snow transiti<strong>on</strong> <strong>of</strong> individual storms has a str<strong>on</strong>g influence<strong>on</strong> <strong>the</strong> difference between snowdepth in <strong>the</strong> open and underforest canopy.Kosuth, PascalA method for river discharge estimate from satelliteobservati<strong>on</strong> al<strong>on</strong>e, without any in situmeasurementKosuth, Pascal 1 ; Négrel, Jean 1 ; Strauss, Olivier 2 ; Baume, Jean-Pierre 3 ; Faure, Jean-Baptiste 4 ; Litrico, Xavier 3, 5 ; Malaterre,Pierre-Olivier 31. TETIS, IRSTEA, M<strong>on</strong>tpellier, France2. LIRMM, Université M<strong>on</strong>tpellier 2, M<strong>on</strong>tpellier, France3. GEAU, IRSTEA, M<strong>on</strong>tpellier, France4. Hydrologie-Hydraulique, IRSTEA, Ly<strong>on</strong>, France5. LyRE, R&D Center, Ly<strong>on</strong>naise des Eaux, Bordeaux,FranceIs it possible to estimate river discharge from satellitemeasurement <strong>of</strong> river surface variables (width L, water levelZ, surface slope Is, surface velocity Vs) without any in situmeasurement ? Current or planned satellite observati<strong>on</strong>techniques in <strong>the</strong> hydrology-hydraulic domain are limited to<strong>the</strong> measurement <strong>of</strong> surface variables such as river width L(optical and SAR imagery), water level Z (radar and Lidaraltimetry), river surface l<strong>on</strong>gitudinal slope Is (cross-trackinterferometry) and surface velocity Vs (al<strong>on</strong>g-trackinterferometry). On <strong>the</strong> opposite, river bottom parameterssuch as river bottom height (Zb), river bottom l<strong>on</strong>gitudinalslope (Ib), Manning coefficient (n), vertical velocity pr<strong>of</strong>ilecoefficient ( <strong>the</strong> ratio between mean water velocity andsurface velocity), that are key data for discharge estimate andmodeling, cannot be measured by satellite. They require insitu measurement (Zb, Ib, ) and model calibrati<strong>on</strong> (n). Wepresent here a method to derive river bottom parametersfrom satellite measured river surface variables in <strong>the</strong> absence<strong>of</strong> any in situ measurement. This will <strong>the</strong>n allow us toestimate river discharge for any set <strong>of</strong> surface variables. Themethod relies <strong>on</strong> a set <strong>of</strong> hydraulic hypo<strong>the</strong>sis (for instancerectangular secti<strong>on</strong>, c<strong>on</strong>stant Manning coefficient n andc<strong>on</strong>stant velocity pr<strong>of</strong>ile coefficient ). It c<strong>on</strong>sists <strong>of</strong> solvingan equality c<strong>on</strong>straint between two formulati<strong>on</strong>s linking <strong>the</strong>river discharge Q to <strong>the</strong> surface variables and <strong>the</strong> unknownparameters (Q1 and Q2 obtained from <strong>the</strong> massc<strong>on</strong>servati<strong>on</strong> equati<strong>on</strong> and <strong>the</strong> energy c<strong>on</strong>servati<strong>on</strong>equati<strong>on</strong>): Q1=L..Vs.h Q2=L.h 5/3 .Is 1/2 .[n 2 +g -1 .h 1/3 .(Is-Ib)]where h=Z-Zb Given a river secti<strong>on</strong>, estimating <strong>the</strong> riverbottom parameters (, Zb, Ib, K) is achieved by using a set <strong>of</strong>surface variables (L, Z, Is, Vs) i=1 to N, measured <strong>on</strong> this secti<strong>on</strong>at various times ti throughout <strong>the</strong> hydrological cycle, and bydetermining <strong>the</strong> set <strong>of</strong> river bottom parameters thatminimizes a deviati<strong>on</strong> criteria between (Q1)i and (Q2)i. Thisminimizati<strong>on</strong> is achieved by iterative or direct methods,depending <strong>on</strong> <strong>the</strong> type <strong>of</strong> criteria and <strong>on</strong> additi<strong>on</strong>alhypo<strong>the</strong>sis (ex. a uniform regime hypo<strong>the</strong>sis leads to ananalytical soluti<strong>on</strong>). Several simulati<strong>on</strong>s have shown <strong>the</strong>efficiency <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong>ses methods <strong>on</strong> exact simulated data set (i.e.for which (Q1)i=(Q2)i). We have assessed <strong>the</strong> robustness <strong>of</strong><strong>the</strong>se methods to measurement noise <strong>on</strong> river surfacevariables. We proposed several modificati<strong>on</strong>s to increase thisrobustness and <strong>the</strong> ability to provide acceptable riverdischarge estimates (error
