The Role of Sustainable Land Management for Climate ... - CAADP

!
2. The Challenge of Climate Variability and Climate Change in Sub-
Saharan Africa
Key messages
• SSA is highly vulnerable to climate variability and change.
o
The impacts of climate variability have increased in SSA in recent decades, and
are expected to continue to do so as a result of climate change.
o The impacts of climate change on future land use, agriculture and food security
are predicted to be negative throughout much of Africa, as a result of rising
temperatures everywhere, and declining and more variable rainfall in many
locations.
• These impacts will exacerbate and be exacerbated by widespread land degradation in
SSA.
2.1 Climate Variability in Sub-Saharan Africa
The frequency and intensity of climate-related natural disasters have increased in SSA since the
1960s. While trends in the frequency of droughts are not readily discernible for all of SSA,
floods are increasingly common (Figure 2-1) (Gautam 2006). Although there are no Africa-wide
trends in the frequency of droughts, their impact – as indicated by the number of people affected
by droughts – shows a strongly increasing trend (Figure 2-2). During 1960-2006, the majority of
droughts in SSA occurred in East and West Africa with an increasing trend in the frequency of
droughts in East Africa and a declining trend in West Africa. East Africa accounted for more
than 70 percent of all people affected by drought during 1964-2006 in SSA, with Ethiopians
being the most affected (39 percent of all affected) (Ibid.).
!
'!