Thinking, Fast and Slow - Daniel Kahneman

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descriptions of two people: Solomon E. Asch, “Forming {#823. Impressions of Personality,” Journal of Abnormal and Social Psychology 41 (1946): 258–90. all six adjectives: Ibid. Wisdom of Crowds: James Surowiecki, The Wisdom of Crowds (New York: Anchor Books, 2005). one-sided evidence: Lyle A. Brenner, Derek J. Koehler, and Amos Tversky, “On the Evaluation of One-Sided Evidence,” Journal of Behavioral Decision Making 9 (1996): 59–70. 8: How Judgments Happen biological roots: Alexander Todorov, Sean G. Baron, and Nikolaas N. Oosterhof, “Evaluating Face Trustworthiness: A Model-Based Approach,” Social Cognitive and Affective Neuroscience 3 (2008): 119–27. friendly or hostile: Alexander Todorov, Chris P. Said, Andrew D. Engell, and Nikolaas N. Oosterhof, “Understanding Evaluation of Faces on Social Dimensions,” Trends in Cognitive Sciences 12 (2008): 455–60. may spell trouble: Alexander Todorov, Manish Pakrashi, and Nikolaas N. Oosterhof, “Evaluating Faces on Trustworthiness After Minimal Time Exposure,” Social Cognition 27 (2009): 813–33. Australia, Germany, and Mexico: Alexander Todorov et al., “Inference of Competence from Faces Predict Election Outcomes,” Science 308 (2005): 1623–26. Charles C. Ballew and Alexander Todorov, “Predicting Political Elections from Rapid and Unreflective Face Judgments,” PNAS 104 (2007): 17948–53. Christopher Y. Olivola and Alexander Todorov, “Elected in 100 Milliseconds: Appearance-Based Trait Inferences and Voting,” Journal of Nonverbal Behavior 34 (2010): 83–110. watch less television: Gabriel Lenz and Chappell Lawson, “Looking the Part: Television Leads Less Informed Citizens to Vote Based on Candidates’ Appearance,” American Journal of Political Science (forthcoming). absence of a specific task set: Amos Tversky and Daniel Kahneman, “Extensional Versus Intuitive Reasoning: The Conjunction Fallacy in Probability Judgment,” Psychological Review 90 (1983): 293–315. Exxon Valdez: William H. Desvousges et al., “Measuring Natural Resource Damages with Contingent Valuation: Tests of Validity and Reliability,” in Contingent Valuation: A Critical Assessment, ed. Jerry A. Hausman (Amsterdam: North-Holland, 1993), 91–159.
sense of injustice: Stanley S. Stevens, Psychophysics: Introduction to Its Perceptual, Neural, and Social Prospect (New York: Wiley, 1975). detected that the words rhymed: Mark S. Seidenberg and Michael K. Tanenhaus, “Orthographic Effects on Rhyme Monitoring,” Journal of Experimental Psychology—Human Learning and Memory 5 (1979): 546–54. 95–96 sentence was literally true: Sam Glucksberg, Patricia Gildea, and Howard G. Boo {How> Journal of Verbal Learning and Verbal Behavior 21 (1982): 85–98. 9: Answering an Easier Question an intuitive answer to it came readily to mind: An alternative approach to judgment heuristics has been proposed by Gerd Gigerenzer, Peter M. Todd, and the ABC Research Group, in Simple Heuristics That Make Us Smart (New York: Oxford University Press, 1999). They describe “fast and frugal” formal procedures such as “Take the best [cue],” which under some circumstances generate quite accurate judgments on the basis of little information. As Gigerenzer has emphasized, his heuristics are different from those that Amos and I studied, and he has stressed their accuracy rather than the biases to which they inevitably lead. Much of the research that supports fast and frugal heuristic uses statistical simulations to show that they could work in some real-life situations, but the evidence for the psychological reality of these heuristics remains thin and contested. The most memorable discovery associated with this approach is the recognition heuristic, illustrated by an example that has become well-known: a subject who is asked which of two cities is larger and recognizes one of them should guess that the one she recognizes is larger. The recognition heuristic works fairly well if the subject knows that the city she recognizes is large; if she knows it to be small, however, she will quite reasonably guess that the unknown city is larger. Contrary to the theory, the subjects use more than the recognition cue: Daniel M. Oppenheimer, “Not So Fast! (and Not So Frugal!): Rethinking the Recognition Heuristic,” Cognition 90 (2003): B1–B9. A weakness of the theory is that, from what we know of the mind, there is no need for heuristics to be frugal. The brain processes vast amounts of information in parallel, and the mind can be fast and accurate without ignoring information. Furthermore, it has been known since the early days of research on chess masters that skill need not consist of learning to use less information. On the contrary, skill is more often an ability to deal with large amounts of information quickly and efficiently. best examples of substitution: Fritz Strack, Leonard L. Martin, and Norbert Schwarz, “Priming and Communication: Social Determinants of Information Use in Judgments of Life Satisfaction,” European Journal of Social Psychology 18 (1988): 429–42. correlations between psychological measures: The correlation was .66. dominates happiness reports: Other substitution topics include marital satisfaction, job satisfaction, and leisure time satisfaction: Norbert Schwarz, Fritz Strack, and Hans-Peter Mai,
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A 1 E=mc 2 This eBook is provided b
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Contents Introduction Part I. Two S
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Part V. Two Selves 35. Two Selves 3
