WORLDWIDE MARKET RESEARCH REPORT - CISE

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EC/IST FP6 Project No 026920 Work Package: 6 Type of document: Report Date: 20.12.2007 File name: OP_WP6_D37_V1.0.doc Version: 1.0 Title: Worldwide Market Research Report 196 / 356 December 2006. Fibre subscribers alone in Japan outnumber total broadband subscribers in 23 of the 30 OECD countries. The presence of the fiber optics in Africa is very scarce, but it is in increase. Wireless services like iBurst and satellite connections continue to struggle to win a significant market share in the OECD. Currently 98% of all broadband connections in the OECD, defined as services with download speeds equal to or faster than 256 kbit/s, are fixed line offerings. DSL is the most popular connection with 62% market share, followed by Cable modems with 29% and Fibre connections with 7%. All other broadband connections, including satellite, fixed wireless and power line communication, account for less than 2% of the broadband connections in the OECD. In South Africa around half of all broadband connections are wireless which is mainly due to the high cost and poor service offerings in the fixed line space. [A32] Anyway, in Africa, according to Balancing Act’s Voice and Data Forecasts the thirst for broadband is driving bandwidth growth. The rapid take-up of broadband in general and wireless broadband in particular has driven increases in internet bandwidth and will be the prime driver of growth over the next five years. Additional growth from dial-up subscriptions over the forecast period to 2011 will be 689 Mbps. But growth from all forms of broadband over the forecast period to 2011 will be 43,529 Mbps, almost a tripling of bandwidth required. Wireless broadband may well be a much larger contributor than ADSL to bandwidth growth in Sub-Saharan Africa. Although ADSL dominates demand in those countries already connected to broadband, the most rapid growth will probably come from wireless broadband. International voice traffic continues to grow at rates above the world average. Its rate of growth 23.4% CAGR for Africa and 13.8% CAGR for the world, is above the world average. Satellite carried 45.3% of Africa’s international voice traffic in 2006. Although there are a number of marine and terrestrial fibre projects that will come into use, the fall in the use of satellite will be relatively small across the forecast period, dropping to 41% in 2011 if no
EC/IST FP6 Project No 026920 Work Package: 6 Type of document: Report Date: 20.12.2007 File name: OP_WP6_D37_V1.0.doc Version: 1.0 Title: Worldwide Market Research Report 197 / 356 further international fibre cables are built. Total Internet bandwidth supplied by satellite has dropped from 24.1% in 1998 to 11.5% in 2006. 26 countries get 100% of their international internet bandwidth entirely by satellite. Both retail and wholesale prices for international voice traffic have dropped dramatically. Nevertheless falls in both prices remain uneven with a large number of countries maintaining incumbent monopolies that allow them to keep prices artificially higher. [A33] Despite considerable falls in international retail calling prices in many countries across the continent and the legalisation of VoIP in key markets, the existence of the grey market remains extensive in all African countries. There are currently eight countries where VoIP is more or less legal. 36 out of 54 countries and territories in Africa forbid the use of VoIP by regulation or by law. Of these 36 countries, 30 have only one international gateway. The remaining six countries have either licensed an international gateway to a Second National Operator (SNO) or have licensed more widely to their mobile operators. [A34] IP-TV is seen by many as an essential service for broadband providers like Telkom to lift their average revenue per user and enhance their general service offerings, but in Africa, this service is very narrow. In countries where IP-TV is launched we generally see high broadband penetration rates and bandwidth rich environments, something that cannot be said for South Africa. For IP-TV to make business sense, high broadband penetration rates are required to achieve economies of scale. This raises the question as to whether Telkom has sufficient subscriber numbers on their 4 Mbps ADSL service, the minimum speed needed to support true IP-TV services. A further concern is the low monthly usage allowances associated with local broadband offerings. These low monthly caps will influence the potential success of a service like IP-TV, unless another solution is found. The dilemma is that standard IP-TV offerings relying on broadband access will definitely not be able to function in an environment where 3 GB monthly caps are commonplace. While there are concerns regarding usage limits and speeds for IP-TV over services like ADSL, gated communities have the advantage of rolling out fast and uncapped local networks using technologies like Wi-Fi and Broadband over Power Lines.
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