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System AnalysisSystem Analysis – UC1In the case of ex-ante estimation for a single RI, the object of socio-economic impact assessment is the comparison of two future alternative situations:» The future development of the regional system without the RI (baseline scenario)This should not be confused with the situation at the moment of the project initiation, as some evolutions in the system during the analyzed period areassumed in the absence of the RI.» The future development of the regional system without the RI (success scenario)The evaluation of the impact is made according to a success scenario, a realistic picture of the system (RI & stakeholders) at the time horizon specified.Realism is based onRealism is based on• the project’s envisaged activities and interactions• experience from other similar cases• balanced estimation of stakeholders’ interests• a set of accepted assumptions about future trends and events.For comparison, the alternative developments should rely on• a common representation of the present socio-economic development• similar sets of assumptions of future events and transformations.The following figure describes the representation of the RI impact as difference between success and baseline scenario, in the simplified form of unifactorialevolutions.109