Thinking, Fast and Slow - Daniel Kahneman

“Assimilation and Contrast Effects in Part-Whole Question Sequences: A Conversational
Logic Analysis,” Public Opinion Quarterly 55 (1991): 3–23.
evaluate their happiness: A telephone survey conducted in Germany included a question about
general happiness. When the self-reports of happiness were correlated with the local weather at
the time of the interview, a pronounced correlation was found. Mood is known to vary with the
weather, and substitution explains the effect on reported happiness. However, another version
of the telephone survey yielded a somewhat different result. These respondents were asked
about the current weather before they were asked the happiness quest {ppiournal ofion. For
them, weather had no effect at all on reported happiness! The explicit priming of weather
provided them with an explanation of their mood, undermining the connection that would
normally be made between current mood and overall happiness.
view of the benefits: Melissa L. Finucane et al., “The Affect Heuristic in Judgments of Risks
and Benefits,” Journal of Behavioral Decision Making 13 (2000): 1–17.
10: The Law of Small Numbers
“It is both…without additives”: Howard Wainer and Harris L. Zwerling, “Evidence That
Smaller Schools Do Not Improve Student Achievement,” Phi Delta Kappan 88 (2006): 300–
303. The example was discussed by Andrew Gelman and Deborah Nolan, Teaching Statistics:
A Bag of Tricks (New York: Oxford University Press, 2002).
50% risk of failing: Jacob Cohen, “The Statistical Power of Abnormal-Social Psychological
Research: A Review,” Journal of Abnormal and Social Psychology 65 (1962): 145–53.
“Belief in the Law of Small Numbers”: Amos Tversky and Daniel Kahneman, “Belief in the
Law of Small Numbers,” Psychological Bulletin 76 (1971): 105–10.
“statistical intuitions…whenever possible”: The contrast that we drew between intuition and
computation seems to foreshadow the distinction between Systems 1 and 2, but we were a long
way from the perspective of this book. We used intuition to cover anything but a computation,
any informal way to reach a conclusion.
German spies: William Feller, Introduction to Probability Theory and Its Applications (New
York: Wiley, 1950).
randomness in basketball: Thomas Gilovich, Robert Vallone, and Amos Tversky, “The Hot
Hand in Basketball: On the Misperception of Random Sequences,” Cognitive Psychology 17
(1985): 295–314.
11: Anchors