100+ lake temperature records are obtained from satellitebasedmethods. We focus primarily <strong>on</strong> mean summer watertemperatures for <strong>the</strong> 25-year period 1985-2009, as thisprovides a comm<strong>on</strong> time period with <strong>the</strong> largest amount <strong>of</strong>available data. Linear regressi<strong>on</strong> analysis reveals that 65% <strong>of</strong><strong>the</strong> lakes in <strong>the</strong> database are experiencing significantsummertime warming (p < 0.1), with ano<strong>the</strong>r 30% warmingat a rate that is not statistically significant. Only 5% <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong>lakes in <strong>the</strong> database show cooling trends (n<strong>on</strong>e <strong>of</strong> which aresignificant). The in situ and satellite-based measurementsshow a very similar distributi<strong>on</strong> <strong>of</strong> water temperature trendsam<strong>on</strong>g lakes, with a mean value <strong>of</strong> approximately +0.5°C/decade and standard deviati<strong>on</strong> <strong>of</strong> +/-0.3 °C/decade(maximum = +1.0 °C/decade). We also examine a variety <strong>of</strong>external c<strong>on</strong>trolling factors (climate, geography, lakemorphometry, etc.) to understand <strong>the</strong> physical mechanismsassociated with <strong>the</strong> global and regi<strong>on</strong>al patterns <strong>of</strong> lakewarming.Lenters, John D.Towards a Circum-Arctic Lakes Observati<strong>on</strong>Network (CALON)J<strong>on</strong>es, Benjamin M. 1 ; Hinkel, Kenneth M. 2 ; Lenters, John D. 3 ;Grosse, Guido 4 ; Arp, Christopher D. 5 ; Beck, Richard A. 2 ;Eisner, Wendy R. 2 ; Frey, Karen E. 6 ; Liu, H<strong>on</strong>gxing 2 ; Kim,Changjoo 2 ; Townsend-Small, Amy 21. Alaska Science Center, U.S. Geological Survey, Anchorage,AK, USA2. Department <strong>of</strong> Geography, University <strong>of</strong> Cincinnati,Cincinnati, OH, USA3. School <strong>of</strong> Natural Resources, University <strong>of</strong> Nebraska,Lincoln, NE, USA4. Geophysical Institute, University <strong>of</strong> Alaska Fairbanks,Fairbanks, AK, USA5. Institute <strong>of</strong> Nor<strong>the</strong>rn Engineering, University <strong>of</strong> AlaskaFairbanks, Fairbanks, AK, USA6. Geography, Clark University, Worcester, MA, USARoughly <strong>on</strong>e-quarter <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> lakes <strong>on</strong> Earth are located in<strong>the</strong> Arctic. To date, however, <strong>the</strong>re has been no systematiccollecti<strong>on</strong> <strong>of</strong> key lake parameters or baseline data in <strong>the</strong>Arctic to assess changes in lake water quality and quantity(e.g. due to <strong>the</strong> impacts <strong>of</strong> warmer temperatures, changes incloud cover and precipitati<strong>on</strong> patterns, permafrostdegradati<strong>on</strong>, and human water use). With funding from <strong>the</strong>Nati<strong>on</strong>al Science Foundati<strong>on</strong>’s Arctic Observing Network(AON) program we are working towards <strong>the</strong> establishment<strong>of</strong> a Circum-Arctic Lakes Observati<strong>on</strong> Network (CALON) byfocusing our initial efforts <strong>on</strong> a set <strong>of</strong> lakes located innor<strong>the</strong>rn Alaska. Our team members have been working <strong>on</strong>lakes in Arctic Alaska for <strong>the</strong> past decade and are currentlym<strong>on</strong>itoring lake characteristics at a number <strong>of</strong> locati<strong>on</strong>s.The primary objectives <strong>of</strong> CALON are to expand andintegrate our existing lake m<strong>on</strong>itoring network across ArcticAlaska as well as to fur<strong>the</strong>r develop lake m<strong>on</strong>itoringstrategies for Arctic c<strong>on</strong>diti<strong>on</strong>s to provide data for keyindices using in situ measurements, field surveys, andremote sensing/GIS technologies. CALON will m<strong>on</strong>itor keyindices such as lake temperature, water level, net radiati<strong>on</strong>,ice cover, and numerous water quality and biophysicalparameters. In <str<strong>on</strong>g>2012</str<strong>on</strong>g>, we will enhance <strong>the</strong> existing in situnetwork by instrumenting lake m<strong>on</strong>itoring sites to collectyear-round baseline data and assess