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So this is my aim for watercooler c
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participants in our experiments ign
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easy to identify a small change in
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From what we know about the accurac
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agents in classical economics and i
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Psychologists have been intensely i
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Brace for the starter gun in a race
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event is detected that violates the
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attention on a boring book, when we
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You have been invited to think of t
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Start beating a steady rhythm (or b
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main finding was that the ability t
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Another is the prefrontal area of t
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Accelerating beyond my strolling sp
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The list of indications of depletio
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answer have missed an obvious socia
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In one of the most famous experimen
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“Unfortunately, she tends to say
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notion that we have limited access
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Studies of priming effects have yie
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ox changed significantly. The poste
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strain is affected by both the curr
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legs in packages of four. System 2
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message want to stay away from anyt
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kadirga, saricik, biwonjni, nansoma
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These findings add to the growing e
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of circumstances, events, actions,
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understand that I mean a normal tab
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attributions: infants under one yea
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ut the middle items in both display
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Real evidence of generosity is miss
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This procedure makes good use of th
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WY SIATI to help explain a long and
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constantly evaluated as good or bad
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For another example, consider the q
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What level of income in your profes
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“The punishment won’t feel just
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How happy are you with your life th
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Figure 9 As printed on the page, is
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The results this time were complete
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“We are using last year’s perfo
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A study of the incidence of kidney
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Large samples are more precise than
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The message about the poll contains
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interviewing of the pilots should s
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“The sample of observations is to
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parent’s demand that it be played
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operation of System 1. Although I d
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Uses and Abuses of Anchors By now y
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“The firm we want to acquire sent
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A dramatic event temporarily increa
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instructed to contract the zygomati
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found it difficult to find eight in
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The most influential studies of ava
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Differences between experts and the
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actual damage to health appear not
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usiness administration computer sci
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You probably ranked computer scienc
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epresentativeness when we judge the
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laziness. Some people ignore base r
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“They keep making the same mistak
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In the language of this book, we ha
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Which alternative is more probable?
