for various water resources studies with certain degree <strong>of</strong>error and uncertainty.Thenkabail, Prasad S.Water Use and Water Productivity <strong>of</strong> Key WorldCrops using Hyperi<strong>on</strong>-ASTER, and a LargeCollecti<strong>on</strong> <strong>of</strong> in-situ Field Biological and SpectralDataThenkabail, Prasad S. 1 ; Mariotto, Isabella 11. Geography, U.S. Geological Survey, Flagstaff, AZ, USAThe overarching goal <strong>of</strong> this study is to assess water useand water productivity <strong>of</strong> key world crops using Hyperi<strong>on</strong>-ASTER and a large collecti<strong>on</strong> <strong>of</strong> in-situ field biological andspectral data. The study will be based <strong>on</strong> existing datasets,collected during <strong>the</strong> 2006 and 2007 crop growing seas<strong>on</strong>s,over large-scale irrigated areas <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> arid Syr Darya riverbasin (444,000 km2) in Central Asia where recent studiesshow snowmelt water supplies from Himalayas are <strong>on</strong> swiftdeclines. The irrigated cropland data acquired include: (a)Hyperi<strong>on</strong> narrow-band data (5 images) from EarthObserving-1 (EO-1), (b) spectroradiometer data from 400-2500 nanometers, (c) broad-band data from ASTER as wellas ETM+, ALI, IKONOS, and Quickbird, and (d) field-plotbiological data. The field-plot data <strong>of</strong> 5 crops (wheat, cott<strong>on</strong>,maize, rice and alfalfa) were collected, every 15-20 days,throughout <strong>the</strong> summer crop growing seas<strong>on</strong>s (April-October) <strong>of</strong> 2006 and 2007 for a total <strong>of</strong> 1003 samplelocati<strong>on</strong>s and c<strong>on</strong>sisted <strong>of</strong>: several thousand spectralmeasurements, crop variables (e.g. biomass, LAI, yield), soiltype and salinity, water variables (e.g., inflow, outflow), andmeteorological data (e.g., rainfall, ET). The study <strong>of</strong> 5 cropsusing Hyperi<strong>on</strong>-ASTER-field spectral and biological datawill: (a) develop and test water productivity models (WPMs),(b) establish shifts in phenology depicting canopies’integrated resp<strong>on</strong>se to envir<strong>on</strong>mental change and\orc<strong>on</strong>trolled-planted by humans, (c) highlight best performinghyperspectral water indices (HWIs); and (d) establish chiefcauses <strong>of</strong> water productivity variati<strong>on</strong>s and identifyhyperspectral wavebands and indices that are most sensitiveto <strong>the</strong>m. The water productivity (WP; kg\m3) is obtained bydividing crop productivity (CP kg\m2; based <strong>on</strong> <strong>the</strong> bestHyperi<strong>on</strong> models) by water use (WU; m3\m2; based <strong>on</strong> <strong>the</strong>best ASTER models). Water use <strong>of</strong> irrigated crops will bedetermined by <strong>the</strong> Simplified Surface Energy Balance Model(SSEBM), which is derived by multiplying evaporativefracti<strong>on</strong> obtained using ASTER <strong>the</strong>rmal imagery withreference ET derived from <strong>the</strong> Penman-M<strong>on</strong>teith equati<strong>on</strong>.Crop productivity is determined through <strong>the</strong> besthyperspectral models. Hyperspectral wavebands and indicesin studying water productivity, water use, and phenology willbe established and will involve: (a) two-band vegetati<strong>on</strong> index(TBVIs) models, (b) Optimum multiple-band vegetati<strong>on</strong>index (OMBVI) models, (c) derivative index models, (d)broad-band models (NIR-red based, mid-infrared, soiladjusted,and atmospherically corrected), (e) principalcomp<strong>on</strong>ent analysis, (f) discriminant or separability analysis(e.g., stepwise discriminant analysis), and (g) crop waterstress indices using red-edge, NIR and SWIR water bands, aswell as <strong>the</strong>rmal bands. The outcome <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> research will leadto: 1. Determining proporti<strong>on</strong> <strong>of</strong> irrigated areas in low,medium, or high water productivity (WP; kg\m3) and <strong>the</strong>irdrivers (management practice, soil type, salinity status, etc.);3. Pin-pointing areas <strong>of</strong> low and high WP, 3. Establishingwater use (m3\m2) <strong>of</strong> 5 irrigated crops, and 4.Recommending optimal Hyperi<strong>on</strong> waveband centers andwidths, in 400 to 2500 nanometer range, required to beststudy irrigated cropland characteristics;Thenkabail, Prasad S.Global croplands and <strong>the</strong>ir water use assessmentsthrough advanced remote sensing and n<strong>on</strong>-remotesensing approachesThenkabail, Prasad S. 11. Geography, U.S. Geological Survey, Flagstaff, AZ, USAThe global cropland area estimates am<strong>on</strong>gst differentstudies are quite close and range between 1.47 to 1.53 billi<strong>on</strong>hectares. The total water use by global croplands, estimatedbased <strong>on</strong> existing cropland maps, varies between 6,685 to7500 km3 yr-1; <strong>of</strong> this 4,586 km3 yr-1 is by rainfed croplands(green water use) and <strong>the</strong> rest by irrigated croplands (bluewater use). Irrigated areas use about 2,099 km3 yr-1 (1,180km3 yr-1 <strong>of</strong> blue water and <strong>the</strong> rest by rain that falls directlyover irrigated croplands). However, 1.6 to 2.5 times <strong>the</strong> bluewater required by irrigated croplands (1,180 km3 yr-1) isactually withdrawn (from reservoirs or pumping <strong>of</strong> groundwater) making irrigati<strong>on</strong> efficiency <strong>of</strong> <strong>on</strong>ly between 40-62percent. However, <strong>the</strong>re are major uncertainties indetermining: a) precise locati<strong>on</strong> <strong>of</strong> croplands; (b) whe<strong>the</strong>rcrops were irrigated or rainfed; (c) exact crop types and <strong>the</strong>irphenologies; and (d) cropping intensities. This in turn leadsto uncertainties in green water use (from rainfed croplands)and blue water use (from irrigated croplands) computati<strong>on</strong>s.Given that about 80% <strong>of</strong> all human water use goes towardsagriculture, precise estimates <strong>of</strong> global croplands and <strong>the</strong>irwater use is <strong>of</strong> major importance. The causes <strong>of</strong> differenceswere as a result <strong>of</strong> definiti<strong>on</strong>s in mapping, data types used,methodologies used, resoluti<strong>on</strong> <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> imagery, uncertaintiesin sub-pixel area computati<strong>on</strong>s, inadequate accounting <strong>of</strong>statistics <strong>on</strong> minor irrigati<strong>on</strong> (groundwater, small reservoirsand tanks), and data sharing issues. To overcome <strong>the</strong> abovelimitati<strong>on</strong>s this research proposes an implementati<strong>on</strong>strategy to produce products using advanced remote sensing142
tools and methods to address <strong>on</strong>e <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> biggest challengeshumanity will face in coming decades: how to adequatelyfeed a projected populati<strong>on</strong> <strong>of</strong> about 10 billi<strong>on</strong> people by2050 in a changing climate and increasingly water-scarceworld without having to increase present allocati<strong>on</strong>s <strong>of</strong>croplands and\or water. In order to achieve this goal, wepropose and discuss a strategy to map global irrigated andrainfed cropland areas by fusing Landsat GLS2005 data withMODIS time-series (2004-2006), sec<strong>on</strong>dary data (e.g., l<strong>on</strong>gterm precipitati<strong>on</strong>-temperature-evapotranspirati<strong>on</strong>, GDEM),and a large collecti<strong>on</strong> <strong>of</strong> in-situ data. Finally, <strong>the</strong> paper willdiscuss <strong>the</strong> increased certainties in global blue water andgreen water computati<strong>on</strong>s.http://powellcenter.usgs.gov/current_projects.php#GlobalCroplandsHighlightsThenkabail, Prasad S.Selecting Areas <strong>of</strong> Wetland Cultivati<strong>on</strong> andPreservati<strong>on</strong> in Africa: Satellite Sensor Data Fusi<strong>on</strong>Syn<strong>the</strong>sized with Socio-ec<strong>on</strong>omic data in a SpatialModeling Framework to Support Africa’s Greenand Blue Revoluti<strong>on</strong>Thenkabail, Prasad S. 11. Geography, U.S. Geological Survey, Flagstaff, AZ, USATo prioritize <strong>the</strong> use and c<strong>on</strong>servati<strong>on</strong> <strong>of</strong> wetlands, thisresearch will produce multi-resoluti<strong>on</strong> inland valley (IV)wetland data and map products for all <strong>the</strong> 24 West andCentral African (WCA) Nati<strong>on</strong>s, by fusing multiple datasets.Data sources will be: (a) Global Land Survey 2005(GLS2005) 30m, (b) ENVISAT ASAR after 2002 (widescan100-150m), ALOS PALSAR wide-beam (after 2006), and JERSSAR 100m, (c) MODIS 250-500m Terra\Aqua m<strong>on</strong>thly timeseriesfor 2001-<str<strong>on</strong>g>2012</str<strong>on</strong>g>; (d) Space Shuttle Topographic Missi<strong>on</strong>(SRTM) 90m, and (f) extensive socio-ec<strong>on</strong>omic and in-situdata <strong>on</strong> health hazards in wetland development, access fromwetlands to roads and markets, available credit, richness <strong>of</strong><strong>the</strong>ir soils, and crops grown in wetlands and <strong>the</strong>ir water use.The outcome will enable and support decisi<strong>on</strong>-making thatwill pin-point IV wetland areas that are (1) best suited forcultivati<strong>on</strong>, and (2) prioritized for c<strong>on</strong>servati<strong>on</strong>. Thewetlands <strong>of</strong> West and Central Africa (WCA) are increasinglyc<strong>on</strong>sidered “hotspots” for agricultural development and forexpediting Africa’s Green and Blue Revoluti<strong>on</strong>*. Currently,<strong>the</strong>se IV wetlands are un-utilized or highly under-utilized inWCA in spite <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong>ir rich soils and abundant wateravailability as a result <strong>of</strong>: (a) limited road and market access,and (b) prevailing diseases such as Malaria, Trypanosomiasis(sleeping