physical, chemical, andbiological lake characteristics across envir<strong>on</strong>mentalgradients. This will be accomplished by implementing amulti-scale (hierarchical) lake instrumentati<strong>on</strong> scheme with16 intensive and 35 basic m<strong>on</strong>itored lakes. Regi<strong>on</strong>al scalingand extrapolati<strong>on</strong> <strong>of</strong> key metrics will be accomplishedthrough calibrati<strong>on</strong> and validati<strong>on</strong> <strong>of</strong> satellite imagery withground measurements. Thus, multi-sensor remote sensingwill be a key comp<strong>on</strong>ent in <strong>the</strong> development <strong>of</strong> CALON.Initially, we will focus <strong>on</strong> bathymetric mapping using highresoluti<strong>on</strong>multispectral satellite imagery, detecti<strong>on</strong> <strong>of</strong> waterquality parameters using spaceborne platforms, historic lakestage and ice surface elevati<strong>on</strong> measurements using ICESatand comparable future laser altimetry missi<strong>on</strong>s, <strong>the</strong>detecti<strong>on</strong> <strong>of</strong> surface water temperatures from spaceborne<strong>the</strong>rmal imagers, as well as changes in lake ice timing andthickness using SAR image time series. Through <strong>the</strong>combinati<strong>on</strong> <strong>of</strong> in situ field sensors and c<strong>on</strong>tinuous datalogging, field surveys, and spaceborne remote sensing weplan to standardize protocols that will enable inter-sitecomparis<strong>on</strong> and to prepare for expansi<strong>on</strong> towards a pan-Arctic network. All data acquired within CALON will bemade publicly available in a timely manner in accordancewith NSF AON goals <strong>of</strong> rapid data sharing. Fur<strong>the</strong>r,measurements collected by <strong>the</strong> CALON project can be usedas validati<strong>on</strong> sites for future airborne and spacebornemissi<strong>on</strong>s in <strong>the</strong> Arctic.https://sites.google.com/a/giesn.com/nsf-cal<strong>on</strong>/Lettenmaier, Dennis P.Planning for <strong>the</strong> Next Generati<strong>on</strong> <strong>of</strong> Water CycleMissi<strong>on</strong>s INVITEDLettenmaier, Dennis P. 11. Dept Civil Eng, Univ Washingt<strong>on</strong>, Seattle, WA, USA<strong>Remote</strong> sensing has become an increasingly comm<strong>on</strong>, ifnot routine, source <strong>of</strong> observati<strong>on</strong>s for <strong>the</strong> hydrology andwater cycle community. In many parts <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> globe where insitu observati<strong>on</strong>s are sparse, remote sensing is a criticalsource <strong>of</strong> informati<strong>on</strong> about precipitati<strong>on</strong>, land cover,surface and subsurface storage, and snow, without whichmodern hydrologic predicti<strong>on</strong>s would be difficult orimpossible. In 2007, <strong>the</strong> U.S. Nati<strong>on</strong>al Research Councilissued <strong>the</strong> Decadal Review <strong>of</strong> Earth Science and Applicati<strong>on</strong>sfrom Space (ESAS) – <strong>the</strong> first attempt to prioritize <strong>the</strong> nextgenerati<strong>on</strong> <strong>of</strong> earth science missi<strong>on</strong>s. Missi<strong>on</strong>s were groupedinto three tiers – nominally <strong>on</strong> <strong>the</strong> basis <strong>of</strong> readiness,although <strong>the</strong> tiers de facto became priority levels. Of threemissi<strong>on</strong>s c<strong>on</strong>sidered by <strong>the</strong> Decadal Review that wereprimarily related to hydrologic science and applicati<strong>on</strong>s, <strong>on</strong>ewas assigned to each <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> three tiers – SMAP (SoilMoisture Active Passive) to tier 1, SWOT (Surface Water andOcean Topography) to tier 2, and SCLP (Snow and ColdLand Processes) to tier 3. GRACE-2, also <strong>of</strong> great interest to90
