Untitled - The Future Ocean

ecosystems. In particular, the following objectives will be addressed: (1) Evaluation, improvementand coupling of multi-species and ecosystem models with respect to their applicability inecosystem-based fishery management; (2) coupling of improved dynamic and stochastic multispecies/ ecosystem models with economic models to substitute Gordon-Schäfer approaches; (3)development of ecologic and economic indicators to evaluate management performance; (4)creation of policy rules for decentralized decision making, e.g., indicator-based individually tradablefishing quotas (ITQ’s) including regimes for banking and non-linear landing fees, combined withtechnological and behavioral standards; (5) simulation of scenarios on the basis of the modelsoutlined above using advanced numerical methods with stochastic parameters and (6) employmentof an integrated approach to ecological dynamics and the human use of marine resources for thepurpose of evaluating policy scenarios.The intensive modeling approach, including stochastic components, requires strong support by P1.Links are given to topics defined under B2, B5 and A7. B6 investigates the degree to which newlydeveloped decentralizing incentive schemes are compatible with international law. Results fromA1, A3, and A4 will be important for forecasting ecological indicators, such as temperature, CO 2concentrations and salinity, which are crucial for the development of species populations.5. ReferencesBrowman HI, Stergiou KI (eds) (2004) Perspectives on ecosystem-based approaches to themanagement of marine resources. Mar. Ecol. Prog. Ser. 274, 269–303.Carson T, Granger C, Jackson J, Schlenker W (2005) Are Current Fisheries Management ModelsWrong? UCSD-Disc. Paper, Dept. of Economics & Scripps Institution of Oceanography.Christensen V, Pauly D (1992) Ecopath II—a software for balancing steady-state ecosystemmodels and calculating network characteristics. Ecol. Model. 61, 169–185.Gentleman WC (2002) A chronology of plankton dynamics in silico: How computer models havebeen used to study marine ecosystems. Hydrobiologia 480, 69-85.Luna-Reyes LF, Andersen DL (2003) Collecting and analyzing qualitative data for systemdynamics: Methods and models. Syst. Dynam. Rev. 19(4), 271-296.Moslener U, Requate T (2006) Abatement in the Multi-Pollutant Case: When Stock-Pollutants areComplements or Substitutes. J. Econ. Dyn. Control (in press).Pauly D, Christensen V, Dalsgaard J, Froese R, Torres F Jr (1998) Fishing down marine foodwebs. Science 279, 860-863.Settle C, Crocker TD, Shogren JF (2002) On the joint determination of biological and economicsystems. Ecol. Econ. 42, 301-312.Sommer U, Sommer F (2005) Cladocerans versus copepods: the cause of contrasting top-downcontrols on freshwater and marine phytoplankton. Oecologia 135, 639-647.Wätzold F et al. (2006) Ecological-economic modeling for biodiversity management: Potential,pitfalls, prospects. Conserv. Biol. (in press).66