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Basic Research Needs for Geosciences - Energetics Meetings and ...

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APPENDIX 1: TECHNICAL PERSPECTIVES RESOURCE DOCUMENTfrequency <strong>and</strong> location. Technical issues associated with monitoring include instrumentation,data acquisition system, data management (storage, retrieval, dissemination), <strong>and</strong> datainterpretation.3. Reversibility <strong>and</strong> retrievabilityWhile geologic disposal of radioactive waste is based on the principle that waste will only beemplaced in a repository when there is high confidence in the ultimate long-term safety withoutrelying on actions following the closure of the repository, most repository development programsinclude the possibility of post-closure activities <strong>for</strong> security <strong>and</strong> monitoring purposes (NuclearEnergy Agency 2001). Reversibility denotes the possibility of reversing one or a series of stepsin repository planning or development at any stage of the program. Retrievability denotes thepossibility of reversing the action of waste emplacement. This flexibility is needed to be able torespond to new technical in<strong>for</strong>mation regarding the site or repository design, new technologicaladvances regarding waste treatment <strong>and</strong> waste management, <strong>and</strong> changes in the societal,political, <strong>and</strong> regulatory environment. The ability to retrieve nuclear waste depends on therepository design <strong>and</strong> its interaction with the natural system. Design concepts that hinder orpromote waste retrievability need to be examined, <strong>and</strong> related criteria <strong>for</strong> the geologic system<strong>and</strong> repository design need to be developed. In addition, techniques <strong>and</strong> equipment need to bedeveloped <strong>for</strong> the mining of waste at potentially high temperature <strong>and</strong> radiation levels.4. Natural analogsThe study of natural analogs is a potentially powerful method to underst<strong>and</strong> the long-termbehavior of natural <strong>and</strong> engineered systems (IAEA 1989; Murphy 2000; DOE 2004). Naturalanalogs exhibit materials or processes that resemble those expected in a geologic repository.They can be used to develop or test methodologies <strong>and</strong> models, or (more directly) to analyze thelong-term behavior of an approximate system, which is not feasible by active testing. Amethodology needs to be developed <strong>for</strong> selecting <strong>and</strong> analyzing natural analogs, <strong>and</strong> to assesstheir representativeness <strong>for</strong> a specific waste disposal site.5. ModelingLong-term repository per<strong>for</strong>mance is largely assessed through the use of numerical models(Bredehoeft 2003). There are many scientific <strong>and</strong> technological challenges <strong>for</strong> development,calibration, validation, use, <strong>and</strong> uncertainty of numerical models (Oreskes et al. 1994; Lemons1996). These challenges lead to a variety of research needs, including the development ofapproaches <strong>and</strong> tools to:• Accurately simulate highly nonlinear, coupled processes at multiple spatial <strong>and</strong> temporalscales• Identify the most appropriate model structure suitable <strong>for</strong> the prediction needs, given limitedcharacterization <strong>and</strong> calibration data, <strong>and</strong> identify opportunities <strong>for</strong> additionalcharacterization <strong>and</strong> calibration data collection to enhance the predictive model structure• Infer process-relevant, scale-dependent, <strong>and</strong> model-related parameters• Resolve inherent inconsistencies in scale <strong>and</strong> data type between characterization data, modelparameters, <strong>and</strong> prediction variables• Characterize aleatory uncertainty <strong>and</strong> quantify <strong>and</strong> reduce epistemic uncertainty• Propagate aleatory <strong>and</strong> epistemic uncertainty through prediction modelsAppendix 1 • 42<strong>Basic</strong> <strong>Research</strong> <strong>Needs</strong> <strong>for</strong> <strong>Geosciences</strong>: Facilitating 21 st Century Energy Systems

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