in <strong>the</strong> flow over <strong>the</strong> floodplain arising from <strong>the</strong> scouring at<strong>the</strong> O’Bryan Ridge in <strong>the</strong> Floodway. The presentati<strong>on</strong> willshow <strong>the</strong> initial results from <strong>the</strong> study <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong>se data andhighlight <strong>the</strong> value <strong>of</strong> using high resoluti<strong>on</strong> remote-sensingdata for <strong>the</strong> study <strong>of</strong> flood impacts.kumar A, JayaRole <strong>of</strong> El Niño in Modulating <strong>the</strong> Period <strong>of</strong>Precipitati<strong>on</strong> Variability <strong>of</strong> Asian Summer M<strong>on</strong>so<strong>on</strong>Using Satellite Observati<strong>on</strong>skumar A, Jaya 11. EOAS-Meteorology, Florida State University, Tallahassee,FL, USAActive-Break (AB) Cycle <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> Asian Summer M<strong>on</strong>so<strong>on</strong>(ASM) is <strong>on</strong>e <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> crucial factors in deciding <strong>the</strong> amount <strong>of</strong>precipitati<strong>on</strong> received during ASM. During <strong>the</strong> AB Cycle, <strong>the</strong>atmosphere and <strong>the</strong> underlying ocean closely interact in <strong>the</strong>time scale <strong>of</strong> about 40 days. Net heat flux at <strong>the</strong> oceansurface which is c<strong>on</strong>trolled by c<strong>on</strong>vective clouds (radiativeheating) and low-level winds (evaporative cooling) play animportant role in this interacti<strong>on</strong>. This study addresseslength <strong>of</strong> m<strong>on</strong>so<strong>on</strong> rainfall variability between dry and wetperiods (AB cycle) especially in El Niño developing phaseusing remotely sensed wind data from QuikSCATscatterometer, Microwave SST image from Tropical RainfallMeasurement Microwave Image (TMI) and available Argodata <strong>of</strong> MLD. These data set aids in defining <strong>the</strong> moisturesupply to <strong>the</strong> m<strong>on</strong>so<strong>on</strong> envir<strong>on</strong>ment especially from <strong>the</strong>oceanic areas. North Bay <strong>of</strong> Bengal and <strong>the</strong> Oceans to its eastand west have large amplitude Sea Surface Temperature(SST)variati<strong>on</strong> in <strong>the</strong> AB cycle in resp<strong>on</strong>se to <strong>the</strong> net heat fluxvariati<strong>on</strong>s as <strong>the</strong> Mixed layer Depth (MLD) <strong>the</strong>re is shallow(typically 20 meters) during <strong>the</strong> m<strong>on</strong>ths June to September,forced by <strong>the</strong> cycl<strong>on</strong>ic wind stress curl north <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> seas<strong>on</strong>alm<strong>on</strong>so<strong>on</strong> westerlies. In an El Niño situati<strong>on</strong>, <strong>the</strong> low levelm<strong>on</strong>so<strong>on</strong> winds extend eastward bey<strong>on</strong>d <strong>the</strong> date linecreating an area <strong>of</strong> shallow MLD between l<strong>on</strong>gitudes 120°Eand 160°W. This area <strong>the</strong>n warms rapidly and causes <strong>the</strong>cycle <strong>of</strong> c<strong>on</strong>vecti<strong>on</strong> to shift <strong>the</strong>re from North Indian Oceanbefore moving to <strong>the</strong> Equatorial Indian Ocean. This causes aleng<strong>the</strong>ning <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> AB cycle from <strong>on</strong>e m<strong>on</strong>th in a La Niña to2 m<strong>on</strong>ths in an El Niño. Hence, propose