Untitled - The Future Ocean

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2.1.3 Research Topic A3: Present and Future CO 2 UptakeCoordinators:Prof. Böning, ClausProf. Srivastav, Anand26.09.1954 16.03.1958Leibniz-Institut für Meereswissenschaften Christian-Albrechts-Universität zu KielIFM-GEOMARInstitut für Informatik und PraktischeFB1 Ozeanzirkulation und Klimadynamik MathematikDüsternbrooker Weg 20Christian-Albrechts-Platz 424105 Kiel24118 KielTel.: 0431-600 4003Tel.: 0431-880 7252Fax: 0431-600 4012Fax: 0431-880 1725Email: cboening@ifm-geomar.deEmail: asr@numerik.uni-kiel.deFurther Proponents: R. Schneider, C. Eden, M. Latif, M. Visbeck, D. Wallace, K. Wirtz1. Summary / ZusammenfassungAn assessment of the fate and future evolution of the oceanic CO 2 uptake is of central importancefor projections of both climate change and of changes in oceanic ecosystems. Modeling thecoupled system of ocean circulation and biogeochemistry has become a key tool for understandingthe principle physical and biological mechanisms which govern the ocean carbon cycle and itsvariability. The reliability of model-based projections of anthropogenic changes is still severelyhindered, however, by strong model dependencies on the representation of many poorlyconstrained processes, both in the physical and in the biogeochemical system. We propose toadvance this field by exploring novel approaches of combining model simulations with oceanicmeasurements, with the objective of the identification and improved representation of the criticalprocesses governing circulation and carbon cycling in the ocean. Building on the combinedexpertise and activities of the participating groups in ocean circulation and carbon cycle modelingon the one hand and in modern aspects of inverse modeling and optimization theory on the otherhand, the JRG will explore innovative methods for assimilating data in three-dimensional oceancarbon-cycle models to systematically assess and reduce model uncertainties as a key steptoward reliable determinations of natural variability and anthropogenic changes in the physical andbiogeochemical properties related to current and future oceanic CO 2 uptake.Die Prognosen sowohl von Klimaänderungen als auch von Veränderungen ozeanischerÖkosysteme hängen entscheidend von der zukünftigen Entwicklung der ozeanischen CO 2 -Aufnahme ab. Während das Verständnis der dabei beteiligten Mechanismen durch gekoppelteModelle der ozeanischen Zirkulation und Biogeochemie sehr befördert worden ist, sind quantitativeModellprognosen durch Defizite in der Darstellung der beteiligten Prozesse noch sehreingeschränkt. Die Nachwuchsgruppe wird durch innovative Ansätze in der Modell-Daten-41
Synthese, aufbauend auf einer Kombination der Expertise in hochauflösender Ozeanmodellierungam IFM-GEOMAR und in modernen Methoden nichtlinearer Optimierung am Zentrum fürNumerische Simulation der CAU Kiel, einen neuen Weg beschreiten, der über eine verbesserteDarstellung der kritischen Prozesse zu belastbaren Aussagen über Veränderungen in denphysikalischen und biogeochemischen Eigenschaften des Ozeans führt.Annual mean air-sea CO 2 exchange in three different models in mol C/m 2 /yr. Negative values(blue) denote uptake of CO 2 by the ocean. The figure demonstrates how a typical bias in thephysical model affects CO 2 uptake: a wrong pathway of the North Atlantic Current offNewfoundland in a model with low resolution (b) leads to a large and unrealistic release of carbonby the subpolar North Atlantic. In a corrected model using simple data assimilation schemes (a)this bias is reduced, and the simulation is similar to a simulation with drastically increasedresolution (c) (a and b from Eden and Oschlies 2006).2. State-of-the-artObservational compilations of the ocean's inorganic carbon inventory indicate that the ocean mayhave taken up about half of the total anthropogenic CO 2 emissions created since the beginning ofthe industrial period (Sabine et al. 2004). Due to the required, basic assumptions, currentestimates involve uncertainties of at least 20% in anthropogenic CO 2 , particularly in regionaldistributions (Wanninkhof et al. 1999). Quantitative understanding of oceanic uptake and carboncycling has been aided by ocean circulation models coupled to certain types of carbon chemistry(Maier-Reimer and Hasselmann 1987, Tanhua et al. 2006). Model comparison studies reveal,however, large inter-model differences in the regional patterns of storage and fluxes ofanthropogenic CO 2 (Orr et al. 2001). These appear to be partly related to biases which are typicalof coarse-resolution ocean models (Doney et al. 2004, Eden and Oschlies 2006) and partly to thesimplified treatment of biogeochemical processes which are of potential importance for the carboncycle, but are poorly constrained by observations (Aumont et al. 1999, LeQuere et al. 2000, Wetzelet al. 2005). Recent research has begun to explore inverse methods for optimizing biogeochemicalmodel parameters (Fasham and Evans 1995, Schartau et al. 2001), but has thus far, however,primarily focused on one dimension, thus overlooking the effects of lateral advection and mixing(Oschlies and Schartau 2005).42
