GAW Report No. 205 - IGAC Project

CHAPTER 6 - EUROPEfulfilled for the daily limit values set in 2010. According to model calculations the situation might beimproved by 2015 (see Figure 22).Figure 22 - (a) PM10, number of days with daily average above 50 µg/m 3 for the base case, reference year 2006 (b) Thescenario 2015 with an emission projection for 2015 (CLE). Based on calculations with the EURAD-model [Memmesheimer etal., 2009]. (c) NO2, number of days with daily average above 50 µg/m 3 for the base case, reference year 2006 (d) Thescenario 2015 with an NO2 emission projection for 2015 (CLE). Based on calculations with the EURAD-model[Memmesheimer et al., 2009]Annual averages of near surface ozone over Europe show an increasing trend on a decadalbasis since the 1990s [Vautard et al., 2006] whereas the number of episodes with high ozonevalues, e.g. with hourly values above the information or alert level (180 µg/m 3 , 240 µg/m 3 ), show atendency to decrease. The decrease of ozone precursors over Europe during the 1990s led to anozone increase both during urban minima and urban maxima due to less titration (see also Figure23). Especially during winter, with less photochemistry, one might expect less ozone in the urbanareas for the ‘1990’ simulation due to titration effects. However, in addition to the impact of regionalprecursor emissions, there are several processes which influence the average and high ozoneconcentrations as e.g. stratospheric intrusion events, stratospheric depletion of ozone, long-rangetransport, and global increase of ozone precursor emissions.Health effects of air pollution have been discussed for the European scale within the CAFEprogramme [Amann et al., 2005]. It was estimated that the losses in statistical life expectancyattributable to the exposure to anthropogenic PM 2.5 for the EU-25 is 8.1 months. It turned out thatthis value is considerably higher for Belgium (13.2 months) and the Netherlands (11.8 months),which show the highest value within the EU-25, in contrast to Finland with 2.6 months, which is thelowest value. All numbers are for the reference year 2000. It can be expected that the loss in life219