A better world is possible - Global Commons Institute

Copyright Bruce Nixon 2010. All rights reserved. This electronic copy is provided free for personal, non-commercial use only.
www.brucenixon.com
Section A: - Climate change.
Every day the warnings get stronger.
The Government’s Stern Review set out dire consequences and warned that the global cost of climate
change to business and governments could reach 20% of world Gross Domestic Product (GDP) if nothing is
done. Without action, greenhouse gas emissions are projected to almost double by 2030. With no policies to
curb pollution, the most likely increase in temperatures is 5C by 2050. In 2007 The Intergovernmental Panel
on Climate Change (IPCC) forecast that sea levels might rise by 28cm (11 inches) to 43cm (17inches) by 2100,
although 59cm (nearly 2 feet) is a possibility. This is not just a problem for millions in poor countries like
Bangladesh. It is already a problem for us. Around 5 million people live in flood risk areas in England and
Wales and many coastal areas, in East Anglia for example, face great anxiety about their future. Unstable
climate, heat waves and hurricane strength winds will increase. Hundreds of millions will suffer water
shortages; up to 30% of species risk extinction and food production will be hit. Christian Aid say climate
change is already killing 300,000 a year in poor countries.
Has climate change already gone beyond the point of no return? The New Economics Foundation (nef)
argues that, as of July 2010, we have only 77 months before we reach a crucial tipping point.
No excuse for failing to act. In March 2009, a group of marine experts meeting in Copenhagen suggested
that IPCC scientists had made a drastic underestimation of the problem and oceans were likely to rise twice
as fast. Low lying countries will be particularly affected but low lying areas of Britain, such as the Thames
Estuary, will suffer. Over 2,500 climate experts from 80 countries, at an emergency summit in Copenhagen,
concluded that there was now "no excuse" for failure to act on global warming. Failure to agree strong
carbon reduction targets in political negotiations could bring "abrupt or irreversible" shifts in climate that
"will be very difficult for contemporary societies to cope with". They said carbon emissions have increased
more than anyone thought possible, and the world's natural carbon stores could be losing the ability to soak
up human pollution.
Amongst possible threats are:
A 4C temperature rise could turn swaths of southern Europe into desert.
Sea levels rise twice as fast as official estimates predict.
Modest warming unleashes a carbon "time bomb" from Arctic soils.
A failure to cut emissions renders half of the world uninhabitable.
Rising temperatures kill off 85% of the Amazon rainforest.
There could be mass starvation and mass migration to the North.
Several experts at the conference warned that temperatures are likely to soar beyond the 2C target set by
European politicians. "The 2C target is gone and 3C is difficult. I think we're heading for 4C at least," one said.
Politicians have failed to take on board the severe consequences of failing to cut world carbon emissions,
according to Brown’s economic adviser, Nicholas Stern. Acting now would be far cheaper than to delay. And
this could provide much needed jobs for many people. Scientists issued a plea for world leaders to curb
greenhouse gas emissions or face an ecological and social disaster. Veteran climate campaigner, James
Lovelock predicts 5 degree higher temperatures, 1 to 3 feet rise in sea levels, mass migration and a reduction
in population to 1bn because of the Earth’s inability to feed the human population.
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