Page 7 and 8: Contents1 General Information about
Page 9 and 10: 1 General Information about the Clu
Page 11 and 12: 1.2 Research Program1.2.1 Summary/Z
Page 13 and 14: 1.2.2.2 ObjectivesThe Future Ocean
Page 15 and 16: will address the emerging new resea
Page 17 and 18: Topics Objectives DisciplinesA1 Exa
Page 19 and 20: development of these new initiative
Page 21 and 22: Project Objective IndustryPartnersO
Page 23 and 24: Continued excellence in the field o
Page 25 and 26: The establishment of several new po
Page 27 and 28: 1.4.1 Integrated School of Ocean Sc
Page 29 and 30: ensure that emerging innovations wi
Page 31 and 32: Institute / DisciplineAcademic Leve
Page 33 and 34: their orientation according to the
Page 35 and 36: 1.7.2 Structural Evolution and Qual
Page 37 and 38: 30- Notes -
Page 39 and 40: organisms to elevated CO 2 and decr
Page 41 and 42: ist wahrscheinlich stärker als wä
Page 43 and 44: out by the proponents and will esta
Page 45 and 46: Rückkopplungsschleife weitere Erw
Page 47: enthic biota of gas release or the
Page 51 and 52: (4) a determination of the impact o
Page 53 and 54: Einflüsse. Um deren Auswirkungen b
Page 55 and 56: on longer time scales. The latter t
Page 57 and 58: werden kann. Allerdings sind die ch
Page 59 and 60: the expertise which already exists
Page 61 and 62: 2. State-of-the-artThe changing com
Page 63 and 64: • Field and laboratory investigat
Page 65 and 66: Erwärmung der Ozeane kann zur Frei
Page 67 and 68: Valuing the Ocean: Research focus a
Page 69 and 70: submarine earthquakes, slumps and s
Page 71 and 72: Fischerei ist eine der wichtigsten
Page 73 and 74: ecosystems. In particular, the foll
Page 75 and 76: Hochdurchsatztechnologien die Evolu
Page 77 and 78: microbial diversity on their barrie
Page 79 and 80: transient three-dimensional fluid f
Page 81 and 82: modeling, which describe chemical a
Page 83 and 84: Erdbeben, submarine Hangrutschungen
Page 85 and 86: Simons 2003) to investigate shallow
Page 87 and 88: damit zusammenhängender Meeresspie
Page 89 and 90: B5(1) Sea-Level Rise and Physical-M
Page 91 and 92: Pickrill RA, Todd BJ (2003) The mul
Page 93 and 94: Onate E, Piazzese J (2005) Decision
Page 95 and 96: echtlichen und ökonomischen Rahmen
Page 97 and 98: marine resources, such as energy ex
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92- Notes -
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2. State-of-the-artThe variety of n
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and will benefit from expertise in
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Die Plattform 2 stellt die analytis
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4. New Cluster TechnologiesIn order
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(iv) Proteomanalysetechniken und (v
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4. New Cluster TechnologiesA specia
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Illustration of existing/emerging a
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physical parameters (e.g. lowered a
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etabliert, das insbesondere auf wis
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2.4.3.2 Central Funds for Transfer
Page 121 and 122:
International School of Ocean Scien
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Description Year of purchase Amount
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3.2 Auxiliary Support3.2.1 Total Fu
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120- Notes -
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Suess E, Torres ME, Bohrmann G, Col
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Schreiber, StefanVisbeck, MartinSri
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4.3 Third-Party FundingNo. FundingB
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Leibniz Institute of Marine Science
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These JRG’s will augment the expe
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The Cluster is embedded in the “K
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A14- Notes -
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4.6 Curricula Vitae and Lists of Pu
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Curriculum of ResearchPersonal Data
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A82- Notes -
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DEKLIMGerman Climate Research Progr
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ITQ’sISAISOSJRGKCMSKitzLALIFLIMSL
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WTOWTSHXAFSXRDZMBWorld Trade Organi
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Prof. Dr. Boris Culik • Maritimes
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GMT-Geschäf*sstelleWe"*w{eltJ"*n $
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f,rylheonRaytheon Anschütz GmbHPos
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