Thinking, Fast and Slow - Daniel Kahneman

admiration of others: Entrepreneurs who have failed are sustained in their confidence by the
probably mistaken belief that they have learned a great deal from the experience. Gavin Cassar
and Justin Craig, “An Investigation of Hindsight Bias in Nascent Venture Activity,” Journal of
Business Venturing 24 ( {>
influence on the lives of others: Keith M. Hmieleski and Robert A. Baron, “Entrepreneurs’
Optimism and New Venture Performance: A Social Cognitive Perspective,” Academy of
Management Journal 52 (2009): 473–88. Matthew L. A. Hayward, Dean A. Shepherd, and
Dale Griffin, “A Hubris Theory of Entrepreneurship,” Management Science 52 (2006): 160–
72.
chance of failing was zero: Arnold C. Cooper, Carolyn Y. Woo, and William C. Dunkelberg,
“Entrepreneurs’ Perceived Chances for Success,” Journal of Business Venturing 3 (1988): 97–
108.
given the lowest grade: Thomas Astebro and Samir Elhedhli, “The Effectiveness of Simple
Decision Heuristics: Forecasting Commercial Success for Early-Stage Ventures,” Management
Science 52 (2006): 395–409.
widespread, stubborn, and costly: Thomas Astebro, “The Return to Independent Invention:
Evidence of Unrealistic Optimism, Risk Seeking or Skewness Loving?” Economic Journal 113
(2003): 226–39.
bet small amounts of money: Eleanor F. Williams and Thomas Gilovich, “Do People Really
Believe They Are Above Average?” Journal of Experimental Social Psychology 44 (2008):
1121–28.
“hubris hypothesis”: Richard Roll, “The Hubris Hypothesis of Corporate Takeovers,” Journal
of Business 59 (1986): 197–216, part 1. This remarkable early article presented a behavioral
analysis of mergers and acquisitions that abandoned the assumption of rationality, long before
such analyses became popular.
“value-destroying mergers”: Ulrike Malmendier and Geoffrey Tate, “Who Makes
Acquisitions? CEO Overconfidence and the Market’s Reaction,” Journal of Financial
Economics 89 (2008): 20–43.
“engage in earnings management”: Ulrike Malmendier and Geoffrey Tate, “Superstar CEOs,”
Quarterly Journal of Economics 24 (2009), 1593–1638.
self-aggrandizement to a cognitive bias: Paul D. Windschitl, Jason P. Rose, Michael T. Stalkfleet,
and Andrew R. Smith, “Are People Excessive or Judicious in Their Egocentrism? A
Modeling Approach to Understanding Bias and Accuracy in People’s Optimism,” Journal of
Personality and Social Psychology 95 (2008): 252–73.
average outcome is a loss: A form of competition neglect has also been observed in the time of
day at which sellers on eBay choose to end their auctions. The easy question is: At what time
is the total number of bidders the highest? Answer: around 7:00 p.m. EST. The question sellers
should answer is harder: Considering how many other sellers end their auctions during peak