Thinking, Fast and Slow - Daniel Kahneman

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t="-5%"> post-traumatic stress poverty precautionary principle predictability, insensitivity to predictions and forecasts; baseline; clinical vs. statistical; disciplining; of experts, see expert intuition; extreme, value of; formulas for, see formulas; increasing accuracy in; low-validity environments and; nonregressive; objections to moderating; optimistic bias in; outside view in; overconfidence in; planning fallacy and; shortterm trends and; valid, illusion of; see also probability preference reversals; unjust premonition, use of word premortem pretentiousness language pricing policies priming; anchoring as Princeton University probability; base rates in, see base rates; decision weights and, see decision weights; definitions of; and disciplining intuition; less-is-more pattern and; Linda problem and; overestimation of; plausibility and; and predicting by representativeness; prior, insensitivity to; professional stereotypes and; of rare events, see rare events; representativeness and, see representativeness; similarity and; subjective; as sum-like variable; see also predictions and forecasts probability neglect Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences professional stereotypes professorial candidates prospect theory; in Albert and Ben problem; blind spots of; cumulative; decision weights and probabilities in; fourfold pattern in; frames and; graph of losses and gains in; loss aversion in; reference points in
“Prospect Theory: An Analysis of Decision Under Risk” (Kahneman and Tversky) prototypes psychiatric patients psychological immune system psychology, teaching psychopathic charm psychophysics psychotherapists pundits; see also expert intuition punishments: altruistic; rewards and; selfadministered pupil dilation questionnaire and gift experiments questions; substitution of, see substitution Rabin, Matthew radiologists rafters, skilled rail projects randomness and chance; misconceptions of Random Walk Down Wall Street, A (Malkiel) rare events; overestimation of; regret and rational-agent model rationality
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A 1 E=mc 2 This eBook is provided b
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Contents Introduction Part I. Two S
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Part V. Two Selves 35. Two Selves 3
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So this is my aim for watercooler c
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participants in our experiments ign
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easy to identify a small change in
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From what we know about the accurac
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agents in classical economics and i
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Psychologists have been intensely i
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Brace for the starter gun in a race
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event is detected that violates the
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attention on a boring book, when we
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You have been invited to think of t
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Start beating a steady rhythm (or b
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main finding was that the ability t
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Another is the prefrontal area of t
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Accelerating beyond my strolling sp
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The list of indications of depletio
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answer have missed an obvious socia
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In one of the most famous experimen
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“Unfortunately, she tends to say
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notion that we have limited access
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Studies of priming effects have yie
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ox changed significantly. The poste
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strain is affected by both the curr
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legs in packages of four. System 2
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message want to stay away from anyt
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kadirga, saricik, biwonjni, nansoma
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These findings add to the growing e
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of circumstances, events, actions,
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understand that I mean a normal tab
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attributions: infants under one yea
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ut the middle items in both display
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Real evidence of generosity is miss
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This procedure makes good use of th
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WY SIATI to help explain a long and
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constantly evaluated as good or bad
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For another example, consider the q
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What level of income in your profes
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“The punishment won’t feel just
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How happy are you with your life th
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Figure 9 As printed on the page, is
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The results this time were complete
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“We are using last year’s perfo
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A study of the incidence of kidney
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Large samples are more precise than
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The message about the poll contains
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interviewing of the pilots should s
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“The sample of observations is to
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parent’s demand that it be played
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operation of System 1. Although I d
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Uses and Abuses of Anchors By now y
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“The firm we want to acquire sent
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A dramatic event temporarily increa
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instructed to contract the zygomati
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found it difficult to find eight in
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The most influential studies of ava
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Differences between experts and the
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actual damage to health appear not
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usiness administration computer sci
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You probably ranked computer scienc
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epresentativeness when we judge the
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laziness. Some people ignore base r
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“They keep making the same mistak
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In the language of this book, we ha
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Which alternative is more probable?
