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Diagnosis and Management of Infantile Hemangioma

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scans, had a sensitivity <strong>of</strong> 20 percent (95% CI: 3.30% to 71.19%), <strong>and</strong> the sensitivity <strong>of</strong> MRI was<br />

100 percent (95% CI: 66.21% to 100%).<br />

In a retrospective cohort study, 70 ultrasound was commonly used as the first imaging<br />

technique <strong>and</strong> identified lesions in 42 <strong>of</strong> 44 patients (sensitivity <strong>of</strong> 95%). Ultrasound identified<br />

direct shunts in 9 <strong>of</strong> 10 patients with shunts identified by angiography. Children with findings <strong>of</strong><br />

congestive heart failure or aortic tapering on imaging were more likely to require intervention for<br />

their hepatic lesion. Given the small number <strong>of</strong> studies <strong>and</strong> heterogeneity <strong>of</strong> interventions <strong>and</strong><br />

outcomes, we considered SOE to be insufficient for all outcomes.<br />

Key Question 2. Effectiveness <strong>and</strong> Harms <strong>of</strong> Corticosteroids<br />

or Beta-Blockers<br />

Network Meta-Analysis <strong>of</strong> the Effectiveness <strong>of</strong> Pharmacologic<br />

Agents<br />

Full <strong>and</strong> detailed methods <strong>and</strong> results <strong>of</strong> the network meta-analysis are available in Appendix<br />

D. Effect measures (Table 4) reflect effects on the logit scale <strong>and</strong> are not immediately clinically<br />

interpretable, but they demonstrate the nominal superiority <strong>of</strong> beta-blockers. Specifically, oral<br />

propranolol had the highest estimated effect size, though there is overlap among the credible<br />

intervals <strong>of</strong> the estimates. The estimated additive effect <strong>of</strong> intralesional delivery for propranolol<br />

was -6.9 (95% Bayesian credible interval [BCI]: -11.9 to -2.5).<br />

Table 4. Posterior estimates <strong>of</strong> effect size<br />

Agent Mean St<strong>and</strong>ard Error<br />

95% Credible<br />

Interval<br />

Oral propranolol 6.0 0.7 [4.7 7.5]<br />

Topical timolol 3.5 0.5 [2.4 4.6]<br />

Intralesional triamcinolone 3.3 0.8 [1.7 4.9]<br />

Oral steroid 2.6 0.5 [1.8 3.6]<br />

Note: Table illustrates posterior estimates <strong>of</strong> effect size, on logit scale, relative to control, along with st<strong>and</strong>ard error <strong>and</strong> 95%<br />

credible interval. Positive values indicate increased clearance relative to control, negative indicate decreased clearance.<br />

More clinically interpretable are the clearance rates, presented in Figure 5, which presents<br />

mean expected clearance rates <strong>and</strong> our confidence bounds around the estimates. The expected<br />

efficacy <strong>of</strong> control arms was estimated to be 6 percent (95% BCI: 1% to 11%), i.e., we would<br />

expect to see, on average, 6 percent clearance <strong>of</strong> IH in children who receive placebo or no<br />

treatment during the study period. All non-control treatments were estimated to have a larger<br />

expected clearance than control.<br />

The largest mean estimate <strong>of</strong> clearance was for oral propranolol (95%, 95% BCI: 88% to<br />

99%). Clearance associated with the use <strong>of</strong> oral steroids was 43% (95% BCI: 21% to 66%), thus<br />

providing a clearance rate intermediate to control <strong>and</strong> use <strong>of</strong> beta-blockers. Triamcinolone, an<br />

intralesional injectable steroid, had a higher clearance rate than oral steroids, with wide BCI<br />

(58%; 95% BCI: 22% to 99%). Few data were available for intralesional propranolol, which is<br />

reflected in its larger credible interval (estimated clearance: 9%, 95% BCI: 0 to 45%).<br />

With fairly wide confidence bounds <strong>and</strong> limited data in some areas, the relative differences<br />

among estimates are <strong>of</strong> greater importance than absolute effects in interpreting these results. The<br />

estimates provide a relative ranking <strong>of</strong> anticipated rates <strong>of</strong> lesion clearance among treatment<br />

options. Families <strong>and</strong> clinicians making treatment decisions should also factor in elements such<br />

22

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