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Figure 14: Impact uncertainty matrix for classification of drivers.Drivers with high importance and high uncertainty are most likely to incur significant deviations from the initial success scenario developed on the basisof extrapolation of factors and trends during the System Dynamics Module. They form the pool of drivers around which alternative scenarios can bebuilt.Figure 15: Selection of drivers for alternative scenarios300
Selecting two drivers and building the Alternative Scenarios MatrixThe expert panel shall, by discussion and consensus, select two most uncertain drivers from the pool of high-impact-high-uncertainty drivers identifiedabove. These two drivers can be considered as ones that are most varying in their potential future expression, thus outlining a set of clearly distinguishedalternatives to the success scenario from the System Dynamics Module.Each of the two drivers selected for the Alternative Scenarios Matrix may have a positive or negative direction of development with regards to the RIsystem. The positive and negative expressions and evolutions of each of the two drivers along the axes form a set of four alternative future scenarios.Figure 16: Building alternative scenarios matrix301
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EditorsAdrian Curaj & Katja PookAut
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ForewordTen years after the first i
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List of contentsWhat can be expecte
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Category Reg.2: Political environme
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Jobs.2.7: Spending on HR by type of
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Eco.4.2: Initiatives to reduce poll
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TempEco.Int: Interview GuidelineTem
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Assessing RIs in Europe - the polic
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A simple, but important distinction
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The role of RIs beyond scientific i
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• A structured exploration of the
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Figure 1: Roles and an example of t
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FenRIAM consists of eight modules c
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try or the European Union as whole.
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Scoping - UC3The two most important
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Scoping - UC5The ex-ante estimation
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Category RI.1: Scientific Backgroun
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RI.1.2: Key scientific fields for u
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Category RI.2: Technical Performanc
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RI.2.2: Technical performance of th
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Category RI.3: Competing and Comple
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RI.3.2: Planned facilities of the s
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Category RI.4: Investor Consortium
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RI.4.2: Facility SiteRelevance:The
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RI.4.4: Motivations and expectation
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Category RI.5: Project Budget and C
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RI.5.2: Available construction fund
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RI.5.4: Available operation funds a
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Category RI.6: Scientific Activitie
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RI.6.2: R&D strategy and strategic
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RI.6.4: Strategy and resources for
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RI.6.6: Strategy and resources for
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Category RI.7: Procurement and Sale
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RI.7.2: Procurement process and pro
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RI.7.4: Industrial sectors and mark
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Category RI.8: Public RelationsHow
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Category RI.9: Human ResourcesHow w
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RI.9.2: HR planning and recruitment
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RI.9.4: Mean salary level by occupa
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Module Regio - Regional ProfileDivi
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Reg.1.1: Centrality, borders, and c
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Category Reg.2: Political environme
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Reg.2.2: Administrative organisatio
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Category Reg.3: Legal framework con
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Reg.3.2: Effectiveness/efficiency o
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Reg.3.4: Taxation and feesRelevance
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Reg.4.1: IT infrastructures and ser
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Reg.4.3: General suppliesRelevance:
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Category Reg.5: Labour marketWhat a
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Reg.5.2: Wages, pension policyRelev
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Category Reg.6: Regional economyWha
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Reg.6.2: Economic performance and c
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Reg.7.1: Existing research faciliti
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Reg.7.3: Educational systemRelevanc
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Figure 8: The RI impact as a differ
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System Analysis - UC2In the case of
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Suggested procedure for success sce
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Figure 10. The RI impact as differe
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System Analysis - UC4In the case of
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Impact AssessmentModule S+T: Scienc
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S+T.1.1: Services and opportunities
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S+T.1.3: Access and maintenance tim
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S+T.1.5: Monetary value of offered
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S+T.2.1: Publications (all types)Re
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S+T.2.3: New standards and procedur
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Category S+T.3: Innovation OutcomeH
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S+T.3.2: Instruments and productsRe
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Category S+T.4: Networking & Collab
