Thinking, Fast and Slow - Daniel Kahneman

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Grateful acknowledgment is made for permission to reprint the following images: Image courtesy of Paul Ekman Group, LLC. Image from “Cues of Being Watched Enhance Cooperation in a Real-World Setting” by Melissa Bateson, Daniel Nettle, and Gilbert Roberts, Biology Letters (2006); reprinted by permission of Biology Letters. Image from Mind Sights by Roger N. Shepard (New York: W.H. Freeman and Company, 1990); reprinted by permission of Henry Holt and Company. Image from “Human Amygdala Responsivity to Masked Fearful Eye Whites” by Paul J. Whalen et al., Science 306 (2004). Reprinted by permission of Science. Kahneman, Daniel, 1934– Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data Thinking, fast and slow / Daniel Kahneman.—1st ed. p. cm. Includes bibliographical references and index. ISBN: 978-0-3742-7563-1 1. Thought and thinking. 2. Decision making. 3. Intuition. 4. Reasoning. I. Title. BF441 .K238 2011 153.4'2—dc23 www.fsgbooks.com 2011027143
* This article originally appeared in Science, vol. 185, 1974. The research was supported by the Advanced Research Projects Agency of the Department of Defense and was monitored by the Office of Naval Research under contract N00014-73-C-0438 to the Oregon Research Institute, Eugene. Additional support for this research wass r"0%" wid provided by the Research and Development Authority of the Hebrew University, Jerusalem, Israel. * This article was originally presented as a Distinguished Scientific Contributions Award address at the American Psychological Association meeting, August 1983. This work was supported by grant NR 197-058 from the U.S. Office of Naval Research. Originally published in American Psychologist, vol. 34, 1984.
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A 1 E=mc 2 This eBook is provided b
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Contents Introduction Part I. Two S
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Part V. Two Selves 35. Two Selves 3
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So this is my aim for watercooler c
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participants in our experiments ign
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easy to identify a small change in
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From what we know about the accurac
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agents in classical economics and i
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Psychologists have been intensely i
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Brace for the starter gun in a race
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event is detected that violates the
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attention on a boring book, when we
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You have been invited to think of t
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Start beating a steady rhythm (or b
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main finding was that the ability t
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Another is the prefrontal area of t
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Accelerating beyond my strolling sp
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The list of indications of depletio
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answer have missed an obvious socia
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In one of the most famous experimen
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“Unfortunately, she tends to say
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notion that we have limited access
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Studies of priming effects have yie
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ox changed significantly. The poste
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strain is affected by both the curr
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legs in packages of four. System 2
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message want to stay away from anyt
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kadirga, saricik, biwonjni, nansoma
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These findings add to the growing e
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of circumstances, events, actions,
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understand that I mean a normal tab
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attributions: infants under one yea
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ut the middle items in both display
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Real evidence of generosity is miss
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This procedure makes good use of th
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WY SIATI to help explain a long and
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constantly evaluated as good or bad
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For another example, consider the q
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What level of income in your profes
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“The punishment won’t feel just
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How happy are you with your life th
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Figure 9 As printed on the page, is
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The results this time were complete
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“We are using last year’s perfo
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A study of the incidence of kidney
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Large samples are more precise than
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The message about the poll contains
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interviewing of the pilots should s
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“The sample of observations is to
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parent’s demand that it be played
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operation of System 1. Although I d
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Uses and Abuses of Anchors By now y
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“The firm we want to acquire sent
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A dramatic event temporarily increa
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instructed to contract the zygomati
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found it difficult to find eight in
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The most influential studies of ava
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Differences between experts and the
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actual damage to health appear not
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usiness administration computer sci
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You probably ranked computer scienc
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epresentativeness when we judge the
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laziness. Some people ignore base r
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“They keep making the same mistak
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In the language of this book, we ha
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Which alternative is more probable?
