100 % FUTURE - ALNO

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IV. MARKET AND COMPETITIVE ENVIRONMENT
Economic environment
In all markets of relevance for the ALNO Group, the 2010 fiscal year was characterized by significant
indications of economic recovery following the global economic crisis. Gross domestic product (GDP)
in Germany grew by 3.6 % year-on-year in 2010 (2009: – 4.7 %). This represents the highest annual
growth rate since German reunification. Exports were up by 14.2 % at the same time. 1 Eurozone
(EU 27) GDP increased by 1.8 %, according to Eurostat. In the markets that are of particular importance
for the ALNO Group outside Germany, Austria reported a further fall in GDP of 2.0 %, following the
previous decrease in 2009, and the UK saw GDP drop by 1.8 %. 2 Switzerland reported growth of 2.6 %.
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) anticipates that German economic output will be up by 2.2 %
in 2011. The IMF expects the Eurozone to grow by 1.5 %, and that the global economy will report
4.4 % GDP growth. 3 It nevertheless remains to be seen how the catastrophe in Japan, and political
changes in North Africa, will impact macroeconomic trends.
As far as consumers’ spending and investment behavior is concerned, trends in labor market data,
building investments, and consumer prices, are of significance in the kitchen sector. Favorable labor
market prospects boosted private consumer spending in 2010, which was up by 2.4 %. This had
particular effects on the furniture market, since this is a so-called “postponable” market: depending
on end-customers’ personal financial situations, the purchase of such consumer durables is either
realized or postponed.
In addition, an historically low level of interest rates in 2010 contributed to the first resumption of
growth in residential construction investments for years. With price-adjusted growth of 4.4 %, the
recovery was also stronger than that in construction investments overall. There was a 1.2 % decline
compared with 2008 in the 2009 crisis year. 4 On the basis of its future construction estimates, the
Munich-based Ifo Institute expects that the number of completed residential properties will undergo
a significant increase by 2015 due to the recovering economy, replacement requirements in some
regions, and favorable construction loans. 5
COMPLETED RESIDENTIAL PROPERTIES IN GERMANY 2000 – 2015
1,000 units | Source: Federal Office of Statistics, ifo construction estimates
240
200
160
1+2 family homes
120
80
Single-storey dwellings
40
2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015
1 Federal Office of Statistics: Press
release No. 061, February 15, 2011
2 Federal Office of Statistics 2010
3 International Monetary Fund, World
Economic Outlook, January 25, 2011
4 Federal Office of Statistics, Press
release No. 22, January 19, 2011
5 HDH/VDM, Wirtschaft Kompakt,
Edition 1, January 2011
A purchasing power study for Germany that was conducted by “GfK Geomarketing” arrives at an
equally positive conclusion for 2011. This study forecast the purchasing power will grow by EUR 499
per head of the population, from EUR 19,185 in 2010, to an average of EUR 19,684 in 2011 This
trend is attributed to the rapid overcoming of the financial crisis, and to higher wage expectations.
In the GfK’s opinion, the inflation trend is one factor that might affect forecast purchasing power.
Higher contributions, for example to health insurance, are also anticipated for many in 2011. As a
consequence, total purchasing power in Germany amounts to EUR 1,610.2 billion for 2011, according
to the GfK’s estimates. This figure stood at EUR 1,550.2 billion in 2010.