Basic Research Needs for Geosciences - Energetics Meetings and ...

GRAND CHALLENGE:INTEGRATED CHARACTERIZATION, MODELING, AND MONITORING OF GEOLOGIC SYSTEMSTECHNOLOGY IMPACTSMore predictable consequences of subsurface storage and containment. Improved description ofthe in situ geologic/chemical/mechanical system, and improved understanding of the storagecharacteristics and their dynamic response of the in situ system to natural (e.g., climate,earthquake) and anthropogenic (e.g., injection, withdrawal) perturbations, will lead to improvedsimulation and reduced uncertainty and risk.Real-time model adaptation. Given the time-consuming nature of today’s model-buildingprocess, restructuring model development will improve the discovery process by freeing thescientist to experiment with the system, rather than manage data and tune models. Thecontinually evolving system would be linked to a model that is updated in real time.Accompanying analyses of all sources of error would enable scientists to make decisionsregarding data collection and adjustment of operating variables to maximize the informationcontent of the data.Model validity and improved communication. The concept of model validity is fraught withphilosophical difficulties related to provability of a scientific hypothesis (e.g., Oreskes 2000). Adata-driven modeling paradigm, with continuous updating and error assessment, will move thedialog beyond theoretical discussions of model validity to the much more useful discussion ofthe state of knowledge of a particular system, and improved communication between scientists,managers, regulators, and the public.Unified modeling architecture. An integrated approach involving applied mathematicians,computer scientists, and geoscientists is required. This can only happen in a unified frameworkthat replaces the current splintered research approach. A unified modeling architecture wouldencourage a community software environment in which large portions of software would bereused, updated regularly, and controlled. Active management of the intellectual output andsoftware projects would enable rapid advances in software codes and numerical methods.Integrated, diverse measurement technologies. Development of novel instrumentation andprocedures will lead to simultaneous measurements of geological, geophysical, hydrological andgeochemical processes. Examples might include (i) miniaturized sensors to simultaneouslysample fluid chemistry while recording geophysical signals; (ii) new geophysical measurementsthat can sense changes in enhanced mineralization; (iii) field protocols for accurate and costeffectivesimultaneous measurements. Sensors will be smaller, cheaper and faster to deploy.Early detection of anomalies. Development of much improved techniques for characterization,modeling, and monitoring of the subsurface will allow creation of systems that can be usedroutinely to detect and quantify phenomena that provide the earliest indication of unexpectedprocesses or signs of impending failure of the manipulated system. In the implementation phase,the primary system performance indicator will be the ability to detect and quantify anomalousevents in near real-time, so that hazards can be mitigated or remediated before overall storagesystem integrity is compromised.92 Basic Research Needs for Geosciences: Facilitating 21 st Century Energy Systems