WORLDWIDE MARKET RESEARCH REPORT - CISE

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EC/IST FP6 Project No 026920 Work Package: 6 Type of document: Report Date: 20.12.2007 File name: OP_WP6_D37_V1.0.doc Version: 1.0 Title: Worldwide Market Research Report 240 / 356 night). Furthermore, many tax regimes still treat computers and cellular telephones as luxury items, which makes these imported items all the more expensive. Even in South Africa, less of 10% of households have a PC, and this fraction is not likely to grow beyond 15-20% in the medium term. [A47] The country aims for at least 5 million broadband users, amounting to a 10% penetration, over the next few years. Seen in the context of the current low fixed-line teledensity, this seems an impossible target; seen relative to mobile, it is certainly achievable. In reality, reaching such a target would require much more than investment in telecommunications. For a start, the number of computers (or similar smart terminal devices), and the number of computer-literate people would have to rise to similar levels. Before thinking about the possibility to bring the internet access to million of Africans, it would need before to bring them electricity and computers. The African legislation in this sense doesn't help. The points of strength of the other technologies There are presently several broadband technologies options for rolling out a broadband infrastructure on the African continent: wireless technologies, including satellite, wire-line technologies (such as optical fibre networks, but also power line communications) and a combination of these. [A47] The idea of delivering broadband access using wireless technology has been around a long time. However, it is only now that it is becoming practical and cost-effective to do so. The first broadband wireless networks were high-end, line-of-sight systems that largely replaced point-to-point microwave links. Today’s broadband wireless systems are non-line- of-sight systems with increasingly mobile capability, and declining equipment prices. New wireless technologies will provide true broadband access speeds and Quality of Service. The front-runner today appears to be the Wi-MAX standard, an alignment between IEEE 802.16 and ETSI HiperMan which has the support of virtually all of the major vendors in the industry, and is being tested by numerous operators world-wide. There is certainly good reason to
EC/IST FP6 Project No 026920 Work Package: 6 Type of document: Report Date: 20.12.2007 File name: OP_WP6_D37_V1.0.doc Version: 1.0 Title: Worldwide Market Research Report 241 / 356 believe that wireless will have an important role in delivering broadband here in Africa. Wi- MAX technology is being developed under two different standards: one for mobile deployment and the other for a fixed wireless deployment. Many telecoms players, worldwide as well as in South Africa, are in active trials or small scale deployments of Wi-MAX for "last mile" connectivity. In its fixed-wireless application, Wi-MAX promises to be the closest substitute to wire-line access, with current peak speeds of around 70 Mbits per second under ideal conditions (over short distances). Since a Wi-MAX deployment will eliminate the need to roll out wire-line telecom infrastructure all the way to the customer’s premises, the installation cost, provisioning time as well as operating cost for the technology is expected to be lower, allowing for better price-points for the customer. On the other side, the very poor coverage of the telephone fixed-line (the less developed in the world), in comparison to the mobile one, stimulates million of Africans to prefer the mobile phone to the fixed one. [A47] Mobile operators often like to talk of 3G as broadband, but, as has been stated earlier, 3G does not provide true broadband bandwidths, and cannot match the cost per bandwidth of true broadband. Nevertheless, 3G will have an important role to play in the African market. UMTS and CDMA2000 are the two dominant 3G standards. UMTS is being deployed as a 3G overlay to GSM networks, particularly in Europe, while CDMA2000, including its evolutions such as W-CDMA and EvDO, is a natural 3G migration for CDMA networks, but is also the preferred technology of limited mobility (or “fixed-mobile”) players, since it combines a low cost per subscriber with the option of very high data speeds. Mobile technologies, particularly 3G technologies such as CDMA2000 and UMTS, will provide a practical, ubiquitous alternative to broadband at the lower end of the market. For many people in Africa, their first experience of data services will be through 3G terminals, rather than through PCs. These services will fulfill a similar role as cheap consumer broadband in developed countries. In South Africa, 3G has currently overtaken the various current broadband wireless alternatives, but over time, with the introduction of newer technologies by pioneering operators, this gap is expected to be bridged significantly.
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