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Björn Borg was the dominant tennis
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information was laid out in front o
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85% of the cabs in the city are Gre
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Interest in cycling is widespread i
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not draw from base-rate information
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chosen another surprising psycholog
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officer in the room to turn his bac
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Now let us go against the time arro
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piano playing = age + weekly hours
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Our difficulties with the concept o
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“Perhaps his second interview was
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Intensity matching yields predictio
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their usual mission, which was to e
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A Defense of Extreme Predictions? I
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Perhaps the most valuable contribut
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Overconfidence The Illusion of Unde
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sentence about an intuition that tu
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Although hindsight and the outcome
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The basic message of Built to Last
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someone’s shoulders and jump acro
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In 1984, Amos and I and our friend
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Some years ago I had an unusual opp
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The idea that the future is unpredi
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Short-term trends can be forecast,
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unpredictability. We describe them
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the values to make them comparable
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Even after being informed that the
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only task was to elicit relevant fa
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Professional controversies bring ou
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Klein elaborated this description i
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Acquiring expertise in chess is har
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Feedback and Practice Some regulari
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It is difficult to reconstruct what
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within the optimistic consensus of
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about an individual case rarely fee
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The diagnosis of and the remedy for
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Seymour’s statistical summary. If
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The evidence suggests that an optim
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had failed. A common thread of bold
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The consequence of competition negl
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one’s self-image. In essence, the
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ut I can still recite its first sen
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most significant work we ever did,
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The expected value of the gamble an
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how the sure outcome differs from t
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for so long to see the obvious. Sti
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problem 4. Obviously, other example
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Loss Aversion Many of the options w
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Figure 10 shows an abrupt change in
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and the failure to acknowledge them
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Students learn in introductory econ
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Loss aversion implies only that cho
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would share a Nobel Prize many year
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The fundamental ideas of prospect t
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“He is a miser, and treats any do
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Some distinctions between good and
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Many of the messages that negotiato
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wage cut. The replacement worker ha
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The Fourfold Pattern Whenever you f
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probability leads to inconsistencie
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Table 4 You can see that the decisi
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Figure 13 The top row in each cel
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time to cut one’s losses. This is
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“We never let our vacations hang
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People overestimate the probabiliti
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depend only on probability, not on
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The new hypothesis is that there wi
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another: “1,000 Americans will di
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experiments on choice from experien
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combining the two decision problems
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You can see in the display that the
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detection. As expected, broad frami
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dollar, money is a proxy for points
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provide a strong incentive: realizi
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Regret is not the same as blame. Ot
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vaccine that is effective only befo
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with long-term consequences. Hindsi
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are absent, and of course WYSIATI.
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“How tall is John?” If John is
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the threat of skin cancer in farmwo
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As we have seen, rationality is gen
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Would you pay $5 to participate in
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thousands of such experiments, and
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If program B is adopted, there is a
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point, and they are not about the r
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large print, but the move is in the
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The term utility has had two distin
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Figure 15 When the procedure was ov
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not have a voice. The remembering s
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Other classic studies showed that e
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we want to know whether they were r
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How would this prospect affect your
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welcome in any of these situations.
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exposure to loud noise, time pressu
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The satiation level beyond which ex
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the exact question they were asked,
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didn’t get it were significantly
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thinks much about. Thoughts of any
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stories and makes choices, and neit
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The mirror image of the same bias m
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explains how a rational agent with
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Page 340 and 341: For an illustration of judgment by
Page 342 and 343: The values in parentheses are the n
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Page 354 and 355: W. Edwards, “Conservatism in Huma
Page 356 and 357: Daniel Kahneman and Amos Tversky AB
Page 358 and 359: Figure 1. A Hypothetical Value Func
Page 360 and 361: If Program B is adopted, there is a
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Page 364 and 365: In Figure 2, decision weights are l
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Page 372 and 373: The concepts of utility and value a
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Page 380 and 381: working memory: Baddeley, Working M
Page 382 and 383: think with your body: Paula M. Nied
Page 384 and 385: engaged and analytic mode: Adam L.
Page 388 and 389: “Assimilation and Contrast Effect
Page 390 and 391: self-assessed contributions: Michae
Page 392 and 393: always weighted more: Jonathan St.
Page 394 and 395: inequality of income (measured by s
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Page 402 and 403: “history of one’s wealth”: Ot
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Page 406 and 407: “acceptable/unacceptable”: Jos
Page 408 and 409: Samuel R. Gross and Kent D. Syverud
Page 410 and 411: “a sinking feeling”: Marcel Zee
Page 412 and 413: one embarrassing finding: Kuhn famo
Page 414 and 415: life as a whole these days: Another
Page 416 and 417: Los Angeles, Graduate School of Edu
Page 418 and 419: The index that appeared in the prin
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labor negotiations Lady Macbeth eff
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Mednick, Sarnoff Meehl, Paul meetin
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novelty Nudge (Thaler and Sunstein)
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t="-5%"> post-traumatic stress pove
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Rationality and the Reflective Mind
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Savage, Jimmie Save More Tomorrow S
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Steiger, James H. stereotypes; caus
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threats; possibility effect and 3-D
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wealth, see money and wealth weathe
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Grateful acknowledgment is made for
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Table of Contents Introduction 1. T
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Thank You W ant More Books? W e hop
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Thinking, Fast and Slow - Daniel Kahneman

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