Thinking, Fast and Slow - Daniel Kahneman

moderated by an arbiter: Mellers, Hertwig, and Kahneman, “Do Frequency Representations
Eliminate Conjunction Effects?”
articulated this position: Klein, Sources of Power.
kouros: The Getty Museum in Los Angeles brings in the world’s leading experts on Greek
sculpture to view a kouros—a marble statue of a striding boy—that it is about to buy. One after
another, the experts react with what one calls “intuitive repulsion”—a powerful hunch that the
kouros is not 2,500 years old but a modern fake. None of the experts can immediately say why
they think the sculpture is a forgery. The closest any of them could come to a rationale is an
Italian art historian’s complaint that something—he does not know exactly what—“seemed
wrong” with the statue’s fingernails. A famous American expert said that the first thought that
came to his mind was the word fresh, and a Greek expert flatly stated, “Anyone who has ever
seen a sculpture coming out of the ground could tell that that thing has never been in the
ground.” The lack of agreement on the reasons for the shared conclusion is striking, and rather
suspect.
admired as a hero: Simon was one of the towering intellectual figures of the twentieth century.
He wrote a classic on decision making in organizations while still in his twenties, and among
many other achievements he went on to be one of the founders of the field of artificial
intelligence, a leader in cognitive science, an influential student of the process of scientific
discovery, a forerunner of behavioral economics and, almost incidentally, a Nobel laureate in
economics.
“nothing less than recognition”: Simon, “What Is an Explanation of Behavior?” David G.
Myers, Intuition: Its Powers and Perils (New Haven: Yale University Press, 2002), 56.
“without knowing how he knows”: Seymour Epstein, “Demystifying Intuition: What It Is,
What It Does, How It Does It,” Psychological Inquiry 21 (2010): 295–312.
10,000 hours: Foer, Moonwalking with Einstein.
23: The Outside View
inside view and the outside view: The labels are often misunderstood. Numerous authors
believed that the correct terms were “insider view” and “outsider view,” which are not even
close to what we had in mind.
very different answers: Dan Lovallo and Daniel Kahneman, “Timid Choices and Bold
Forecasts: A Cognitive Perspective on Risk Taking,” Management Science 39 (1993): 17–31.
Daniel Kahneman and Dan Lovallo, “Delusions of Success: How Optimism Undermines
Executives’ Decisions,” Harvard Business Review 81 (2003): 56–63.