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Examining wild cards effectsExamining the impact of “wild cards” within the framework of a given scenario is worthwhile for checking the RI system’s reaction to unexpected,surprising, disruptive, force-majeure events. Even though such shocks can hardly be anticipated, their consideration in advance brings valuable supportto taking long-term decisions.Figure 18: Check of the system against shocksThe expert panel is to apply the “What if…?” for assessing the impact of “wild cards” on a given scenario. One scenario can be “checked” against one ormore “wild cards”. There are no exhaustive criteria for selecting “wild cards” but some of the following could serve as guidance:• the “wild card” should be appropriate to the scenario, i.e. it is recommendable to be associated with the RI domain and the topic of the scenario, inorder to uncover useful additional information.• It should be as original as possible, i.e. not taken into account in the process of scenario development thus far.• “Wild cards” could be negative, i.e. would undermine the scenario constructed (an earthquake or another natural disaster for a nuclear RI), or positive,i.e. ones that could bring considerable valuable impact on the RI system, e.g. a scientific breakthrough beyond the expectations for the RI domainadvancements.• In order to avoid “prejudice” or to bring more creativity and open-mindedness to the process, it is recommendable to incorporate external expertisefor assessing the impact of “wild cards” on the four scenarios developed.303