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A N N U A L R E P O R T A N D A C C O U N T S - CMVM

A N N U A L R E P O R T A N D A C C O U N T S - CMVM

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Management Report of the Board of Directors - Financial Year 2008<br />

display their respective business development, of the<br />

performance and position of each of these entities,<br />

containing a description of the main risks and uncertainties<br />

they face.<br />

II. ECONOMIC BACKGROUND<br />

In order to provide a better understanding of the information<br />

supplied, a brief description of the overall economic and<br />

financial background against which the Group carried out its<br />

activities will be provided, mentioning some of the constraints<br />

experienced by the different markets, obviously highlighting<br />

the national situation.<br />

During 2008, there was stagnation in Portugal’s annual GDP<br />

growth, which had increase 1.9% in 2007. This negative trend<br />

reflects, above all, the dramatic drop in investments and<br />

exports over a period in which the full force of the economic<br />

crisis was felt, especially in the fourth quarter, where there<br />

was a -2.0% variation on the previous one. This is the worst<br />

result recorded in Portugal since 1984.<br />

This trend follows the one observed in the Euro Zone, in the<br />

USA and in Japan, with global trade shrinking at the quickest<br />

and most intensive pace since the Great Depression.<br />

In fact, in 2008, the financial markets experienced their<br />

worst crisis since the 30’s, triggered by US real estate<br />

market crash, thus called the “sub-prime crisis”, although<br />

the real causes were much more varied and deeper. This<br />

situation, in addition to the sharp increase in the trade<br />

balance deficit, the high oil prices and the severe crash of<br />

the global stock markets, had a significant impact on<br />

countless economic sectors and consequently, on the<br />

unemployment rates.<br />

In spite of this situation, in Portugal, according to the INE<br />

(National Institute of Statistics), the average unemployment<br />

rate in 2008 settled at 7.6%, 0.4 percentage points less<br />

than that recorded 2007 and below the rate forecasted by<br />

the Government, which estimated an average value of<br />

7.7%. From this value, 47.8% correspond to long-term<br />

unemployment, the lowest percentage in the last four<br />

years.<br />

However, the increase in unemployment has had a very<br />

negative social impact worldwide. After four consecutive<br />

years of decreasing rates, in 2008 there was a reversal of<br />

this trend, with a total of 190 million unemployed worldwide<br />

at the end of that year. According to studies by ILO<br />

(International Labour Organisation), in 2009 there could be<br />

more than 40 million newly unemployed, thus increasing the<br />

global rate to 7.1%, equivalent to 230 million workers. In<br />

parallel, according to World Bank data, the number of people<br />

living below the poverty line (USD 1.25 per day) may<br />

increase substantially, eliminating all the progresses<br />

achieved since 1997.<br />

In response to the crisis, governments and central banks<br />

have attempted to coordinate efforts, implementing<br />

countless economic stimulation packages and emergency<br />

interventions, reducing interest rates and injecting short-term<br />

liquidity. However, these measures, especially aimed at<br />

preserving the financial system and preventing the<br />

bankruptcy of large-scale companies, as well as ensuring the<br />

maintenance of jobs and supporting investments in<br />

infrastructures, shall take time to produce visible effects in the<br />

current economic situation.<br />

Considering the unforeseen dimensions of the crisis and,<br />

also, that the fiscal and monetary policies of the world’s main<br />

economies may only achieve results in the medium term,<br />

there is real concern that the consumption standards will take<br />

time to return to previous levels, already quite precarious in<br />

underdeveloped or developing countries.<br />

There is consensus among analysts and observers that, in<br />

2009, the crisis will worsen before it starts to recover.<br />

However, there are a few positive aspects, such as the fact<br />

that stock markets are already negotiating with less<br />

volatility and that there is already a reduction in the final<br />

price of fuel to the consumer, as a result of the abrupt drop<br />

in oil prices. The decrease in the Euribor rate also had a<br />

positive impact on the reduction of banks’ housing loan<br />

15

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