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Björn Borg was the dominant tennis
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information was laid out in front o
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85% of the cabs in the city are Gre
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Interest in cycling is widespread i
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not draw from base-rate information
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chosen another surprising psycholog
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officer in the room to turn his bac
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Now let us go against the time arro
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piano playing = age + weekly hours
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Our difficulties with the concept o
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“Perhaps his second interview was
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Intensity matching yields predictio
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their usual mission, which was to e
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A Defense of Extreme Predictions? I
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Perhaps the most valuable contribut
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Overconfidence The Illusion of Unde
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sentence about an intuition that tu
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Although hindsight and the outcome
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The basic message of Built to Last
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someone’s shoulders and jump acro
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In 1984, Amos and I and our friend
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Some years ago I had an unusual opp
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The idea that the future is unpredi
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Short-term trends can be forecast,
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unpredictability. We describe them
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the values to make them comparable
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Even after being informed that the
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only task was to elicit relevant fa
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Professional controversies bring ou
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Klein elaborated this description i
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Acquiring expertise in chess is har
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Feedback and Practice Some regulari
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It is difficult to reconstruct what
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within the optimistic consensus of
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about an individual case rarely fee
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The diagnosis of and the remedy for
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Seymour’s statistical summary. If
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The evidence suggests that an optim
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had failed. A common thread of bold
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The consequence of competition negl
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one’s self-image. In essence, the
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ut I can still recite its first sen
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most significant work we ever did,
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The expected value of the gamble an
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how the sure outcome differs from t
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for so long to see the obvious. Sti
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problem 4. Obviously, other example
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Loss Aversion Many of the options w
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Figure 10 shows an abrupt change in
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and the failure to acknowledge them
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Students learn in introductory econ
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Loss aversion implies only that cho
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would share a Nobel Prize many year
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The fundamental ideas of prospect t
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“He is a miser, and treats any do
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Some distinctions between good and
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Many of the messages that negotiato
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wage cut. The replacement worker ha
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The Fourfold Pattern Whenever you f
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probability leads to inconsistencie
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Table 4 You can see that the decisi
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Figure 13 The top row in each cel
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time to cut one’s losses. This is
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“We never let our vacations hang
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People overestimate the probabiliti
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depend only on probability, not on
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The new hypothesis is that there wi
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another: “1,000 Americans will di
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experiments on choice from experien
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combining the two decision problems
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You can see in the display that the
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detection. As expected, broad frami
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dollar, money is a proxy for points
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provide a strong incentive: realizi
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Regret is not the same as blame. Ot
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vaccine that is effective only befo
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with long-term consequences. Hindsi
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are absent, and of course WYSIATI.
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“How tall is John?” If John is
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the threat of skin cancer in farmwo
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As we have seen, rationality is gen
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Would you pay $5 to participate in
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thousands of such experiments, and
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If program B is adopted, there is a
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point, and they are not about the r
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large print, but the move is in the
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The term utility has had two distin
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Figure 15 When the procedure was ov
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not have a voice. The remembering s
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Other classic studies showed that e
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we want to know whether they were r
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How would this prospect affect your
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welcome in any of these situations.
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exposure to loud noise, time pressu
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The satiation level beyond which ex
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the exact question they were asked,
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didn’t get it were significantly
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thinks much about. Thoughts of any
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stories and makes choices, and neit
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The mirror image of the same bias m
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explains how a rational agent with
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The example of a regulation about t
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The way to block errors that origin
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For an illustration of judgment by
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The values in parentheses are the n
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The illusion of validity. As we hav
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elementary demonstration of this ef
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imagine than unlikely ones; and tha
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event. The chain-like structure of
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lines or pages. Thus, people do not
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W. Edwards, “Conservatism in Huma
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Daniel Kahneman and Amos Tversky AB
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Figure 1. A Hypothetical Value Func
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If Program B is adopted, there is a
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same cd Cce f pattern of results wa
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In Figure 2, decision weights are l
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attractive if it is described as ef
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making, play a role analogous to th
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disadvantages as losses. Because lo
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The concepts of utility and value a
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McNeil, B., S. Pauker, H. Sox Jr.,
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editor could do as much as Eric did
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Us (New York: Guilford Press, 1999)
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working memory: Baddeley, Working M
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think with your body: Paula M. Nied
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engaged and analytic mode: Adam L.
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descriptions of two people: Solomon
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“Assimilation and Contrast Effect
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self-assessed contributions: Michae
Page 392 and 393: always weighted more: Jonathan St.
Page 394 and 395: inequality of income (measured by s
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Page 398 and 399: moderated by an arbiter: Mellers, H
Page 400 and 401: admiration of others: Entrepreneurs
Page 402 and 403: “history of one’s wealth”: Ot
Page 404 and 405: half of the tokens will change hand
Page 406 and 407: “acceptable/unacceptable”: Jos
Page 408 and 409: Samuel R. Gross and Kent D. Syverud
Page 410 and 411: “a sinking feeling”: Marcel Zee
Page 412 and 413: one embarrassing finding: Kuhn famo
Page 414 and 415: life as a whole these days: Another
Page 416 and 417: Los Angeles, Graduate School of Edu
Page 418 and 419: The index that appeared in the prin
Page 420 and 421: availability; affect and; and aware
Page 422 and 423: oken-leg rule budget forecasts Buil
Page 424 and 425: cognitive illusions; confusing expe
Page 426 and 427: default options denominator neglect
Page 428 and 429: Epley, Nick Epstein, Seymour equal-
Page 430 and 431: forecasts, see predictions and fore
Page 432 and 433: grades and grade point averages (GP
Page 434 and 435: inheritances injection puzzle In Se
Page 436 and 437: labor negotiations Lady Macbeth eff
Page 438 and 439: Mednick, Sarnoff Meehl, Paul meetin
Page 440 and 441: novelty Nudge (Thaler and Sunstein)
Page 444 and 445: Rationality and the Reflective Mind
Page 446 and 447: Savage, Jimmie Save More Tomorrow S
Page 448 and 449: Steiger, James H. stereotypes; caus
Page 450 and 451: threats; possibility effect and 3-D
Page 452 and 453: wealth, see money and wealth weathe
Page 454 and 455: Grateful acknowledgment is made for
Page 457 and 458: Table of Contents Introduction 1. T
Page 459: Thank You W ant More Books? W e hop
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Thinking, Fast and Slow - Daniel Kahneman

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