12-14 September, 2011, Lucknow - Earth Science India

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National Conference on Science of Climate Change and Earth’s Sustainability: Issues and Challenges ‘A Scientist-People Partnership’ 12-14 September, 2011, Lucknow TREND IN MID- LATITUDE WESTERLY TROUGH AT 500 H PA AND IN EXTREME SUMMER MONSOON OVER INDIAN REGION S.S. Dugam Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology, Pune-411008 email: dugam@tropmet.res.in In this paper, quantification of Mid- Latitude Westerly Trough Index called as (MWTI) is derived by using the Principal Component Analysis (PCA) technique on daily basis, over the Indo-Pak region and over North West Indian for the period 1957- 2002. The gradient between (PC1+PC2) time series of daily geo potential field of the first region and second region is calculated during the Indian summer monsoon period (June- September) and these index referred to as Mid- Latitude Westerly Trough Index (MWTI). The trend analysis of MWTI in extreme monsoon years i.e. in drought and flood monsoon years have been studied and it is observed that the intrusion of westerly trough is showing the significant negative trend in drought monsoon year, while in flood monsoon it shows a significant positive trends. The trend analysis of upper troposphere temperature is also studied simultaneously. It is seen that cold temperature anomalies is present over NW Indian region in drought monsoon year while it is reverse in flood monsoon years. The study was further carried out the relationship between daily North Atlantic Oscillation Index (NAOI) and MWTI in same period. The analysis suggested that during the weak phase and active phase of monsoon the relationship between NAOI and MWTI is an reverse and statistically significant. This relationship is concurrent and may be useful for explaining the role of NAO activity and intrusion of mid-latitude troughs over the Indian region, which affects the rainfall variability during the monsoon period. LONG TERM TREND OF HEAVY PRECIPITATION OVER NORTHWEST HIMALAYAS Naresh Kumar and B.P. Yadav India Meteorological Department, Lodi Road, New Delhi-110003 email: naresh-nhac@gmail.com In the Indian subcontinent context, Himalaya governs the climate and weather of the region and drive the major weather system like Western Disturbances (WDs) during 20
National Conference on Science of Climate Change and Earth’s Sustainability: Issues and Challenges ‘A Scientist-People Partnership’ 12-14 September, 2011, Lucknow winter time and monsoon phenomenon during summer time. The WDs influence the life of northwest Himalaya by causing heavy precipitation and subsequent avalanches over the region. Also, the impact of the weather events are enhanced by topography of the region, which makes the area more prone to cloud bursts, flash floods and landslides. Therefore, study of heavy precipitation is very important for this region. In the present study, frequency of rather heavy (>24.4 mm) and heavy (>64.4 mm) precipitation events over northwest Himalaya has been studied using the available long term meteorological surface data (1901-2010) from India Meteorological Department (IMD). Three stations namely Srinagar, Qazi Gund and Banihal stations over northwest Himalaya have been considered due to their consistent long term daily data. The study shows that the frequencies of rather heavy precipitation events are maximum in the month of March over all the three stations. But in case of frequencies of heavy precipitation events, Qazi Gund and Banihal receive in the month of March and the Srinagar receives in the month of December. The least number of rather heavy and heavy precipitation events occur in month of October over Qazi Gund and Banihal and in month of November over Srinagar. November month was found free from heavy precipitation events over Srinagar and in October over Banihal. Analysis of data shows that there is an increasing trend in rather heavy and heavy annual precipitation events over Srinagar and decreasing trend over Banihal and Qazi Gund. Seasonwise, there is an increasing trend in rather heavy precipitation events over Srinagar in all the seasons except winter. However, trend is statistically significant (95% confidence level) for post-monsoon season only. But in case of Banihal, there is opposite trend in rather heavy precipitation events, which shows a decreasing trend in all the seasons except winter. Over Qazi Gund, trend is increasing for winter and monsoon seasons and decreasing trend for pre-monsoon and post-monsoon seasons. Trend of heavy precipitation events also studied in the paper. Results are presented in detail in the paper. IMPACT ANALYSIS OF CLIMATIC CHANGE ON RAINFALL PATTERN USING CLOUD IMAGES K. Murali, K.R. Jothi and S. Oswalt Manoj Sri Ramakrishna Institute of Technology, Pachapalayam, Perur Chettipalayam, Coimbatore - 641010 email: murali.vlb@gmail.com, krjothi@yahoo.com, oswaltmanoj1986@gmail.com Water is elixir of life. So rainfall becomes the inevitable part of every nation which decides the prosperity and economic scenario of a country. In this fast moving world, estimation of rainfall has become a necessity especially when the global heat 21
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12-14 September, 2011, Lucknow - Earth Science India

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