A better world is possible - Global Commons Institute

Copyright Bruce Nixon 2010. All rights reserved. This electronic copy is provided free for personal, non-commercial use only.
www.brucenixon.com
A “global energy revolution” is needed yet there is no evidence of any Peak Oil contingency plans. George
Monbiot’s article Cross your fingers and carry on, published in the Guardian, 14 th April 2009, is extremely
worrying. He reported his interview with the Chief Economist of the International Energy Agency (IEA), who
said that global conventional oil would plateau in 2020 and a “global energy revolution” is needed. George
Monbiot quoted the conclusions of Robert L Hirsch, commissioned by the US Department of Energy, who
warned that “Without timely mitigation, the economic, social and political costs will be unprecedented” and
that to avoid global economic collapse, we need to begin “a mitigation crash program 20 years before
peaking.” That makes us nearly ten years too late. From conversations with UK government officials, he
could find no evidence of any contingency plans to avoid disaster.
Imagine the situation at the end of the 21st Century when oil and natural gas supplies may be largely
exhausted. Imagine the scale of the change needed in a world economy based on fossil fuel and nonrenewable
resources. Imagine the impact on construction and farming. There will have to be a complete
change in the way we live. If we do not adapt soon enough, there is a real possibility of global collapse,
widespread unemployment and starvation. The global economy, and our unsustainable lifestyles, based on
abundant cheap oil, will be transformed. The recession, keeping down oil, gas consumption and CO2
emissions, is the calm before the storm.
We need to completely rethink the global economic system.
The case for “free trade” and global sourcing, the basis of the global economic system, must be re-thought.
Nations and regions will need to be free to work out their own policies and become far more self-sufficient.
This will be a problem for countries like UK who have lost most of their manufacturing capacity and a
substantial percentage of their agriculture. Our whole global economic system - based on global sourcing for
lowest cost, and on global and national distribution systems are dependent on cheap fossil fuel. Electric
power for vehicles and trains will not offer a sustainable solution whilst electricity continues to be mainly
generated by using fossil fuel. Oil is embedded in almost everything we consume: fuel, power, heating,
transport, plastics, fabrics, packaging, food and utensils. Oil, especially, needs to be treated as a precious
resource to be used sparingly and increasingly heavily taxed at source to discourage its unnecessary use and
provide funding for the green revolution and measures to ease the transition.
Our supermarket and superstore system for distributing food, household essentials and other goods is
unsustainable and may not survive. Local food production and distribution may supersede it for many
reasons. Could we see supermarket buildings converted into market halls for small producers and traders
and a resurgence of local shops and businesses?
Food – the implications of peak oil for food
Food security is at risk. As a result of this oil based industrialised and globalised food production and
distribution system, we are now a net importer of food, heavily dependent on other countries. Our self –
sufficiency is estimated at 60%. Other data gives a UK self-sufficiency figure of 49%. That overall figure hides
much larger gaps, such as 94% of all fruit and over 50% of vegetables consumed in the UK are imported. 70%
of animal feed used in EU is imported. Another threat to food security is the domination of food production
of by a few very large global corporations and the small number of food crop varieties that has resulted. One
owns 23% of global seed production. That makes us vulnerable to business collapse and exposes us to
famine.
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