sickness) and Onchocerciasis (river blindness).However, <strong>the</strong> utilizati<strong>on</strong> <strong>of</strong> IV wetlands for agriculture isbecoming unavoidable in WCA countries due to increasingpressure for food from a ballo<strong>on</strong>ing human populati<strong>on</strong> anddifficulty finding arable uplands. It is also critical torecognize important functi<strong>on</strong>s <strong>of</strong> wetlands, which includeholding about 20% <strong>of</strong> all carb<strong>on</strong> <strong>on</strong> earth and providinghabitat for unique and rare flora and fauna. Therefore, anyproposed use <strong>of</strong> wetlands for agriculture has to be carefullyweighed against <strong>the</strong> socio-ec<strong>on</strong>omic benefits provided by <strong>the</strong>inherent ecological services <strong>of</strong> c<strong>on</strong>served and intactwetlands. In order to address <strong>the</strong> issue <strong>of</strong> development vs.c<strong>on</strong>servati<strong>on</strong> <strong>of</strong> wetlands, this work will produce and provideaccess to critical maps and models for informed decisi<strong>on</strong>makingby local and regi<strong>on</strong>al stakeholders. Data andproducts developed here will be actively promoted andwidely disseminated to stakeholders through WCA networks(e.g.,CARD\AGRA, CGIAR CSI), keeping in mind asustainable-envir<strong>on</strong>mentally-ecologically-climaticallyfriendly development agenda.Trenberth, Kevin E.Challenges for Observing and Modeling <strong>the</strong> GlobalWater Cycle INVITEDTrenberth, Kevin E. 11. Climate Analysis Secti<strong>on</strong>, NCAR, Boulder, CO, USAObservati<strong>on</strong>s <strong>of</strong> climate system comp<strong>on</strong>ents andforcings are increasingly needed for planning and decisi<strong>on</strong>making related to climate services. Although significantprogress has been made, much more remains to be d<strong>on</strong>ebefore a fully functi<strong>on</strong>al climate observing system exists.Observati<strong>on</strong>s are needed <strong>on</strong> all spatial scales from local toglobal, and all time scales, especially to understand anddocument changes in extremes. A major challenge is toadequately deal with <strong>the</strong> c<strong>on</strong>tinually changing observingsystem, especially from satellites. Even with newcomputati<strong>on</strong>al tools, fur<strong>the</strong>r challenges remain to provideadequate analysis, processing, meta-data, archival, access,and management <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> resulting data and <strong>the</strong> dataproducts. The main syn<strong>the</strong>sis <strong>of</strong> all observati<strong>on</strong>s, includingthose from remote sensing from space, is in <strong>the</strong> globalreanalyses. An assessment <strong>of</strong> hydrological cycles from eightcurrent atmospheric reanalyses and <strong>the</strong>ir depicti<strong>on</strong> <strong>of</strong>changes over time reveals substantial shortcomings andsensitivity to <strong>the</strong> observing system and its changes over time.Using model-based precipitati<strong>on</strong> P and evaporati<strong>on</strong> E, <strong>the</strong>time and area average E-P for <strong>the</strong> oceans, P-E for land, and<strong>the</strong> vertically integrated atmospheric moisture transportfrom ocean to land should all be identical but are not closein most reanalyses, and <strong>of</strong>ten differ significantly fromobservati<strong>on</strong>al estimates <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> surface return flow based <strong>on</strong>net river discharge into <strong>the</strong> oceans. Most reanalysis models,<strong>the</strong> excepti<strong>on</strong> being MERRA, have too intense water cycling(P and E) over <strong>the</strong> ocean. There is a tendency for moisture tobe quickly rained out in models, with <strong>the</strong> lifetime too shortand <strong>the</strong> recycling too large in models. The large-scalemoisture budget divergences are more stable in time andsimilar across reanalyses than model-based estimates <strong>of</strong> E-P.Major improvements are needed in model treatment andassimilati<strong>on</strong> <strong>of</strong> moisture, and E and P from reanalysesshould <strong>on</strong>ly be used with great cauti<strong>on</strong>. Moreover, use <strong>of</strong>global reanalyses for downscaling clearly also has limitati<strong>on</strong>sthat should be appreciated.http://www.cgd.ucar.edu/cas/trenbert.html143
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Montana and Oregon. Other applicati
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climate and land surface unaccounte
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mission and will address the follow
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producing CGF snow cover products.
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performance of the AWRA-L model for
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Euphorbia heterandena, and Echinops
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