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Development of the alternative scenarios narrativesAlternative Scenarios are plausible shared visions of the future, described in narrative form, that provide an opportunity for the RI to anticipate how toposition itself in those future alternatives and to take its present day decisions in a strategic manner. Scenarios are creative internally consistent storiesthat “flesh out” the set of alternatives defined by the two axes of the most uncertain drivers.Why develop scenarios?• Scenarios provide a context in which managers can make decisions• Scenarios are not forecast of the future, they do not predict the future, they only illuminate important drivers of change• Understanding these drivers can only help managers take into consideration the range of possible future developments and take better informeddecisions• A strategy based on this insight is most likely to succeedThe expert panel shall develop the 4 scenarios in a narrative form (a story) using as a basis the success scenario developed in the System Dynamics Module.The scenarios shall differ by the different evolutions of the two drivers selected as ones with highest impact and highest uncertainty. Each scenarioshall describe what would the RI system look like at the time horizon set (in the System Dynamics module), with the major drivers leading to that alternativedevelopment and the major events occurred.Figure 17: Scenario development302