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Björn Borg was the dominant tennis
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information was laid out in front o
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85% of the cabs in the city are Gre
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Interest in cycling is widespread i
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not draw from base-rate information
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chosen another surprising psycholog
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officer in the room to turn his bac
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Now let us go against the time arro
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piano playing = age + weekly hours
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Our difficulties with the concept o
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“Perhaps his second interview was
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Intensity matching yields predictio
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their usual mission, which was to e
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A Defense of Extreme Predictions? I
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Perhaps the most valuable contribut
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Overconfidence The Illusion of Unde
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sentence about an intuition that tu
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Although hindsight and the outcome
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The basic message of Built to Last
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someone’s shoulders and jump acro
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In 1984, Amos and I and our friend
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Some years ago I had an unusual opp
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The idea that the future is unpredi
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Short-term trends can be forecast,
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unpredictability. We describe them
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the values to make them comparable
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Even after being informed that the
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only task was to elicit relevant fa
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Professional controversies bring ou
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Klein elaborated this description i
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Acquiring expertise in chess is har
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Feedback and Practice Some regulari
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It is difficult to reconstruct what
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within the optimistic consensus of
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about an individual case rarely fee
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The diagnosis of and the remedy for
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Seymour’s statistical summary. If
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The evidence suggests that an optim
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had failed. A common thread of bold
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The consequence of competition negl
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one’s self-image. In essence, the
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ut I can still recite its first sen
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most significant work we ever did,
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The expected value of the gamble an
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how the sure outcome differs from t
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for so long to see the obvious. Sti
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problem 4. Obviously, other example
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Loss Aversion Many of the options w
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Figure 10 shows an abrupt change in
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and the failure to acknowledge them
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Students learn in introductory econ
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Loss aversion implies only that cho
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would share a Nobel Prize many year
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The fundamental ideas of prospect t
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“He is a miser, and treats any do
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Some distinctions between good and
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Many of the messages that negotiato
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wage cut. The replacement worker ha
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The Fourfold Pattern Whenever you f
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probability leads to inconsistencie
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Table 4 You can see that the decisi
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Figure 13 The top row in each cel
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time to cut one’s losses. This is
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“We never let our vacations hang
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People overestimate the probabiliti
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depend only on probability, not on
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The new hypothesis is that there wi
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another: “1,000 Americans will di
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experiments on choice from experien
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combining the two decision problems
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You can see in the display that the
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detection. As expected, broad frami
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dollar, money is a proxy for points
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provide a strong incentive: realizi
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Regret is not the same as blame. Ot
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vaccine that is effective only befo
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with long-term consequences. Hindsi
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are absent, and of course WYSIATI.
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“How tall is John?” If John is
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the threat of skin cancer in farmwo
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As we have seen, rationality is gen
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Would you pay $5 to participate in
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thousands of such experiments, and
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If program B is adopted, there is a
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point, and they are not about the r
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large print, but the move is in the
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The term utility has had two distin
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Figure 15 When the procedure was ov
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not have a voice. The remembering s
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Other classic studies showed that e
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we want to know whether they were r
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How would this prospect affect your
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welcome in any of these situations.
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exposure to loud noise, time pressu
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The satiation level beyond which ex
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the exact question they were asked,
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didn’t get it were significantly
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thinks much about. Thoughts of any
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stories and makes choices, and neit
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The mirror image of the same bias m
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explains how a rational agent with
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The example of a regulation about t
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The way to block errors that origin
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For an illustration of judgment by
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The values in parentheses are the n
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The illusion of validity. As we hav
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elementary demonstration of this ef
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imagine than unlikely ones; and tha
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event. The chain-like structure of
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lines or pages. Thus, people do not
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W. Edwards, “Conservatism in Huma
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Daniel Kahneman and Amos Tversky AB
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Figure 1. A Hypothetical Value Func
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If Program B is adopted, there is a
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same cd Cce f pattern of results wa
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In Figure 2, decision weights are l
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attractive if it is described as ef
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making, play a role analogous to th
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disadvantages as losses. Because lo
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The concepts of utility and value a
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McNeil, B., S. Pauker, H. Sox Jr.,
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editor could do as much as Eric did
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Us (New York: Guilford Press, 1999)
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working memory: Baddeley, Working M
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think with your body: Paula M. Nied
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engaged and analytic mode: Adam L.
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descriptions of two people: Solomon
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“Assimilation and Contrast Effect
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self-assessed contributions: Michae
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always weighted more: Jonathan St.
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inequality of income (measured by s
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outsiders, recruiting CEOs from com
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moderated by an arbiter: Mellers, H
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admiration of others: Entrepreneurs
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“history of one’s wealth”: Ot
Page 404 and 405: half of the tokens will change hand
Page 406 and 407: “acceptable/unacceptable”: Jos
Page 408 and 409: Samuel R. Gross and Kent D. Syverud
Page 410 and 411: “a sinking feeling”: Marcel Zee
Page 412 and 413: one embarrassing finding: Kuhn famo
Page 414 and 415: life as a whole these days: Another
Page 416 and 417: Los Angeles, Graduate School of Edu
Page 418 and 419: The index that appeared in the prin
Page 420 and 421: availability; affect and; and aware
Page 422 and 423: oken-leg rule budget forecasts Buil
Page 424 and 425: cognitive illusions; confusing expe
Page 426 and 427: default options denominator neglect
Page 428 and 429: Epley, Nick Epstein, Seymour equal-
Page 430 and 431: forecasts, see predictions and fore
Page 432 and 433: grades and grade point averages (GP
Page 434 and 435: inheritances injection puzzle In Se
Page 436 and 437: labor negotiations Lady Macbeth eff
Page 438 and 439: Mednick, Sarnoff Meehl, Paul meetin
Page 440 and 441: novelty Nudge (Thaler and Sunstein)
Page 442 and 443: t="-5%"> post-traumatic stress pove
Page 444 and 445: Rationality and the Reflective Mind
Page 446 and 447: Savage, Jimmie Save More Tomorrow S
Page 448 and 449: Steiger, James H. stereotypes; caus
Page 450 and 451: threats; possibility effect and 3-D
Page 452 and 453: wealth, see money and wealth weathe
Page 457 and 458: Table of Contents Introduction 1. T
Page 459: Thank You W ant More Books? W e hop
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