council. 194
Copyright Bruce Nixon 2010. All rights reserved. This electronic copy is provided free for personal, non-commercial use only. www.brucenixon.com Chapter 15 - After Copenhagen – Opportunities and Challenges March 2010 Acknowledgements I am indebted to the Schumacher College course – After Copenhagen – Opportunities and Challenges, March 2010 and contributors including Ian Christie, Clare Short, Miriam Kennett, Alex Randall and Lotta Hedström whose notes of his talk augmented mine. Thanks also to Alice Cutler’s article Copenhagen Chaos published in Ethical Consumer March/April 2010; The International Institute for Environment and Development (IIED) COP 15 - Review and analysis; the BBC Website and the Copenhagen Accord Wiki. What happened? The chaotic UN Conference on Climate Change in Copenhagen (COP 15*) 7 th to 18 th December, 2009, was a huge disappointment, especially after all the hopeful worldwide campaigning by millions of citizens and NGOs (* known as COP 15 because it is the 15th Conference of Parties since the first held in Berlin in 1992). In the run-up to the summit, there had been a great spirit of optimism. Campaigns like Age of Stupid had rallied thousands of people. Many hoped that COP 15 would lead to a legally binding international treaty with corresponding targets and actions to limit global warming to 2c above pre-industrial temperatures. This figure is widely regarded as the absolute minimum if disaster is to be prevented. However, during the summit, small island nations and vulnerable coastal countries demanded a binding deal to limit emissions to a level preventing temperatures rises above 1.5c. But the demands of millions of campaigners were not enough. The Copenhagen Accord On the final Friday evening, after almost two weeks of little progress, an accord was drawn up by a core group of twenty five heads of state, so-called “friends of the chair”, mainly from developed and leading developing countries. This meeting was held in secret in a room separate from the rest of the conference. The Copenhagen Accord was based on a proposal tabled by a US-led group of five nations - including China, India, Brazil, South Africa and the EU. Essentially it was a deal between the US and big emerging nations. The Accord is extremely weak, with no legally binding targets or plans. China, heading towards becoming the dominant world power, would not agree to anything that would jeopardise its economic development, largely based on abundant coal, nor would it agree to verification. But it would fulfil its previously stated commitments. China’s position tended to be supported by India. Europe wanted a 30% reduction in CO2 emissions by 2020 and a deal with legally binding targets. Brazil was prepared to make strong commitments. US President Obama had wanted emission reduction targets by large emitters and internationally verifiable actions. However, he said that, if they had waited for a binding agreement, no progress would have been made. Clearly he was also constrained by what was possible to enact back home in the US House of Representatives and the Senate. One commentator, present in the room, said that China wrecked the talks and China's Prime Minister Wen Jiabao humiliated Obama by not attending himself, sending his deputy instead, and he aimed to put Western nations in the wrong. However, it appears that he did not actually receive the invitation to this core group meeting. China has since pledged to lower its carbon dioxide emissions per unit of gross domestic product (GDP) by 40 to 45 percent by 2020 compared with 2005 levels. At the end of January Wen also wrote to UN Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon and Danish Prime Minister Lars Lokke Rasmussen, stating that China highly commends and supports the Copenhagen Accord. It is better to keep an open mind and trust people’s integrity. 195
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