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Demographic

Swaziland 2007 - (NERCHA), the Info Centre - National Emergency ...

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Nonetheless, the results in Table 4.3 show that fertilityhas dropped substantially among all age groups over the pasttwo decades. This decline is most obvious in the 15 yearspreceding the survey, with the largest decline observedbetween the two most recent five-year periods. Fertilitydecline is steepest among the cohort age 30-34, with a 60percent decline between the period 15-19 years before thesurvey and the period 0-4 years before the survey.Another way to examine fertility trends is to comparecurrent estimates with earlier surveys. Table 4.4 and Figure4.2 show the ASFRs for the 1986 and 1997 Population andHousing Censuses (PHC), 1991 <strong>Demographic</strong> and HousingSurvey (DHS), and 2006-07 SDHS. Estimates prior to theSDHS were calculated using information on total number ofchildren ever born and surviving. The data indicate that fertilityhas been declining rapidly in Swaziland, with the TFRfalling from 6.4 in the 1986 PHC to 4.5 in 1997 PHC, and to3.8 in the 2006-07 SDHS. This translates to a decrease of 2.6births since 1986.Table 4.4 Trends in fertilityAge-specific fertility rates (per 1,000 women) andtotal fertility rates for the three years preceding thesurvey, Swaziland 1986, 1991, 1997, and 2006-07Age group1986PHC1991DHS1997PHC2006-07SDHS15-19 145 134 90 11120-24 289 253 211 20225-29 279 252 210 16530-34 246 208 169 15935-39 178 147 133 9940-44 89 88 64 3045-49 45 35 31 4TFR 6.4 5.6 4.5 3.8DHS = <strong>Demographic</strong> and Housing SurveyPHC = Population and Housing CensusSources: CSO, 1976 Population and HousingCensus, Vol. 1; CSO, 1986 Population andHousing Census, Vol. 4; CSO, 1997 Populationand Housing Census Vol. 4.A substantial fertility decline has occurred in all age groups. Between 1986 and 1997, the largestdecline took place among the younger age groups, but since 1997, larger declines in ASFR are observedamong older women (Figure 4.2).Figure 4.2 Trends in Fertility300250Births per 1,000 women+&+&+200150+&% %&%+&%100500%+ &%+%&15-19 20-24 25-29 30-34 35-39 40-44 45-49Age group+ PHC 1986 & DHS 1991 % PHC 1997 SDHS 2006-07SDHS 2006-0752 | Fertility Levels, Trends, and Differentials

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