hydrologists, was initially assigned to tier 3, but since hasbeen assigned higher priority. In additi<strong>on</strong>, <strong>the</strong> GlobalPrecipitati<strong>on</strong> Measurement missi<strong>on</strong> (GPM), which was <strong>on</strong><strong>the</strong> verge <strong>of</strong> cancellati<strong>on</strong> at <strong>the</strong> time <strong>the</strong> Decadal Review wasinitiated, is now <strong>on</strong> track for launch in 2014. However, all hasnot g<strong>on</strong>e smoothly in <strong>the</strong> five years since ESAS. Two socalled“foundati<strong>on</strong>al missi<strong>on</strong>s” (missi<strong>on</strong>s already indevelopment at <strong>the</strong> time <strong>of</strong> ESAS) were lost due to launchfailures – OCO (<strong>the</strong> Orbital Carb<strong>on</strong> Observatory) in early2009 and Glory (solar irradiance and aerosol observati<strong>on</strong>s)in 2011. Costs <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> four tier 1 missi<strong>on</strong>s have escalatedrapidly, to <strong>the</strong> point that two <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> four (DESDYNI –interferometric SAR and lidar for surface deformati<strong>on</strong> andrelative surface process research) and CLAREO (solarirradiance) have been placed <strong>on</strong> indefinite hold. In additi<strong>on</strong>,budget cuts make it almost certain that launch dates for <strong>the</strong>remaining tier 1 and tier 2 missi<strong>on</strong>s which nominally are “<strong>on</strong>track” will be extended, and <strong>the</strong> likelihood <strong>of</strong> launch <strong>of</strong> anytier 3 missi<strong>on</strong>s within <strong>the</strong> decade is essentially nil. Againstthis backdrop, I evaluate <strong>the</strong> outlook for <strong>the</strong> next generati<strong>on</strong><strong>of</strong> hydrology and water cycle missi<strong>on</strong>s, including <strong>the</strong> needand opportunity for internati<strong>on</strong>al collaborati<strong>on</strong>, and <strong>the</strong>opportunities for alternative (e.g. suborbital) remote sensingplatforms and <strong>the</strong>ir relevance to hydrologic problems.Lievens, HansAssimilati<strong>on</strong> <strong>of</strong> SMOS data into a coupled landsurface and radiative transfer model for improvingsurface water managementPauwels, Valentijn R. 1 ; Lievens, Hans 1 ; Verhoest, Niko E. 1 ; DeLannoy, Gabrielle 1 ; Plaza Guingla, Douglas 1 ; van den Berg,Martinus J. 1 ; Kerr, Yann 2 ; Al Bitar, Ahmad 2 ; Merlin, Olivier 2 ;Cabot, Francois 2 ; Gascoin, Sim<strong>on</strong> 2 ; Wood, Eric 3 ; Pan, Ming 3 ;Sahoo, Alok 3 ; Walker, Jeffrey 4 ; Dumedah, Gift 4 ; Drusch,Matthias 51. Laboratory <strong>of</strong> Hydrology and Water Management, GhentUniversity, Ghent, Belgium2. Centre d’Etudes Spatiales de la Biospehère, Toulouse,France3. Land Surface Hydrology Group, Princet<strong>on</strong> University,Princet<strong>on</strong>, NJ, USA4. Department <strong>of</strong> Civil Engineering, M<strong>on</strong>ash University,Melbourne, VIC, Australia5. European Space Agency, Noordwijk, Ne<strong>the</strong>rlandsThe Soil Moisture and Ocean Salinity (SMOS) satellitemissi<strong>on</strong> is routinely providing novel accurate data with ahigh acquisiti<strong>on</strong> frequency at <strong>the</strong> global scale. However, <strong>the</strong>integrati<strong>on</strong> <strong>of</strong> low resoluti<strong>on</strong> SMOS observati<strong>on</strong>s into finerresoluti<strong>on</strong> land surface models poses significant challenges,through which <strong>the</strong> potential <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> satellite missi<strong>on</strong> foroperati<strong>on</strong>al hydrology is at present poorly understood.Therefore, this study aims at developing a robust end-to-endmethodology that allows for <strong>the</strong> assimilati<strong>on</strong> <strong>of</strong> SMOS data(ei<strong>the</strong>r brightness temperature or soil moisture) into landsurface models and for assessing <strong>the</strong> usefulness <strong>of</strong> SMOSdata with respect to flood forecast. The assimilati<strong>on</strong> systemis being set up for <strong>the</strong> Variable Infiltrati<strong>on</strong> Capacity (VIC)land surface model, coupled to a river routing scheme. TheVIC model will be run over two large river basins, <strong>the</strong> UpperMississippi Basin in central USA, and <strong>the</strong> Murray DarlingBasin in Eastern Australia, both <strong>of</strong> which are characterizedby a low c<strong>on</strong>taminati<strong>on</strong> with radio frequency interference(RFI). A radiative transfer model, <strong>the</strong> Community MicrowaveEmissi<strong>on</strong> Model (CMEM), is being coupled to VIC in orderto