Basic Research Needs for Geosciences - Energetics Meetings and ...

GRAND CHALLENGE:INTEGRATED CHARACTERIZATION, MODELING, AND MONITORING OF GEOLOGIC SYSTEMSImproved sensitivity and uncertainty analysis methods are needed for a better understanding ofmodels, data and assumptions so as to improve the quality of the evidence and the transparencyof the results. Advanced methods should explore all sources of uncertainty simultaneously acrossscales and should apply to nonlinear models so as to capture singularities and interactions.SCIENTIFIC IMPACTSIntegration of models and data. Model results will be improved by making the best use of allavailable data. Evaluation of model data structures and uncertainty has to be matched incomplexity and resolution. Data collection will be improved by using models to identify the mostvaluable data, an iterative process that might be referred to as “data-driven model developmentand model-driven data collection.” Using a diverse set of data that simultaneously provideinformation about different characteristics of the system can be expected to reduce the nonuniquenessof inverse modeling results. The result will be improved imaging, and inverse andcoupled monitoring-simulation capabilities that promote a better understanding and prediction ofcomplex and coupled subsurface responses to perturbations over decadal to century time scales,including their uncertainties.Enhanced prediction of rock and fluid properties. This will include better techniques for imaginggeologic features that enhance or inhibit flow and better characterization of statistical propertiesat a variety of scales. Images of surface properties will have enhanced resolution and accuracy.Breakthroughs could include remote detection of chemical and biological processes, anddramatically improved mapping of rock type, mineralogy, porosity, permeability, temperature,pressure, saturation, and fluid movement and transport.Improved understanding of coupled processes in geologic systems. Advancements in measuringand imaging techniques will be built upon discovering and understanding links such as:• Geophysical signals from biological, chemical and mechanical processes• Geochemical links to porosity, permeability, mineralogy, fluid fluxes• Geomechanical causes/consequences of fluid transport and geochemical activity• Chemical and fluid impacts on faulting, fracturing and seismicityBetter resource allocation in model development and application. By identifying and isolatingthe sources of errors in model results, resources can be optimally allocated between sitecharacterization, conceptual model development, improvements in modeling methods andsimulation codes, and application of additional computational capabilities.Increased model defensibility. Predictive uncertainty will be reduced by identifying significantcontributing errors and data deficiencies and through the collection of relevant data and themodification of models. Quantification of uncertainties will facilitate better communication ofthe reliability of model results. Explicitly accounting for model limitations will increase thetransparency of the modeling process and improve acceptance of model results. In addition, theclose coupling of characterization, modeling and monitoring will permit identification of rare,extreme mechanisms that accompany large-scale manipulations and that may not have beenrealized during the development of a conceptual model.Basic Research Needs for Geosciences: Facilitating 21 st Century Energy Systems 91