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S+T.4.2: Research contracts & proje
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S+T.4.4: Organised scientific event
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S+T.4.6: Major networks with indust
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Category S+T.5: Impact on Suppliers
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S+T.5.3: High-tech contracts and ut
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S+T.5.5: Low-tech contractsRelevanc
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Category S+T.6: More impacts on fir
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S+T.6.2: Customers and contractsRel
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S+T.6.4: RevenuesRelevance:This ind
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S+T.6.6: Scientific papers cited in
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Module Jobs: Work & PopulationModul
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Jobs.1.1: Generated economic effect
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Jobs.2.1: HR by occupation category
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Jobs.2.3: Recruitment markets by oc
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Jobs.2.5: Type of contract by gende
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Jobs.2.7: Spending on HR by type of
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Category Jobs.3: Indirectly Created
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Jobs.3.2: Jobs created in spin-offs
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Category Jobs.4: Training of Studen
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Jobs.4.2: Nationality of trained st
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Jobs.4.4: Resources for research tr
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Jobs.4.6: Events for studentsReleva
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Category Jobs.5: Training of Scient
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Jobs.5.2: Scientific and technical
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Jobs.5.4: Expected impact of scient
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Jobs.6.1: General training programm
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Jobs.6.3: Annual Spending on Genera
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Category Jobs.7: Labour MarketWhat
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Jobs.7.2: Long-term impact on jobs
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Jobs.7.4: Long-term impact on salar
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Category Jobs.8: PopulationWhat is
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Jobs.8.2: Long-term Impact on Educa
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Jobs.8.4: Expected population trend
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Category Life.1: HealthWhich influe
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Life.1.2: Benefits for societyRelev
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Life.1.4: Impact on health care wor
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Category Life.2: EducationHow do ed
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Life.2.2: Changes of education infr
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Life.2.4: Challenges on the skills
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Category Life.3: CultureHow does th
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Life.3.2: Effects on socio-cultural
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Life.3.4: Significant additional de
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Category Life.4: Lifestyle and soci
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Life.4.2: Development of lifestyle,
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Life.4.4: Long-term effect on the q
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Category Eco.1: EnergyWhat energy i
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Eco.1.2: Specific requirements on t
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Eco.1.4: Initiatives for a sustaina
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Category Eco.2: Water & EffluentsWh
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Eco.2.2: Type, quantity, and effect
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Eco.2.4: Effects on water supply an
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Eco. 2.6: New knowledge, methods, t
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Eco.3.1: Quantity of waste by type
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Eco.3.3: Type and quantity of handl
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Eco.3.5: New knowledge, methods, te
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Page 259 and 260: Category Eco.6: Biodiversity & Habi
Page 261 and 262: Eco.6.2: Expected impacts of RI act
Page 263 and 264: Category Eco.7: Environmental Aware
Page 265 and 266: Eco.7.2: Impacts on environmental a
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Page 295 and 296: Alternative ScenariosIn this chapte
Page 297 and 298: Preparatory workPrior to the Altern
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Page 303 and 304: Examining wild cards effectsExamini
Page 305 and 306: ReportingThe final report of FenRIA
Page 307 and 308: Annex I: Templates for module S+TTh
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Page 337 and 338: S+T.3: InnovationNameTypeIPR1S+T.3.
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TempEco.4.1: Category Eco.4 - Selec
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TempEco.6.1: Category Eco.6 - Selec
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TempEco.Doc: Document Analysis Temp
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Eco.3: Materials & WasteEco.3.1: Qu
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Eco.5: RadiationEco.5.1: Type, leve
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TempEco.Int: Interview GuidelineQue
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Eco.2.3Question:What are the specif
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Eco.4: Emissions & NoiseEco.4.1Ques
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Eco.5.3Question:Are there any new d
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TempEco.Qu: Questionnaire (Please a
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Eco.3: Materials and WasteEco.3.1Qu
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TempRisk.1.1: Selection of data col
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TempRisk.Doc: Document Analysis Tem
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TempRiskDoc.4.1: External Risks for
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TempRisk.Int: Interview Guideline (
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Risk.4: External Risks for the Proj
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Temp RiskSupp: Interview Support Te
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RiskScale.2: Severity of EventsThis
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RiskMatrix: Risk Level DefinitionTh
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