patterns of population growth in nepal - Institute for Social and ...

42
techniques to obtain plausible estimates of mortality
and fertility for Nepal for various time
periods.
4.1 Mortality
1a. Crude Death Rate (CDR):
Various estimates of CDR available for Nepal
are presented in Table 4.1.
It is quite evident
from this table that in the early 19505 CDR was quite
high in Nepal and it varied between 30 and 44 (UN,
1960; Thakur, 1963) in early 1950s and between 22 and
32 in early 1960s (Gubhaju, 1974; Krotk1 and Thakur,
1971). The variations could be attributed to the
different techniques adopted to estimate this rate.
For example, Thakur after using backward survival
ratio method for the adjusted age data of 1952-54
census arrived at a CDR of 44 per thousand population
whereas Vaidyanathan and Gaige applied a quasi-stable
population model and arrived at an estimate of 36.7
for 1954.
The estimated CDR for 1971-81 was 13.5 and
a rrore recent estimate of 10.9 for 1984 has been
obtained by New Era (1986).
New Era, however, obtained
this estimate by using the direct information on