that <strong>the</strong> l<strong>on</strong>g ABcycle in El Niño years (typically <strong>of</strong> 50-60 day period) is <strong>the</strong>main cause <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> El Niño produced droughts in <strong>the</strong> Indianm<strong>on</strong>so<strong>on</strong>. Key words: El Niño, Mixed layer Depth, Active-Break CycleKuo, Kwo-SenPrecipitati<strong>on</strong> Characteristics <strong>of</strong> Tornado-ProducingMesoscale C<strong>on</strong>vective Systems in <strong>the</strong> C<strong>on</strong>tinentalUnited StatesKuo, Kwo-Sen 1 ; H<strong>on</strong>g, Yang 2 ; Clune, Thomas L. 31. GEST/Caelum, NASA Goddard SFC, Greenbelt, MD,USA2. School <strong>of</strong> Meteorology, University <strong>of</strong> Oklahoma,Norman, OK, USA3. S<strong>of</strong>tware Systems Support Office, NASA Goddard SpaceFlight, Greenbelt, MD, USAIn this study we report precipitati<strong>on</strong> statistics, relevantto <strong>the</strong> terrestrial water cycle, obtained for tornado-producingmesoscale c<strong>on</strong>vective systems (MCSs) in <strong>the</strong> c<strong>on</strong>tinentalUnited States (CONUS) . In a technology-dem<strong>on</strong>strati<strong>on</strong>effort, we have synergistically combined several datasets andbuilt an innovative system to automatically track tornadoproducingMCSs in CONUS and, at <strong>the</strong> same time, collectand record physical and morphological parameters for eachMCS. We perform <strong>the</strong> tracking in two datasets with highspatial (two horiz<strong>on</strong>tal dimensi<strong>on</strong>s) and temporalresoluti<strong>on</strong>s: <strong>the</strong> 1-km 5-minute Q2 surface precipitati<strong>on</strong>dataset and <strong>the</strong> 4-km 30-minute GOES 10.8-µm brightnesstemperature dataset. First, we use a threshold to delineatepotential MCS regi<strong>on</strong>s in a temporal snapshot in each <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong>two datasets. We <strong>the</strong>n apply segmentati<strong>on</strong> and subsequentlyneighbor-enclosed area tracking (NEAT) method, bothforward and backward in time, to identify distinct tornadoproducingMCSs from <strong>the</strong>ir incepti<strong>on</strong> to eventualdissipati<strong>on</strong>. Next, we use historical Nati<strong>on</strong>al Wea<strong>the</strong>r Service(NWS) tornado watches to locate <strong>the</strong> general area (countyand/or state) <strong>of</strong> a tornado and its associated MCS. Thisinformati<strong>on</strong> is fur<strong>the</strong>r complemented with <strong>the</strong> coarseresoluti<strong>on</strong> track data in <strong>the</strong> database <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> Tornado HistoryProject (http://www.tornadohistoryproject.com/). Followingour automated tracking, an episode <strong>of</strong> a tornado-producingMCS becomes a three-dimensi<strong>on</strong>al entity, two in space and<strong>on</strong>e in time. We can thus automatically obtain, from <strong>the</strong> Q2surface precipitati<strong>on</strong> dataset, various precipitati<strong>on</strong> andmorphological characteristics for each episode, such as <strong>the</strong>number <strong>of</strong> tornados produced by a system, <strong>the</strong> evoluti<strong>on</strong> <strong>of</strong>its area coverage, its maximum rain rate, <strong>the</strong> time-integratedprecipitati<strong>on</strong> volume <strong>of</strong> a system’s lifetime, etc. Finally,statistics are ga<strong>the</strong>red for all <strong>the</strong> tornado-producing MCSsfor <strong>the</strong> years 2008(partial)-2011. These are correlated andcompared to those, i.e. per-system characteristics as well asannual and all-system statistics, obtained form GOES 10.8-µm brightness temperature datasets.85
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esilience to hydrological hazards a
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Alfieri, Joseph G.The Factors Influ
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used. PIHM has ability to simulate