The Role of Sustainable Land Management for Climate ... - CAADP

!
Table 2-5. Severe environmental constraints for rain-fed crop production (reference
climate, 1961-1990 and scenario HadCM3-A1F1 in 2080s)
Land with severe constraints for rain-fed cultivation of crops %
African
Region
Total
extent
10 6 ha
Total with
constraints Too cold Too dry Too wet Too steep Poor soils
1961-
1990 2080
1961-
1991 2080
1961-
1992 2080
1961-
1993 2080
1961-
1994 2080
1961
-
1995 2080
Eastern 888 52.1 52.5 0 0 27.0 27.3 0 0 3.1 3.1 22 22
Middle 657 58.9 60.3 0 0 12.9 14.4 0.2 0.8 0.5 0.4 45.3 44.8
Northern 547 91.3 96.8 0 0 88.0 95.4 0 0 2.2 1.2 1 0.2
Southern 266 75.3 88.4 0 0 58.7 78.8 0 0 6.5 5.7 10.1 4
Western 632 73.3 74.8 0 0 50.6 54.3 0 0 0.1 0.1 22.7 20.5
Source: Fischer et al. (2002)
Table 2-6. Percentage of land with severe versus slight or no constraints for reference
climate (1961-1990) and maximum and minimum values occurring in four GCM climate
projections for the 2080s based on SRES A2 emission scenario
Severe constraints % of total land Slight or no constraints % of total land
African
Region Ref Min Max Ref Min Max
Eastern 52.1 50.5 54.5 18.9 16.7 18.9
Middle 58.9 58.8 60.1 12.2 11.3 11.8
Northern 91.3 93.2 94.7 1.8 0.4 0.9
Southern 75.3 74.6 86.2 1.6 0.1 0.6
Western 73.3 72.6 75 11.3 9.7 11.1
Maximum and minimum values across constraints do generally not add up to 100 percent, since values are not
necessarily from the same scenario
Source: Fischer et al. (2002)
!
+'!