assimilate <strong>the</strong> top <strong>of</strong> atmosphere (TOA) brightnesstemperatures from SMOS over both river basins, in additi<strong>on</strong>to derived soil moisture. The data assimilati<strong>on</strong> system to beused is <strong>the</strong> Ensemble Kalman filter. Finally, differentdisaggregati<strong>on</strong> strategies will be explored to analyze <strong>the</strong>optimal way for integrating low resoluti<strong>on</strong> SMOSobservati<strong>on</strong>s into higher resoluti<strong>on</strong> land surface models.http://www.hydro-smos.be/Lievens, HansSoil moisture retrieval from SAR over bare soil andwheat fields based <strong>on</strong> Water Cloud modeling, <strong>the</strong>IEM and effective roughness parametersLievens, Hans 1 ; Verhoest, Niko 11. Laboratory <strong>of</strong> Hydrology and Water Management, GhentUniversity, Ghent, BelgiumThe retrieval <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> top surface soil moisture c<strong>on</strong>tentfrom Syn<strong>the</strong>tic Aperture Radar (SAR) has been extensivelystudied during <strong>the</strong> past decades; never<strong>the</strong>less, it remains achallenging task. Particularly for bare soil fields, <strong>the</strong>parameterizati<strong>on</strong> <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> surface roughness is veryambiguous. Field measurements <strong>of</strong> roughness parameters,such as <strong>the</strong> surface root mean square (RMS) height, show tobe highly variable even within <strong>on</strong>e agricultural field, andmoreover str<strong>on</strong>gly depend <strong>on</strong> <strong>the</strong> measurement techniqueapplied. Fur<strong>the</strong>rmore, <strong>the</strong> soil moisture retrieval <strong>of</strong>agricultural fields is <strong>of</strong>ten hampered by varying vegetati<strong>on</strong>effects <strong>on</strong> <strong>the</strong> backscattered signal al<strong>on</strong>g <strong>the</strong> growing seas<strong>on</strong>.This study analyses <strong>the</strong> potential and limits <strong>of</strong> a soilmoisture retrieval methodology which is based <strong>on</strong> <strong>the</strong> IEMand calibrated or effective roughness parameters. Theretrieval technique is applied to a large number <strong>of</strong> bare soilagricultural fields in Flevoland, The Ne<strong>the</strong>rlands, over whicha series <strong>of</strong> C-band RADARSAT-2 HH- and VV-polarizedacquisiti<strong>on</strong>s have been collected in <strong>the</strong> frame <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> AgriSAR2009 campaign, organized by <strong>the</strong> European Space Agency(ESA). The retrieval accuracy is found to be around 4 vol%,with slightly better performance for HH than VVpolarizati<strong>on</strong>. Fur<strong>the</strong>rmore, it is analyzed whe<strong>the</strong>r <strong>the</strong> soilmoisture retrieval methodology can be prol<strong>on</strong>gedthroughout <strong>the</strong> growing seas<strong>on</strong> <strong>of</strong> wheat. Therefore, <strong>the</strong>retrieval technique developed for bare soil fields is extendedthrough including a vegetati<strong>on</strong> backscatter model, i.e., <strong>the</strong>semi-empirical Water Cloud Model (WCM). A number <strong>of</strong>bulk vegetati<strong>on</strong> parameters, involving LAI, VWC, and LWAI,are investigated with regard to <strong>the</strong> modeling <strong>of</strong> wheatcanopy and <strong>the</strong> retrieval <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> underlying soil moisturec<strong>on</strong>tent. For a series <strong>of</strong> L-band E-SAR acquisiti<strong>on</strong>s duringAgriSAR 2006, <strong>the</strong> use <strong>of</strong> LAI yields <strong>the</strong> highest soil moistureretrieval accuracy, i.e., RMSE = 5.5 vol%. These results91
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esilience to hydrological hazards a
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Alfieri, Joseph G.The Factors Influ
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Montana and Oregon. Other applicati
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accuracy of snow derivation from si
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seasonal trends, and integrate clou
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used. PIHM has ability to simulate